Everyday I see someone asking here if they should buy the dip and overwhelmingly the answers are to keep DCA regardless of market, or that they’re lucky to get a discount right now. Asking genuinely, is no one here concerned about the possibility of this ruining the market for many years, especially since the relationships we have around the world have now at the least been damaged for some time? This situation doesn’t seem so easy to come back from
I am concerned, from the perspective that the shenanigans may cause a strong recession, which could lead to literally millions losing their jobs and homes.
I am not concerned that the value of the US stock market has reached some sort of permanent plateau. I am prepared for it to take several years to recover prices and will continue purchasing $20k+ a year as I have been for several years now.
The reason you should continue to buy, assuming that you don't need the cash for a minimum of five years, is that you can use times like this accumulate shares. Then, during the next boom, which will happen at some unknown point in the future, all past sins will be forgiven.
Ok, one thing that really! matters is one's age. Me? I am old. What does that mean for me? I already had been in risk reduction. Turning to more cash last couple years with most of my income, like HYS and CDs. And of course, some actual cash. Currently, my at risk portfolio is about 35%. Still getting employer match for 401, so I think of that as growth, even with only half of that fund at risk. I rarely pick a single stock, and when I do it's something that I am at least interested inn (dabble with a few shares at most). Almost everything is ETFs. And again, being old, I do like a dividend ETF, like a JEPI or SCHD, I also like holding some PMs, maybe 5-10%. (not in paper, physical). anyway, my thougfhts have always been, can I lose half of what is at risk and be ok? But, it's only a loss if I sell when it's down, right?
Apologies for the length here, but it's just too easy and makes no sense to just blurt out buy or sell with no reasoning.
That’s why I’ve recently started converting my pre-tax deferred 457 to my Roth 457 each year. I’m 59 now. At 75 my RMDs (required minimum distributions) from my 457 will kick in. The RMDs will be considerable ($250K a year and will gradually increase to about $400K a year). That will put me into the 30+ % tax brackets. I’d rather pay the tax now at 22-24% now each year up to the age of 75, and whittle my taxable balance down now, instead of paying such high tax on the high 457 balance from ages 75 to 95. I’m in excellent physical health.
I retired last summer with just 25% in equities; I trimmed that to 18% in January, mostly SCHD, VXUS, and OAKMX. Until this week international stocks were doing OK, but I'm sleeping pretty well at night anyway. I have a significant sum in SCHO which I consider my "dry powder" to deploy in equities if we get a significant capitulation in stocks. No blood in the streets, yet. I don't plan to return to work, ever, so I am aggressively managing my Sequence Of Returns Risk.
I hear that. I had retired almost 3 years ago, had already signed up for SS (hit full ret age). Had given 3 months notice, as what I do is specialized. In the last week before going out the door they gave me a p/t proposal and I said yes. Fully no-commute, and work my own hours. But, even with that, I am still also trimming back over time on risk. Now, if they would remove SS $ from being taxed... again.
SS benefits being taxed might be of less concern than you think. I'm getting $2278 / month in SS retirement, and I'm taking $800 / month in traditional IRA distributions. My Federal tax will be zero. My "combined income" - 1/2 of SS plus 100% of everything else - is less than the single threshold of $25K, so none of my SS is taxable. The IRA withdrawls are taxable, but they are less than the standard deduction.
My state doesn't tax SS at all so my state income tax will be calculated on my IRA withdrawls minus $2K in deductions: about $250 / year.
I'm still currently employed p/t, and in the 85% of SS taxed bracket. But, I'll take flow of cash weekly in this environment over trying to keep the SS benefit maxed.
That’s actually a great way to put it. Shares are cheaper. You can accumulate more. And when these shares eventually raise in value again then you’re killing it.
Its not about being optimistic or pessimistic, it's about being prepared for all contingencies.
