While the administration said at least 50 nations had reached out to start negotiations, Canada and the European Union were planning to follow China’s lead and readying retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. Vietnam has offered already to cut tariffs on the U.S. to zero, according to Trump, but they appeared to be the exception so far.

Fears grew on Wall Street that the sell-off would feed on itself with hedge funds forced to sell down equities and other risky assets to raise cash and meet margin calls. And there were worries that the rapid stock market decline would lead to a vicious circle that would hit the U.S. consumer even before tariffs had an impact.

Billionaire hedge fund investor Bill Ackman, who endorsed President Trump last year, is offering a stark warning about the risks of the White House’s tariff plans, arguing they could cause the economy to collapse while hurting Trump supporters the most.

“Business is a confidence game. The president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe. The consequences for our country and the millions of our citizens who have supported the president — in particular low-income consumers who are already under a huge amount of economic stress — are going to be severely negative,” he wrote.

Ackman began a lengthy post on the social platform X by praising Trump’s strategy, arguing the nation is “100%” behind Trump on fixing a trading system that disadvantages the country.

But while Trump has elevated the issue and gotten everyone’s attention, “by placing massive and disproportionate tariffs on our friends and our enemies alike and thereby launching a global economic war against the whole world at once, we are in the process of destroying confidence in our country as a trading partner, as a place to do business, and as a market to invest capital,” Ackman wrote.

He argued that Trump should consider calling a “90-day time out” that would allow him to negotiate and solve “asymmetric tariff deals, and induce trillions of dollars of new investment in our country.”

If that doesn’t happen and instead the U.S. launches “economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocket books, and we will severely damage our reputation with the rest of the world that will take years and potentially decades to rehabilitate,” Ackman wrote.

“What CEO and what board of directors will be comfortable making large, long-term, economic commitments in our country in the middle of an economic nuclear war? I don’t know of one who will do so.”

Ackman predicted that if markets crash, “new investment stops, consumers stop spending money, and businesses have no choice but to curtail investment and fire workers.”

So far, markets have plunged for two days in reaction to the large tariffs Trump announced, with futures down significantly on Sunday evening ahead of the Monday morning open.

Ackman argued big companies as well as small and medium-sized businesses and entrepreneurs will suffer pain if the negative consequences unfold. And he predicted prices will rise, something Trump officials on Sunday were downplaying.

“Almost no business can pass through an overnight massive increase in costs to their customers. And that’s true even if they have no debt, and, unfortunately, there is a massive amount of leverage in the system,” he wrote.

Ackman also warned that Trump risks causing negative consequences for those who support him.

“This is not what we voted for. The President has an opportunity on Monday to call a time out and have the time to execute on fixing an unfair tariff system. Alternatively, we are heading for a self-induced, economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down. May cooler heads prevail.”

One of Wall Street’s most bullish Tesla Inc. analysts slashed his price target for the stock by 43%, citing a brand crisis created by Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk and US President Donald Trump’s trade policies.

• Global tariffs announced on April 3rd caused significant market declines, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all experiencing substantial losses.
• Immediate sell-offs especially hit sectors reliant on global supply chains.
• This list contains stocks that are resilient to the current uncertainty and could even benefit from it, also offering attractive valuation.

LIST

1st Pick: Euronext (OTCPK:EUXTF)

2nd Pick: 3i Group (OTCPK:TGOPF)

3rd Pick: Amazon (AMZN)

4th Pick: Google (GOOG)

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the Trump administration will remain steadfast in its reciprocal tariffs on major U.S. trading partners even in the face of a global stock market sell-off.

“The tariffs are coming,” Lutnick said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” Sunday. “He announced it, and he wasn’t kidding. The tariffs are coming. Of course they are.”

The White House is not considering an extension of the start deadline, he added.

“There is no postponing. They are definitely going to stay in place for days and weeks,” Lutnick said. “The president needs to reset global trade. Everybody has a trade surplus and we have a trade deficit.”

Stocks like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AIFU will be in the swamp.

Jim Cramer says US stocks could drop by 22% on Monday!

He warns of a potential "1987-like Black Monday" crash.

But is this really going to happen, or could we see the reverse?

President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcement set in motion one of the most punishing stock-market selloffs since March 2020, when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic upended the global economy.

