Guys, be careful when something looks too obvious in the market. There’s a ton of people loading up on puts this week, betting on a crash, but that could be a setup for manipulation. How does it work? Easy: the big players (banks, funds, etc.) know where the crowd’s pain points are like a bunch of puts waiting for a drop. So, they might push a massive gap up, pump the price for a few days, burn those puts (making them worthless), and then crash it hard afterward. It’s not a conspiracy, it’s just the game: they move the price to where their wallets win. Stay sharp, ‘cause when everyone’s betting on the same side, the market loves flipping the table.

Quote: Tariffs provide revenue, and if offset by currency adjustments, present minimal inflationary or otherwise adverse side effects, consistent with the experience in 2018-2019. While currency offset can inhibit adjustments to trade flows, it suggests that tariffs are ultimately financed by the tariffed nation, whose real purchasing power and wealth decline, and that the revenue raised improves burden sharing for reserve asset provision.

WASHINGTON, April 6 (Reuters) - More than 50 nations have reached out to the White House to begin trade talks since U.S. President Donald Trump rolled out sweeping new tariffs, top officials said on Sunday as they defended levies that wiped out nearly $6 trillion in value from U.S. stocks last week and downplayed economic fallout. On Sunday morning talk shows, Trump's top economic advisers sought to portray the tariffs as a savvy repositioning of the U.S. in the global trade order. They also tried to minimize the economic fallout from last week's tumultuous rollout, ahead of Monday's expected bumpy opening of Asian stock markets.

More than 50 countries have contacted White House to start trade talks - Trump adviser

More than 50 countries have reached out to the White House to begin trade talks, the US national economic council director Kevin Hassett has told ABC News’ This Week programme. He said:

I got a report from the USTR last night (the office of the US trade representative) that more than 50 countries have reached out to the president to begin a negotiation.

But they are doing that because they understand that they bear a lot of the tariff.

And so I don’t think you will see a big effect on the consumer in the US because I do think that the reason why we have a persistent, long run trade deficit is these people have very inelastic supply.

They have been dumping goods into the country in order to create jobs say in China.

Kevin Hassett speaks to members of the media at the White House. Kevin Hassett speaks to members of the media at the White House. Photograph: Kent Nishimura/Reuters

Hasset denied that the tariffs were part of a strategy by Trump to crash financial markets to pressure the US federal reserve to cut interest rates, insisting there were would be no “political coercion” of the central bank.

As we have been reporting throughout the day, goods imported from dozens of countries and territories are now going to be taxed at sharply higher rates, and that is expected to drive up the costs of everything from cars to clothes to computers.

These tariffs – which can run as high as 50% - are meant to punish countries for trade barriers that Trump says unfairly limit US exports and cause it to run huge trade deficits.

It is unclear whether the tariffs will be long lasting or if Washington will lower or drop them in response to other countries negotiating to reduce their own tariffs and other trade barriers.

US retail giants predicted that prices were “highly likely” to start rising for US almost immediately after a 25% duty came into effect on exports from Mexico to the US.

Americans have been warned to brace for higher prices more generally too, with households fearing a recession in the future and higher inflation because of tariffs.

Trump’s team has said any short term shock to the economy will be worth the net positives of the tariffs, which the US president claims will help bring manufacturing back to the states and boost tax revenues.

I trust you good people more than most.

I understand what this meme is saying, obviously.

What I’d like to know is if this is wrong or misguided, and if so, why. I am learning a lot in this subreddit, but I’m still learning.

One thing I see is that the numbers aren’t factual.

I’ve also heard from some of you (paraphrased) that if we’re looking at the 5 year graph, we’re cooked.

I’d like to be able to debate things like this and know what I’m talking about, basically. Can anyone shed some light?

Thanks.

So the time is upon us. The reckoning. And the question is, what are peoples' thoughts on a possible Black Monday tomorrow?

On a positive note, unlike 1987, where there were no circuit breakers in place, we now have circuit breakers to minimize the harm.

There are 2 conflicting historical statistics regarding the odds of another Black Monday:

1) 80% of the 3rd day after two consecutive -4.5% losses on the S & P, the S & P went positive at an average of about 3%.

2) 95% of the time SPY drops more than 1.5% on a Friday, SPY finishes lower the following Monday.

While things do look extremely rough, what companies or sectors do we believe are the best positioned for the new tariff economy?

This is a good time for us to do extensive research. Looking for companies that can help defend our portfolio, and provide sustainability.

Peter Navarro said companies that are already investing in USA or moving manufacturing back will do really good in this market. They will perhaps subsidize our companies.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/03/business/video/the-lead-peter-navarro-president-trump-tariffs-stock-markets-jobs-americans-tapper

Although car manufacturers look really rough at the moment, will USA car manufacturers gain a bigger market share in the US?

Tesla I believe has the highest percent American made cars, but everyone hates them right now.

https://kogod.american.edu/autoindex/2024

Some Japanese cars have better American made index then lot of USA companies.

We need an American-Made Index for companies in the stock market at this point. Or an American made ETF.

I wanted to visualize the paradigm change from pre to post 2009 for the S&) 500. The chart is from 1985 to present in log scale. The trend from '85-'09 is ~9.5% CAGR. From '09-present is ~11.75%. So the S&P has recovered all of it's lost ground from '09 to be back on trend from 1985 till now. Has earnings growth supported the '09-present growth? I think most of the "excess" price rise is multiple expansion. The market won't support almost 12% YOY growth forever. It's not unreasonable to expect a retrenchment back towards the heavy dash line which represents the 9.5% CAGR from '85-'09. The trade war fiasco may be the catalyst.