If you're financially secure, and saving for the longterm, you should continue investing a portion of your income every month regardless of short term market movements. You should not panic sell, but neither should you empty your checking account, or otherwise overleverage yourself, just to "buy the dip" when there's reasonable fears of a long-term recession.
well I warned guys buying the nvda "dip" at 110, that it will go down until 80...now I am even not sure if that's the bottom..can imagine it going down all way to 60..but I think this is just logic, not pessimism.. the "trade wars" are just another level of lunacy that will keep the markets down for a long time
Just a guess here. I dont think Trump will keep these tariffs on for very long. His ego is too big to have his presidency known for a global trade war that sparked a recession.
He's probably gonna pull out after some countries concede to him, then claim victory. Like what he did with Canada and Mexico earlier this year.
Yeah, i though about that too. Will he really keep those tarrifs for long ? He's making a mess and he will be remembered for that. Is he gonna put a UNO reverse card to that ?
Nike stocks did bounce back a bit after talks with Vietnam
Within hours, however, the president was indicating that he might be prepared to change course. “Just had a very productive call with To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, who told me that Vietnam wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the U.S.,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding that he looked forward to a meeting “in the near future”.
They might not trust us but the US has the biggest market for people of other countries to sell goods to, they know that when Trump and his team leave office things will most likely go back to normal, but who knows.
Are you comparing this subreddit's (98 people online btw) overall opinion to the general investor throughout the globe? Seriously. Why do you think the VIX spiked?
The “entirety of Reddit” is a massive fucking reach…I’ve ready way more of people saying they will keep buying rather then sell low…even if everyone on Reddit was selling, who fucking cares. If anyone follows investing advice on social media, then that’s on them and is bout the dumbest decision one could make about their future. I come here to learn some things, NOT for financial advice.
Thats wrong, people WERE greedy before, right now is the after effect of it, its why buffet went fearful and sold everything and he was right now markets are tanking. He’ll be greedy when peak fear occurs.
I bet there are a lot of people currently saying "buy the dip" who will get laid off when the impact of tariffs start showing up in earnings reports, and end up selling close to the bottom just to be able to pay for rent and groceries.
Yes, a solid emergency fund should be everyone's top priority, please don't make yourself financially vulnerable because of FOMO over stocks "on sale".
You are absolutely right. Most people that been through 2008 are not really on reddit posting trades or discussing stocks. They are firmly at a job and have families.
Yep been through a few, I’m lucky enough to hold a job that’s not effected through recession. Invested through All time highs down to a recession, up to all time highs again. That’s not what I’m seeing im seeing a man that’s aggressively negotiating
Bingo. I just don’t get it - Trump literally ran his campaign talking about these tariffs, gave everyone nearly a month notice for “liberation day”, and yet you still have people here who are bleeding out their retirement funds treating this market like business as usual.
What else did he say about the stock market on Friday ?
You left out “Opportunity to get Rich” So u believe him on the negative but not the positive? I just believe this man is going to pull through. And no I’m not a Trump fan. I’m conservative and feel he could’ve done things differently. But hey, it’s bringing countries to the table
What else did he say about the stock market on Friday ? You left out “Opportunity to get Rich” So u believe him on the negative but not the positive?
It’s not a matter of belief, it’s economics 101.
Now I understand that for you it might be about belief. It is very difficult to deal with the cognitive dissonance that is the collapse of your own belief system. I wish you the best in sorting that out for yourself and offer you help if you need it.
Yeah, a lot of us are very worried, but what is the alternative? Sit on cash for a decade? Then how will we retire in a reasonable time frame? I'm putting more into international than I used to, but no one has really presented any clear alternatives to the S&P 500 that we can rely on to give us the kind of results we saw in the last 30 years in the next 30 years. I don't see China or the EU averaging 10% a year for the long term. Do you have any advice? The only thing I've really seen on here are people who sold already back in February that plan to repurchase all the same US stocks at some point this year, but I've already missed the boat on that one and don't feel confident in my market timing skills, so here we are, gonna just hold and continue to DCA.