And China’s decision to retaliate with a 34% tariff on U.S. imports caused the stock-market rout to deepen on Friday.

By the time the closing bell rang, the market appeared to be entering what Turnquist described as “washed-out territory.”

A few indicators pointed to this. The Cboe Volatility Index $VIX + 50.93%, better known as Wall Street’s ”fear gauge” or the VIX, finished north of 40 on Friday. That was its highest end-of-day level since April 2020, FactSet data showed.

President Trump just hit the markets with a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, with much higher rates for certain countries:

🇨🇳 China – 34% (on top of the existing 20%, total = 54%)

🇪🇺 EU – 20%

🇻🇳 Vietnam – 46%

🇹🇼 Taiwan – 32%

🇯🇵 Japan – 24%

🇮🇳 India – 26%

🇰🇷 South Korea – 25%

🇹🇭 Thailand – 36%

🇨🇭 Switzerland – 31%

🇮🇩 Indonesia – 32%

🇲🇾 Malaysia – 24%

🇰🇭 Cambodia – 49%

🇬🇧 UK – 10%

🇨🇦 🇲🇽 Canada & Mexico – No changes, but auto tariffs remain at 25%.

The 10% base tariff kicks in this Saturday, and the country-specific tariffs go live on April 9. That means there’s still time for negotiations (or at least some political maneuvering before things get final).

Market Reaction & What It Means for Investors

Markets tanked in after-hours trading:

📉 S&P 500 -1.6%

📉 Nasdaq -2.1%

📉 Russell 2000 -1.9%

💰 Dollar -0.5%

🪙 Gold +1.4%

📉 10-year Treasury Yield -4 bps

This is worse than what Wall Street expected, especially for European and Japanese stocks, which could face even more pressure. But one key takeaway: major U.S. imports like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are exempt. That’s a strategic move—hurting China but keeping U.S. supply chains intact where it matters most.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Outlook

Right now, investors are worried about a global slowdown. The market is already nervous about a potential recession, and these tariffs just add fuel to the fire.

🔸 Short term: If this trade war escalates, expect more volatility.

🔸 Long term: If Trump’s goal is to push bond yields lower and create a “controlled recession,” Q2 could be rough. But that could also set up the Fed for rate cuts—and eventually, a market rebound.

One thing’s for sure: don’t fight Trump. Markets will be chaotic, and his policies can swing sentiment fast. If economic data weakens in May, we could see the “Fed Put” followed by a Trump-driven rally later in the year.

Bottom line?

📌 Buy the dip on U.S. stocks strategically.

📌 Diversify with bonds & gold.

📌 Stay nimble—big moves are coming.

Note: The image is merely a MEME and does not contain any actual information.

The odds of a global recession will rise to 60% if President Donald Trump’s tariff plan goes forward as initially presented, according to Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan.

Kasman previously had the likelihood set at 40%.

“We are not making immediate changes to our forecasts and want to see the initial implementation and negotiation process that takes hold. However, we view the full implementation of announced policies as a substantial macroeconomic shock not currently incorporated in our forecasts,” he wrote to clients in a Thursday note. “We thus emphasize that these policies, if sustained, would likely push the [U.S.] and possibly global economy into recession this year.”

I. Business Advantages: Why Are the Three Moats in My Eyes Difficult to Shake?

As an analyst tracking the eVTOL track, I have always believed that EHang's moat has not been fully priced by the market. The following is the core logic supporting my judgment:

1.Resonance between Demand and Policy: The "Favorable Timing and Location" of the Low-altitude Economy

●Market Size Estimation: I have observed that the global eVTOL market is expanding at an annualized rate of 45% (from $35 billion in 2025 to $300 billion in 2030), and the policy support in the Chinese market far exceeds expectations. In 2024, the "Government Work Report" listed the low-altitude economy as a "new growth engine" for the first time, and subsidy policies in local governments such as Guangzhou and Hefei (with a maximum subsidy of 30 million yuan per project) have entered the practical operation stage. This pattern of dual-wheel drive by policy and market leads me to define 2025 as the "first year of commercialization of the low-altitude economy."

