r/Futurology • u/Due-Firefighter3206 • 1h ago
Discussion Tariffs, Trade, and Technology - Why Jobs Won't Be Coming Back To The U.S.
This idea has been floating in my head lately and I'm curious what others here think.
We're seeing the U.S. walk away from long-standing trade relationships, especially with countries like China. Tariffs, re-shoring, and isolationist rhetoric - all of it feels like a big shift away from the globalized world we've depended on for decades.
What if there's a deeper reason?
What if we're burning those trade relationships because we simply won't need them anymore?
Between automation, robotics, and now Generative AI, we're rapidly developing the ability to do most of the work we used to outsource - and even the work we do domestically - without human labor.
Think about it:
- Automatic factories running 24/7
- AI replacing customer service, legal review, writing and design
- Domestic production that doesn't rely on wages, labor rights, or foreign supply chains
If that future becomes reality, why maintain expensive trade relationships when we can just automate everything at home?
I see two almost guaranteed outcomes:
Production will boom - massive output, low cost, high efficiency
Unemployment will boom - jobs (blue and white collar) disappear fast
Then what?
A few possible outcomes after that could be:
- Extreme wealth concentration - The companies that automate first will dominate. Capital will replace labor as the driver of value. The middle class shrinks as the lower class gets bigger.
- Government redistribution (UBI, wealth taxes) - Maybe we see UBI to keep society functioning but will it be enough, or even happen at all?
- A new two-class system - A small elite who own the machines and AI and everyone else who is non-essential. Could lead to mass unrest, political upheaval, or worse.
- De-globalization - No more need for cheap foreign labor > less global trade > more deopolitical tensions. Especially as developing economies suffer (this is because in order for developing economies to grow they need to make stuff and have people to sell it to).
- A new purpose for humans - Maybe we finally shift to creative, educational, and community-centered lives. This would requite a MASSIVE cultural transformation that wouldn't be an easy shift.
- Environmental risk - Automated production could massively accelerate resource extraction and emissions unless regulation keeps up.
This whole situation reminds me of the industrial revolution, but on steroids. Back then we had decades to adapt. This time It's happening in years. We've already had billionaires and world leaders come out and say thing like "many of the jobs today will be done by robots and AI in 10 years - like teachers and some medical jobs" -Bill Gates (paraphrasing).
What do you think? Are we heading toward an age where human labor is obsolete, and if so, what does that do to society, the economy, and the global order? Is this a dystopia, a utopia, or something in between?
Let me know,
Thanks.