I'm in the same boat re: not trying to time the market. Honestly, staying invested and continuing to DCA is probably one of the best things you can do. I shaved off some VOO when it was in the $550 range, put it into international and value, and am building some defensive stuff like short-term bonds or VTIP just in case things get bumpier.
Will international beat the S&P? Who knows. But with U.S. valuations this stretched and the global power structure shifting, it makes sense to hedge a little. Doesn’t mean abandoning the U.S., just means not putting most of your eggs in one basket.
If you dumped all your money into the market in September 1929, yeah, you were underwater for 25 years. But if you DCA’d steadily through the downturn you actually came out way ahead by the 1940s and 1950s. Because prices got crushed, when the market finally recovered your average cost was so low that your portfolio had huge upside.
We may not get 10% per year anymore, but staying balanced, adaptable, and consistent probably gets us a lot closer to retiring than trying to predict the perfect moment to sell or buy back in.
Idk, I'm not an expert, just a schmuck who's doing my best. If anyone with more knowledge has anything to add or contradict please chime in.
What are your preferred alternatives? My point is we don't know if the stocks will be flat or not. Staying in the market means there is at least a chance of staying on track to retire. Pulling it out for a long time is a guarantee I will not be.
So you’re certain that stock prices won’t rise over the next 10 years?
This kind of fear driven narrative shows up in every market correction or crash. It’s what makes it emotionally difficult to buy the dip. Why? Because there’s always some argument that this time is different and we might never recover.
Let’s address the ‘lost decade’ myth directly. Yes, if you invested $10,000 at the exact peak of the dot com bubble in 2000 and sold in 2010, your returns would’ve been disappointing. But that scenario assumes
No additional investing during the downturns. No reinvestment of dividends. And that you cashed out after two of the worst crashes in modern history. The dot com bust and the global financial crisis. Who does that lol
That’s not a realistic long term investing strategy.
What if, instead, you had consistently invested during that period including during the market bottoms and reinvested dividends? The outcome changes dramatically. In fact, the power of dollar cost averaging and compounding through dividend reinvestment significantly improves long term returns, even through difficult decades. If you remain consistent the lost decade would’ve been a great time to invest. Go ahead look at those prices , yeah wouldn’t you love those prices right now right?
Also, consider that the average annual return of the S&P 500, including dividends, has been about 10% since the 1950s. Long-term investing works, but only if you stay disciplined and keep perspective.
So no, I’m not worried about the next 10 years being a repeat of 2000–2010. And I’m willing to bet we won’t see two once in a generation crashes back to back again like that.And if we do I’ll be there taking advantage of it.
History doesn’t repeat perfectly, and cherry picking the worst case scenario isn’t how sound investing decisions are made.
This history along with the other current economic indicators tilt probability towards a short bear market and one of the green outcomes.
Prospero had a recent blog article "Don't Trim the Hedges". They use a 6% + hedge (one of the short ETF's) along with their S&P500 investment to control risk. One fund manager ($6 billion) just sold 50% of equities and some bonds (as they correlate to equities) and the reason for just 50% as opposed to 100% is because they believe there is a higher probability of a short bear. All of these are risk management approaches and your view of that depends on your situation.
For sure sound advice is DCA. If you want to learn more technical investing knowledge to mitigate your emotions, look to "someone" like Prospero and there are numerous others. Reddit in general isn't a non-emotional realm. Technical knowledge is a good way to help yourself. Don't fear mistakes. Learn from them. Seems like you have time on your side.
Even in '07,'08 bear (~57% drop), if you did nothing, the s&p500 recovered in 5.5 yrs. If you DCA'd or had dividends, etc your recovery time could have been (even much) shorter.
There’s a lot of noise right now tariffs, government dysfunction, geopolitical friction, global realignment. It feels overwhelming. But that’s exactly when emotional narratives start sounding more convincing than historical perspective.
The idea that U.S. markets are broken forever and we’re heading into a generational depression? That’s not new. We’ve heard it before, during the stagflation and oil shocks of the 1970s, the dot com collapse, 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, and again during the COVID crash.