●EHang's Positioning Advantage: While its peers are still struggling with airworthiness certification, EHang has already obtained four major certificates: TC, PC, AC, and OC. This means that while its competitors' products are still being debugged in the laboratory, EHang's EH216-S can already charge for passenger transport in the pilot areas of Hefei and Shenzhen. This time difference brings at least a 2-3 year exclusive period, which is sufficient to capture early high-profit scenarios (such as scenic area sightseeing and high-end commuting).

2.Technological Iteration: Breaking through the "Life and Death Line" of Endurance and Cost

●The data of solid-state batteries surprised me: In November 2024, the EH216-S equipped with the battery from the Hefei Research Institute had an endurance of 48 minutes (a 60% increase compared to the original model), and the test team privately revealed that the target of the third-generation battery to be mass-produced in 2025 is directly 60 minutes. This means that a single flight can cover the straight-line distance from Shanghai Pudong to Hongqiao (37 kilometers), which may open up the imagination space of Urban Air Mobility (UAM).

●The evidence of cost reduction in the supply chain: The motor jointly developed with Zhuhai Enpower is expected to reduce the cost of the power system by 20%. In my research, I found that the unit cost of EHang in 2024 has dropped from 1.8 million yuan to 1.55 million yuan. With the commissioning of the automated production line (the second phase of the Yunfu base), the cost is expected to be reduced to below 1.4 million yuan in 2025, which is crucial for the overall gross profit margin to return to 65%.

3.Production Capacity and Orders: From "Telling Stories" to "Real Delivery"

●The delivery data refutes the doubters: EHang delivered 78 aircraft in Q4 2024 (a year-on-year increase of 239%), and the annual delivery of 216 aircraft far exceeded the market's initial expectation of 150 aircraft at the beginning of the year. More importantly, the order structure has shifted from government pilot projects to commercial customers. Xiangyuan Culture and Tourism signed a contract for 200 aircraft at one time for scenic area operation, and the sightseeing projects in multiple cities have generated stable cash flow.

●The production capacity layout reveals ambition: I have visited the Yunfu base on the spot, and the debugging progress of its automated assembly line is one month faster than expected. After the production capacity of 1,000 aircraft is realized in 2025, with the regional coverage of the Hefei/Weihai bases, EHang is fully capable of increasing the delivery volume to 3,000 aircraft within 2 years, which will be 3 times the current market consensus.

II. Financial Verification: Why Do I Think the Profit Inflection Point Has Arrived?

Facing the financial report data, the market is always torn about the "GAAP loss", but my model shows that the non-GAAP profit is the real signal:

1. Revenue Explosion: eVTOL Has Transformed from a "PPT" to a "Money Printer"

●In the company's revenue of 456 million yuan in 2024, Q4 accounted for 36% (164 million yuan), verifying the effect of production capacity ramping up. According to the current delivery rhythm, I estimate that the revenue in Q1 2025 will exceed 200 million yuan (a month-on-month increase of 22%). The annual guidance of 900 million yuan is on the conservative side. And now that the OC certificate has been approved as scheduled, it shows that the revenue from operation services is feasible. Assuming that the annual revenue per aircraft is 2 million yuan, if it can cover 3,000 scenic areas (5 aircraft per scenic area), the potential scale of operation revenue is about 30 billion yuan, which will open up the second growth curve.

1. The Mystery of Gross Profit Margin: Short-term Pain, Long-term Brightness

●Many people are worried about the decline of the gross profit margin from 64.1% to 61.4%, but when I disassembled the cost structure, I found that the one-time investment in the airworthiness modification of EH216-S has pushed up the unit cost, and this factor will be eliminated in Q2 2025. More importantly, the gross profit margin of operation services can be as high as 75% (only 58% for hardware). As the proportion of service revenue increases from 5% to 20%, the overall gross profit margin may return to over 65% by the end of 2025.

1. Cash Generation Ability: An Underestimated Survival Chip

●EHang's operating cash flow has been positive for 5 consecutive quarters, and the cash on hand of 1.155 billion yuan is sufficient to cover 3 years of R&D investment. Compared with Joby Aviation, which burns money at an astonishing speed (an annual loss of $400 million), EHang's "self-cash generation" ability makes me think highly of its risk resistance.