And yet… the S&P 500 recovered each time. Long term investors who stayed the course , especially those reinvesting dividends, were rewarded.
Yes, you’ve listed a lot of potential risks and they’re worth watching. But that’s all they are right now, POTENTIAL .
The market is doing what it always does pricing in uncertainty and adapting to change. That’s not the end of investing that is investing.
If you wait for perfect clarity, you’ll always be late. Historically, the market’s best returns often happen when fear is highest.
Personally, I didn’t sell in 2018, 2020, or 2022 and those times felt brutal. It’s like throwing money into a fire. But I kept investing. When you do that?, this kind of drop sucks but I’m up so big, there’s no hesitation buying every week ,it really doesn’t bother me.
I’d rather ride through the storm than miss the sunrise trying to time it. That’s how real long-term wealth is built.
I doubt we're at the bottom, but it should level off soon. This correction has been extremely violent. It likely won't be a long-lived one. Investors sitting on cash will want to jump in and take advantage of the sale, thus kicking off the recovery, but the oarnge buffoon is a new wrinkle. Folks might be hesitant to get back in since no one has any idea what he might do next.
I agree with your analysis. I think the big single day drops are gonna taper into a bear market until mid 26. Still a ways to go til bottom but it'll take longer to get there.
Yeah, eventually, greed and fomo will become too hard to resist and buyers will jump in. It will just take a few to get in, and the avalanche will start. Kind of of like the pool at a party.
Some people invest like robotic automatons which takes the emotions and the intellectual judgement out of investing. Something to be said for that. Those are the people who say they would lump sum and DCA no matter what.
Others choose to react to circumstances using emotions and judgement. Both have risks.
There are also people who rationally analyze the business prospects for earnings growth and calculate what they would be willing to pay for those forward earnings, taking risks into account.
There is nothing about the ETF investment wrapper that says you should treat it like a day at the horse races. I understand the advantage index investing, but you should still know the P/E of the index you are investing in. And you should pay attention when the foundation of the index has changed.
Also, ETFs are more than that. Even Vanguard has a wide selection of ETFs that have different investment thesis's driving them.
I’m a very average regular guy. Aside from looking at the track record, do some backtesting to compare for example QQQ to SCHG to IWY, I do look at the top 10 holdings, but that’s it. I’m so average, I wouldn’t even know what more I could or should do.
hey, there is nothing wrong with at least taking a glance. I see guys frantically wondering shoulkd I sell or buy, regurgitating the latest headlines, and not knowing what they have. And there is that difference between investing and speculating for a lot of us. But then again, anything past my early years' cars, bars, and guitars plan is better.
That is why you need to use your brain when you invest.
If the fundamentals are the same, and the thing is cheaper, of course buy it if you would have been happy to buy it when it was more expensive.
However right now, the fundamentals are not the same... The entire global financial and trade system over the last 80 years is gone.
So buying the dip for the sake of buying the dip is stupid and insane.
Do your research... and if it makes sense, make strategic buying of the dips in an index or certain companies... and then once the new fundamental of the market is understood, then you buy.
If the fundamentals are the same, and the thing is cheaper, of course buy it if you would have been happy to buy it when it was more expensive.
However right now, the fundamentals are not the same... The entire global financial and trade system over the last 80 years is gone.
So simply and eloquently put, I had to quote it.
The only thing that I would add, is that with the government in Washington DC leading a USA retreat from global economic leadership, opportunities for countries, markets, and currencies around the world abound. It will take some time to see who the leaders of global prosperity (excluding US) will be, so be attentive and cautious through the turbulence.
other than Canada, when I did deep digging and reviewed import/export tariffs country by country, product by product, line by line (over 5k items listed), we had many crap deals.It's surprising how many products are over 50% going into the EU countries. The news reports are trash.
Post a link to your spreadsheet data showing this.
Remember, we are currently under Trumps Canada Mexico trade agreement and he says we're getting ripped off... By his deal.
He likes to gloat about how tough he was on China. He was the softest president on China. He had the largest trade deficit with them than any president, ever. Biden reduced this by $135 billion over his term. (census.gov) Biden's lowest year, $279B. Biden's 2nd lowest, $295B. Trump's lowest year, $308B. Weak
That data is online. Like I said, I don't see it with Canada, though. Yeah, I am not backing any of the DC geniuses. The numbers are all over the place, highly dependent on the product. For instance, some poultry might be 35%, while poultry that falls under another definition is 65%. Same with US grains, there are different tariffs on the various products. Within the EU (and I agree!), they tariff the snot out of anything with corn syrup. Anyway, I had to do some work reviewing what it was in 2022, none of this stuff is new.You will know when you are looking at the actual data as there are 1000s of line items. When I see a report that assigns a specific number to a country, that makes no sense. Something like this will give an idea of the goods. Not all are obviously traded with each country. https://www.intracen.org/resources/data-and-analysis/trade-statistics
It is a pain right now, as some of what we import (industrial sector) is from China, and that has really jumped
Wow, just checked it out. That is a ton of data and hard to navigate. I'm definitely out of shape as far as a statistician goes...
Thank you for the link.
Yeah the EU, Canada, and NZ have much healthier food standards than the US, probably Australia too(they don't import US beef because they've never had mad cow disease). I have Crohn's and it's night and day how much better these food systems are to ours.
I just want to say that many of the countries I see people talking about have the populations somewhere between the size of LA and California. I don't know what exactly they are going to be producing over what they currently do. Gotta do some digging into what's actually going on around the globe. headline news is worse than ever, and the actual content of most is trash.
The EU and China both have significant markets. The Prime Minister of Canada (who has extensive banking experience) has already suggest that Canada fill the leadership shoes.
Ok, for me, in my evauluating, the EU is not a country, each is handled differently. And Canada is going to do what exactly? they can only produce so much with a limited workforce. I guess I'm just not going to allow headline news to run my life. And, I am not saying that many points proposed might not have validity. Sometimes, things just have to happen.
I’d be upset if I was retiring this year or needing to liquidate. Otherwise all I care about how much I can buy, and I can buy a lot more today than I could two days ago. And Im excited that I might be able to buy more next week than I can today
One example: China, S. Korea and Japan are in tri-lateral talks to respond to this and promote better trade agreements between the three countries, historical enemies, united by this.
The negative effects of this intentional kneecapping of the US Stock market, the greatest wealth engine ever created, will be far reaching and massive.
The US is no longer a trusted ally. Economic or military. We're seen as unreliable by peer nations.
The US dollar is the global reserve currency - replacing it will have generational negative impact on this country's economy and the value of the dollar.
Yes it's concerning, none of this is normal, it's all avoidable, the stated end-goals (returning manufacturing to the US) are years long efforts and will not produce jobs or high wages (efficiency from factory automation has outpaced labor and wage growth for years).
The market is just the beginning. We're in for a long ride.
Not in the least. In order for tariffs to do what the President wants will require a decade of new factories and thousands of people who are willing to work in those factories making things. That won't happen and the political cyle won't allow this to happen. I'm already buying as much as I can each month. If I had any extra cash now, I'd buy even more. With this many people being fearful, now is the time I get to be greedy.
Yup, I am concerned. I don’t follow the blind advice of DCA and never sell. I rebalanced and changed my investing plans because Trump uncertainty was too high. I have some other reasons, but I got out of a large portion of my exposure after inauguration.
I am still DCAing with my current 401k contributions, but that’s a small amount of new money compared to my overall portfolio.
I am sitting on the sidelines for the next 3-6 months or until Trump changes his tune. I fully expect that Trump could waffle, get some sort of concessions, and reverse on some tariffs with some countries which would cause the bleeding to stop and possibly a market reversal. If however he digs in, the economic data for Q2 is going to be brutal, and I expect the market to fall more.