III. Valuation Divergence: Where Exactly Is the Market Wrong?

Currently, EHang's market value corresponds to a PS of only 15 times in 2025, while that of its peer Joby is as high as 69 times. This huge disparity puzzled me until I discovered two major cognitive differences:

1.The Market Underestimates China's Policy Execution Ability

Overseas investors have difficulty understanding the promotion speed of the "Chinese low-altitude economy". Shenzhen has built the world's first city-level low-altitude dispatching system, and Hefei plans to lay out 500 takeoff and landing points in 2025. The implementation of these infrastructure projects will directly increase the utilization rate of eVTOL, while their counterparts in Europe and the United States are still arguing with the FAA about the regulatory framework.

2.The Revenue from Operation Services Has Not Been Priced

The current valuation only reflects hardware sales, but EHang is piloting a "profit-sharing model" in scenic areas such as the Dabie Mountains (a 30% commission on each flight revenue). If this model works, the proportion of operation revenue will exceed 20% in 2025, and the valuation system will shift to that of a SaaS company (8-10 times PS), which means at least a 50% room for correction.

IV. Risk Warnings: The Three Major Risk Points I Closely Track

Although I am optimistic in the long term, I do not shy away from risks. The following are the variables that may subvert the logic:

1.The Mass Production of Solid-state Batteries Is Delayed: The technical route of the Hefei Research Institute has not been tested in winter low temperatures. If it cannot be mass-produced in Q3 2025, the endurance advantage will be diluted.

2.Local Government Debt Drags Down Infrastructure Construction: The construction of low-altitude takeoff and landing points depends on government investment. If the fiscal policy is tightened, it may lead to lower-than-expected implementation of scenarios.

3.Intensified Competition: The entry of international competitors such as Joby (PS 69 times) and domestic competitors such as XPeng Aeroht (with pre-sales exceeding 3,000 aircraft) may squeeze market share and affect the valuation premium.

Conclusion: My Positioning Strategy and Key Nodes

As an analyst with a heavy position in EHang, my operation logic is very clear:

●In the short term: The approval of the OC certificate (Q1 2025) and the delivery volume in Q1 (target of more than 200 aircraft) are the catalysts for the stock price. If the stock price falls below the 20-day moving average, reduce the position periodically.

●In the long term: Hold until the end of 2025. The target price corresponds to a PS of 8 times in 2026 (revenue of 2 billion yuan), and the expected upside is 120%.

Finally, a reminder: eVTOL is not a short-term speculation concept, and one needs to endure the fluctuations of policy and technological iteration. But if you believe that the urban sky will eventually be reshaped, EHang may be the sharpest spear in the next decade.

Tesla’s deliveries tumbled in the first three months of this year, marking its worst quarter since 2022, as the electric-vehicle maker faced a consumer backlash in Europe, fierce competition in China and weakness even in its home market.

The Texas-based EV group, led by Elon Musk, delivered 336,681 cars in the first quarter, far fewer than the 390,000 forecast by analysts and 387,000 in the same period last year.

The figure lagged behind that of China’s BYD, which has regained its crown as the world’s best-selling electric-vehicle maker after this week reporting sales of 416,388 EVs in the same period.

Tesla shares briefly dipped by 6.3 per cent in early trading in New York on Wednesday but later rose more than 5 per cent after Politico reported that US President Donald Trump had told his inner circle Musk would soon leave the administration.

Musk’s alliance with Trump and his controversial leadership of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) have caused a backlash in the US, with dealerships being picketed and cars vandalised.

President Donald Trump’s so-called Liberation Day is coming on April 2, with the launch of his new reciprocal tariffs. Investors are hoping for freedom from the cloud of uncertainty that has been hanging over the economy.

As Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin put it last week in explaining monetary policymakers’ cautious new outlook, “How does one drive in fog? Carefully and slowly.”

But the fog may lift only to roll right back in. The details of those tariffs won’t be the last policy hit to the market from the new administration. Politics is creeping into the market through just about every asset class—and more than usual, some experts say. The markets for U.S. Treasuries and gold, and to some degree in stocks, are dependent on the fragile mood in the country and the fight over political institutions.

The U.S. is “basically looking more and more like an emerging market,” political scientist Mark Rosenberg says.

“You have higher policy uncertainty, you have greater questions about rule of law, you have concerns about the ability of the state to tackle its fiscal problems, a dysfunctional political environment,” Rosenberg says. “All the stuff that you would get if you were talking about South Africa or Brazil.”