I am considering buying longer term puts in the 9 month range, but I want to see the market rebound some and how Trump responds to the pressure you know he will be getting from his political allies to reverse course. Trump is a real wildcard in this whole situation.
The issue now is the US government is currently trying to destroy the global financial system.
The last comparable event was Smoot Hawley in 1930. It took 30 years to get back to its inflation adjusted value from before the fall.
So yes, there is a good chance for recovery, but it could entail nearly half a lifetime of economic depression, and that was with post WWII allowing the US to become the economic powerhouse it is today due to its industrial experience, not having been bombed out, and poaching talented scientists after the war.
The trouble is today if other countries pick up the US's economic slack (i.e. the rest of the world is forming free trade agreements without the US right now, and any prudent foreign company will be looking at ways to fill holes left by the US) and poach our scientists (which they are currently doing), this will either significantly add to the recovery time, or totally prevent full recovery.
Honestly, all the talk about buying the dip on here makes me feel even more confident in my call to sell at all time high in Feb and stop investing altogether. Especially when the responses to my points on here are “well history” or “you’re going to miss out.” Have yet to hear a good reason to think these are actually discounts or why hoarding cash right now isn’t a better choice.
I’ve found through the course of my life that I’m pretty immune to FOMO. Loss aversion also isn’t that effective against me; otherwise, I wouldn’t take the risks that I take.
My driving motivation was simple: I don’t want my money held hostage on the stock market. Maybe it’ll recover maybe it won’t. But there’s a mad man flying the plane, and I would much rather have locked in gains and cash in hand and be more agile.
Sounds like this time around for good reason you were loss averse. ’m subject to both FOMO and Loss aversion. It Explains why I sold only 90% of my portfolio starting in February.
For me it’s all about not being held hostage to MAAA: Market Angst. Anxiety. Apprehension.
This is eggzactly why when I retired years ago I promised myself not to rely on the market for wealth accumulation or income in retirement. Stocks were 7% of my assets, now after wholesale selling last month it’s 1%.
The covid dip wasn’t caused by a a fundamental change to how our economy operates; in fact, it dipped because it was disrupting how our economy operated. Covid was unexpected and an external problem that had economic ramifications. We came back because the guts of our economy is strong.
Right now, the guts of our economy is being ripped apart by a monkey who fancies himself a surgeon. So not at all analogous and a mistake to think the same.
Nah. The early COVID times were a historic buying opportunity, and we knew it at the time.
It's different this time, though. The markets aren't reacting to a normal disaster. We don't really have history that covers this except maybe the Great Depression, through that was a case of maladministration rather than intentional sabotage.
This night be another historic buying opportunity ... but it's not as clear as it was in COVID. And things are about to get really unpredictable, and it night be more about survival than wealth building.
For now I'm not planning to sell, but I am focusing on saving over investing.
If I were retiring in the next 4-5 years, I’d be concerned. But I’m not and the pendulum always swings back. The damage is already extensive and will get worse, but once cleanup and recovery start, it can move fast. I don’t plan to be on the sidelines for any of it.
I'm not investing anything I need to access in the next few years. Anything I have that may need to be in cash is just in money market. If the market tanks this badly for long enough that it matters to me, either I'm already doomed or the whole world is doomed.
This is not to say that this is not a disaster for many - particularly those in retirement years who have to liquidate at least some. But for me, I was just coming into my own during the last big recession and it was terrible for a while and then it was better again. Had I invested then, I'd have a lot more money now.
Ruining the market for many years just means you have years to accumulate at lower prices. Like the lost decade in the US then followed by the past 15 or so years of unprecedented performance. So unless you plan on retiring soon, this is great. Even if its down for many years to come.
I agree with the “buy the dip” philosophy. But a few caveats
make sure you have an emergency fund
if you buy the dip, make sure it’s money you don’t need for 3-5 or even 20 years
buy etfs or stocks in companies you believe will still be around in 20 years time (for me that’s aapl, Amazon, goog, msft, Costco)
Yeah, I’m scared of what’s happening right now and what could happen. I’m also wary of all out war happening, and if so, money is probably useless at that point anyway
Invest only if you have capital you don’t need anytime soon
The thing about the tariffs and trade war is that they can be undone and trade can be restored with negotiations and concessions from BOTH sides. Now the tricky part is the regaining of confidence with the US from our trade partners that I’m not sure can be regained so easily with him still as president. We might not see that until after he is gone but SOME balance can be brought back in the interim. It’s concerning over all but I don’t think this is going to cause us to have another lost decade or cause lasting PERMANENT damage to our economy. The trade with US is still a profitable one and they WANT to trade with us. Right now we’re just dealing with an immature school yard bully who is having a temper tantrum. But he won’t be here forever and this will be just another blip on the radar in the long term.
Nope. No concerning at all when you know it was coming and predicted it right. I held out from buying at the top, held out even more a month or so ago, holding out now. Knew everything will go cheaper. I would only be concern if you dumped everything at the top, then yeah you’re screwed for a while lol.
It actually goes down much faster than up. Just like how you had an order to buy VOO at $470’a share and u said it was the cheapest all week and it was a deal. And what did I say? I said nope trust me it’s going to go lower it’s not the cheapest. Then 3-4 hours later when I said that it dropped to $463 a share. Like I said you’re too jumpy to hop on the dip. It’s just the beginning. Let these tariffs unravel more and do its damage. China struck back and it dropped the market more today. Let more chaos happen and get it cheaper. Stop rushing , now your $470 a share is already in the red. I told you so.
Bros on Reddit all day I guarantee I have more in a money market than you have in your entire portfolio and you’re going to follow me on every post like a goober. Guess what buddy continue to follow me in every comment section as I DCA for the rest of my life till I retire. Have you ever heard of DCA and would you like to argue with 30 years of studies?
When the DCA-heads on this sub throw in the towel, then you will know buying opportunities are soon coming. I am waiting for the sentiment capitulation.
I'm retiring this year and still not too concerned. I've been investing for 40 years, though, so there is that.
Do I have less than 3 months ago? Yup. Compared to 20 years ago, significantly more so that I'm still retiring when I planned on it.
the whole "our allies now hate us" is media baloney. Besides, the US has been on the short end of many agreements, Politicians arounf the world are gonna politic
I only invest money I have zero fear of losing. With that said, I will continue to buy as I have 20 years before retirement. But I own my home and have a 1 year emergency fund. If I couldn't say those things, I would probably be more conservative.
1) I've learned that I can't predict market tops or bottoms. Thus, I can't properly time when to take my money out and put it back in. Going in and out of the market only (on average) reduces my returns, incurs transactions costs and taxes, and keeps much of the volatility, and
2) I've got ten years till retirement.
So the optimal thing to do is just keep it in the market, and keep buying more stocks with every paycheck. I forecast, with very high probability, that ten years from now I will be glad i did that.
I have been DCAing for decades. I lost in six figures in 2 days. I sold all my stock mutual funds today. The President is a dumb SOB. Not willing to risk losing more.
It would if I was 60 years. Im below 30. I don‘t change my strategy. Keep buying. Remember the finance crisis? People who sold were loosing alot. People with diamond hands and kept buying got rich. I keep quiet some gold around and ofcourse safety stash in CHF so I will not get forced to sell my ETF/Stocks
Yes, it's concerning, and has been since the JOKE of a cabinet was the "SELL NOW" signal.
I don't market time, but I do realize when a flock of black swans is about to land. Been saying the same since January when I started selling. All I have left is my most conservative ETFs.
Now is the time to set limit buys for all those companies and funds that were priced too high. It will take the emotion out of re-entering a declining market. Be prepared to be in the red after buys for a while though.
We’ve never had a president working with and for the interests of a hostile foreign power before. This is a self-inflicted wound.. it’s the goal. His job was to destroy America’s place in the world and he’s doing a fantastic job.