Rosenberg’s firm, GeoQuant, builds models of political risk. It quantifies legal, social, and other similar sources of data for countries around the world, including the U.S. His clients use those indicators as early-warning signs of risk in countries of interest and as aids in portfolio allocation. Fitch acquired the company in 2022.

The difference between developed and emerging markets for Rosenberg is in how much politics matters to market outcomes. “In an emerging market, elections matter a whole lot more,” Rosenberg says, “because the underlying social instability and institutional uncertainty mean that a political contest like an election can produce a very large policy swing and/or a changing of the rules of the game for the political economy, which you just would never anticipate in a developed market.”

Policy just about always changes in the U.S. after an election, and uncertainty is natural. April 2 is tariff day because April 1 is the deadline for a set of trade reports and investigations that will determine tariffs’ legal and policy basis. (Also, the president wanted to avoid April Fools’ Day.) Normal enough.

Then, apparently, everything gets filtered through Trump’s personal feelings about world leaders. Canada’s Justin Trudeau gets called “governor” in a “joke” about the 51st state, while Mark Carney, who now leads the same party and has the same job, is “prime minister.” Meanwhile, U.S. companies need to jump through new regulatory hoops to get their exports certified under the USMCA trade deal so they can avoid 25% tariffs.

There are always periods of extreme politics under any president. But you don’t usually have that alongside the kind of battle that is going on over Elon Musk. And that one goes straight to the deficit. The Tesla CEO is also running DOGE, an initiative to slash government spending.

The “Tesla Takedown” drew protesters around the country on Saturday, animated by opposition to cuts to the federal government driven by Musk and DOGE. That protest movement has accelerated despite warnings from officials such as U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi, who on March 18 said “violent attacks on Tesla property” are” “nothing short of domestic terrorism.” (Nonviolent protest is a constitutional right.)

Tesla’s market capitalization has fallen by $500 billion since the Jan. 20 Inauguration.

But Musk is also the administration’s point man for cost-cutting. He and DOGE are the only hope for deficits to fall since Congress’s latest plans to extend expiring tax cuts would raise the deficit by $2.8 trillion. His fate as DOGE head is tied to the rate of the nation’s interest payments now.

Yields on government debt typically move up and down with investors’ expectations of growth and inflation. Social and political issues play a role in driving rates, too. They are helping to drive rates higher than might otherwise be expected.

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have declined from 4.8% in January to near 4.2% largely because expectations for growth are falling. But they are still higher than they have been since the 2008 financial crisis.

“If you want to explain where Treasury yields are now, and you take the core macroeconomic factors at their face, there’s still a pretty big gap between what those factors would predict and where we are now,” Rosenberg says.

Bond veterans have noticed an unusual pattern in yields. “If you look at moves in the 10-year Treasury, now we have more 10-basis-point moves than we’ve seen since right around the global financial crisis,” says Gregory Peters, co-chief Investment officer at PGIM Fixed Income. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percent.

The dramatic rate shifts suggest that investors and central bankers are dealing with “policy-driven schizophrenia,” he says.

Gold keeps rising in price, a trend Rosenberg says is likely to continue along as the policy mess continues. The metal hit a record high Friday.

The hit from tariffs over recent weeks suggests that equity investors are nursing a political hangover, too. The S&P 500 is down 9% from its record closing level.

Investors aren’t all rushing to change their trading strategies. “From a bond guy’s perspective, an emerging market is one where when the economy slows, the government’s rates go up, and vice versa. I think we’re still a developed market,” says Campe Goodman, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Wellington.

The worry about this talk of emerging-market status is that it is hard to rebuild trust once it disappears. Global investors are still eager to hold oceans of U.S. government debt for relatively low rates. Why make them think twice about it?

Source: Trump’s Tariffs Are Turning the U.S. Into an Emerging Market - Barron's

Economists agree that a universal tariff plan from Trump would cost households thousands. But it could make things simpler for Trump.

A staple of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign trail rhetoric returned this week with a version of 20% "blanket" tariffs now apparently being considered as the president struggles to fill in the details of his “Liberation Day” promises.

The potential move, applying to all or most goods imported to the United States, would represent a dramatic pivot of sorts for the president amid implementation worries and political complications that have dogged the White House’s long-promised plan for more specific country-by-country duties.