Yes, I’m concerned. But there’s nothing I can do about it. It will absolutely suck if we end up in Great Depression 2.0. The only thing I can do is keep investing. The market will recover eventually, and I’ll be glad I kept buying while things were cheap.
Granted, I’m still 20 years from retirement. I’d be singing a different tune if i was 5, or even 10 years away.
As someone who isn't looking at retirement for at least another 30 or so years and feels/knows they are way way behind where they should be at this point in life, I'm excited. I just started a couple of years ago and have been kicking myself because of hindsight. This is an opportunity for me to make up a little bit of lost time because of not doing what I should have been doing.
I think ppl must have a 2 year plus emergency fund sleeping well at night and other concerns. I’ve been adding a significant amount in the past 4 weeks. It’s certainly losing a lot but I don’t know the bottom and I’m actually not looking for the bottom. I’ve been wanting to add 200k plus into my portfolio for a long time and the current situation and fear finally encouraged me to start DCaing. I’ve added 130k so far and still buying as it’s going down. So we’ll see what happens in 5 plus years I guess. If we hit a recession, I’ll add even more. This is my only ticket out of the rat race. Either I’ll make it or screw it. But according to many great investors, this is the right approach. I’m trying to take the emotional stuff out of it quite frankly.
There are real concerns. We are essentially isolating ourselves. The rest of the world has been rapidly developing the last 20 years. They're all going to create stronger trade relationships with each other now.
And this whole nonsense about manufacturing jobs coming back. He's doing this now at the inflection point of ai and advanced robotics hitting significant capabilities to replace or seriously augment human beings. Magnifying their productivity and allowing reduction of head counts. Manufacturing now? Requires a fraction of what it wants did. Especially in a brand new factory that will be created with all the cutting edge technology available.
I believe we should always have a dca strategy but not a 1 time buy strategy because low prices can get even lower.
I think for me, i prefer a long term stagnant market than a 4 month rebound market.
I have a reoccurring investment strategy so the longer our market is down, the better it is for me.
2000 tops did not breakeven until 2007, and new highs didn’t come until 2012, 12 years of stagnation. People who had 401k accumulation during these 12 years have now made 700% on that money.
I’ve been an investor for over 40 years. I’ve been thru worse than this (in 2008 banks and other financial institutions actually failed) so no I’m really not concerned. I retired in 2014 at 55. I’m going to do the same thing I did during the Covid collapse…nothing. TBH I really don’t watch or concern myself with the daily/weekly/monthly market gyrations. I make sure my asset allocation is correct and chill. I always make sure I have living expenses for 1.5 to 2 years in cash equivalents anyway.
“Many years” isn’t forever. This is my chance to retire sooner. Buy cheap. Think of the last time the stock market tanked and “never” recovered. If you’re fairly young, this is an opportunity
MAAA. Market Angst. Anxiety. Apprehension.
This is eggzactly why when I retired years ago I promised myself not to rely on the market for wealth accumulation or income in retirement. Stocks were 7% of my assets, now after wholesale selling last month it’s 1%.
Dude why would u not invest when the market is low and stagnating? THATS THE TIME TO LOAD UP. If you accumulate at the bottom while the stock market trades side ways for years then when the market finally recovers and does another covid bull run YOUR PROFITS WILL EXPLODE!!!!
Yes if u look at index funds like the snp500 or nasdaq there are years of stagnation or no growth. We could be entering that time. Having an etf that does dividends helps during lack of growth periods
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u/alchemist615 2d ago
I am concerned, from the perspective that the shenanigans may cause a strong recession, which could lead to literally millions losing their jobs and homes.
I am not concerned that the value of the US stock market has reached some sort of permanent plateau. I am prepared for it to take several years to recover prices and will continue purchasing $20k+ a year as I have been for several years now.
The reason you should continue to buy, assuming that you don't need the cash for a minimum of five years, is that you can use times like this accumulate shares. Then, during the next boom, which will happen at some unknown point in the future, all past sins will be forgiven.