But it would also mark a return to an approach to trade that Trump has long championed despite varied warnings from economists that it could have the deepest of consequences for the US economy.

The Yale Budget Lab Tuesday tabulated that a move toward true blanket tariffs would stoke inflation by more than 2% and — assuming no countermeasures from the Federal Reserve — create a loss of buying power of $3,400-$4,200 per household.

The researchers added that 20% duties, if added on top of existing tariffs, would make the average effective US tariff rate the highest since 1872 at 32.8%.

A previous estimate from the Tax Foundation has also put the cost in the thousands and found that 20% blanket duties would represent an average tax increase on US households of $2,045.

Even studies from Trump-friendly groups — such as one issued during the 2024 campaign by a group called the Coalition for a Prosperous America — acknowledge that tariffs would raise consumer prices.

Thus far, there are signs from media reports that 20% duties are being considered by the Trump team, including a report Tuesday from the Washington Post that detailed the latest machinations Thus far, there are signs from media reports that 20% duties are being considered by the Trump team, including a report Tuesday from the Washington Post that detailed the latest machinations.

Some in the administration are openly pushing for aggressive revenue goals where the math would likely require some flavor of universal duties.

On Sunday, senior White House trade and manufacturing counselor Peter Navarro said the Trump 2.0 tariffs could add around $700 billion a year annually to US coffers — combining $100 billion from recently announced 25% auto tariffs to $600 billion more from other duties.

Such an ambitious top-line number can't be achieved without a wide array of duties. 20% blanket tariffs, one of the most aggressive options to raise revenue yet, are estimated to raise only about half the amount floated by Navarro, assuming that other countries retaliate.

'You’re going to see'

A 20% blanket tariff rate would represent a dramatic turn for Trump back to outsized campaign trail promises of his stewardship of the US economy at a delicate time for markets.

It could also be seen as a recognition of sorts that his oft-repeated promises of actions where "what they do to us, we do to them" is more challenging in the face of already overtaxed ports and also political constituencies that have spent recent months clamoring for exceptions.

If nothing else, a blanket tariff would be simpler to implement and is likely not to add significantly to what is known as the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States — an already overstuffed 99-chapter-long guide that duty collectors and importers rely on at ports.

A move toward universal tariffs — if Trump follows through — could also lessen some political pressure with less opportunity for exceptions.

Garrett Watson, the director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, previously noted to Yahoo Finance that the move toward reciprocal country-by-country tariffs was one that presented political pitfalls that could be weighing on Trump’s team today.

He said selective tariff considerations present "the risk of creating a political bonanza ... that makes the situation complicated and uncertain and can create political winners and losers."

Trump has declined to offer much in the way of specificity. When asked Wednesday about applying universal versus individual tariffs, he responded, “You’re going to see in two days,” while declining to offer specifics.

The president nonetheless continued to up the stakes. In addition to his oft-repeated use of the moniker “Liberation Day” for this Wednesday, he said he is now considering the implementation of tariffs that he believes represents a "rebirth of the country."

It's a topic that Democrats are also likely to hammer the president on, especially if this week's rollout goes poorly and already shaky markets continue to sell off.

“Perhaps if they are blanket 20% across-the-board tariffs that are imposed tomorrow, markets may have some certainty going forward,” former Biden administration official Alex Jacquez said Tuesday morning.

But then he quickly added, "It's hard to see that they'll like those either."

Source: Yahoo Finance

In the heart of Myanmar, a high-rise crumbled like a house of cards. Built with confidence, designed with resilience - yet when the event happened, it stood no chance.

The label "earthquake-proof" is a hypothesis, not a fact, and its truth emerges only in the crucible of reality - when the ground convulses beneath it.

So it is with stock markets and their forward P/E ratios. Analysts and AUM-gatherers assume a forward P/E and then tout it as a bargain, a narrative to calm investors - foolishly assuming the future. Much like architects touting reinforced steel.

But projecting earnings 2-3 years out is a specious guess dressed as certainty.

Unexpected shocks can shatter those forecasts, just as the quake shattered the high-rise.

We cling to these numbers for comfort, sidestepping the hard truth that a fwd P/E’s worth, like a building’s resilience, can only be judged when the future arrives - tested not by our assumptions and hopes, but by what endures.

The burden of true analysis is heavy, but the weight of self-deception is far greater.