Perhaps I am oversimplifying things here, but bear with me for a second.

This graph is a rough schematic representing the US stock market or the S&P 500 or whatever broad market index you like.

The valuations of stocks was steadily climbing until it reached a point in mid-February 2025 when things were at an all time high (point A on the graph). Then there was a steep drop since then which we are currently experiencing right now due to tariff related turmoil in the markets.

Eventually, we will reach the bottom. Nobody knows when this will be, but there will eventually be a bottom that has either already occurred or will occur in the future (represented as point B).

The value of X in the chart represents the total percent drop that the market will experience. It could be 15-20% or it could be 50-60%, or somewhere in between.

After the drop, we will have a recovery or a period of sideways trading and then a recovery.

I am not trying to time the bottom because you don’t know you’re at the bottom when you are experiencing it. For all we know, this past Friday was the bottom.

What I am trying to do, is to figure out how much of a recovery after the most recent bottom I would want to see in order for me to decide, okay, let’s return to investing in good companies for the long term.

To give an example, let’s say that between now and June 2025, the S&P 500 drops by a total of 30% from its all time high in February. If you saw a 6% percent recovery in the S&P by August, would that make you feel like that’s enough to know that the worst is behind us and that you can confidently put your money in the market again? This would represent a 20% recovery of the value lost in all this.

The idea here is not that we try to time the market and invest exactly at the bottom, but instead that while we can’t identify when we are at the bottom, we can certainly look back and say that the bottom has passed us already and that we can still capture some large percentage of the recovery in stock prices before the market makes a new all time high (whether that be months or years from now into the future).

Lastly, I know people are going to say this to me, but please do not recommend that I DCA throughout this market downturn or that I invest a set amount on a regular basis. I know that this is a wise and effective investment strategy, but it is simply not the point of this though exercise.

Thank you

Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te on Sunday offered zero tariffs as the basis for talks with the U.S., pledging to remove trade barriers rather than imposing reciprocal measures and saying Taiwanese companies will raise their U.S. investments.

In a video message released by his office after meeting executives from small and medium-sized companies at his residence, Lai said given Taiwan's dependence on trade the economy would inevitably have a hard time dealing with the tariffs, but that he thought the impact could be minimised.

"Tariff negotiations can start with 'zero tariffs' between Taiwan and the United States, with reference to the U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement," Lai said.

***India and Vietnam have offered the same deal as well. Indonesia and Singapore have announced they won't be retaliating either.

You’ve heard the chorus on Reddit, X, or some loudmouth on TV; “tariffs crashed the economy” in 1873 and 1929, ruined everything. Utter BS.

The 1873-79 mess was all railroads and greed, not trade taxes. Picture railroads sprawling wild, banks like Jay Cooke & Co. overbetting their chips and a global cash crunch strangling the table. That’s the Long Depression’s origin story. The 1875 tariff tweak barely registered, cut rates after the chaos hit and the big protectionist swings came way later. This was a finance implosion not a tariff flop.

Then 1929-41 the Fed fumbled, not Smoot-Hawley. Stock bubble bursts, banks fold, the Fed tightens while everyone’s hoarding gold like it’s the apocalypse. Smoot-Hawley in 1930 stirred the wreckage, made it uglier, but the fire was already raging. Bernanke and Friedman pin it on monetary blunders, not trade walls. Facts over feelings.

This matters because people crave easy villains. “Tariffs killed us!” fits on a bumper sticker. Truth is messier. Bad calls can worsen a storm, but they rarely ignite it. Today, worry about debt towers, puffed up markets, or some geopolitical wildcard, not tariffs alone. Dig into Bernanke’s essays, Friedman and Schwartz’s work, Irwin’s trade breakdowns and quit swallowing lazy hype. Fear the real monster, not the shadow they’re selling

While I understand the frustration and fear surrounding the market decline over the past few days, it's important to add some context and balance to the narrative. Calling this the “greatest con in history” overlooks several key facts and broader economic dynamics.

First, the U.S. economy before the tariffs wasn’t flawless. While it was strong in certain sectors, it was also contending with inflationary pressures, fragile global supply chains, and deep-rooted systemic inequality, issues that long predate Trump’s tariff policies.

Second, tariffs aren’t inherently destructive. They’re a policy tool used by administrations across the political spectrum, sometimes to protect domestic industries, other times to influence international negotiations. Their impact depends on how and when they’re applied.

Third, millions of Americans are exposed to the market through pensions, 401(k)s, and mutual funds. To say these people are clueless or undeserving of sympathy is both unfair and unproductive. Most don’t have the time or resources to actively manage investments, they place their trust in institutions to safeguard their futures. If that trust is betrayed, we should demand accountability from those in power, not disparage ordinary people doing the best they can.

Finally, calling this a generational disaster before the dust settles may be premature. Markets are cyclical. We’ve endured major downturns before, the dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-induced collapse in 2020, and though painful, recovery has followed. This moment will likely be defined not just by the drop itself, but by how leadership, institutions, and individuals respond in the aftermath.

Let’s keep the discussion grounded in facts, and focus on what comes next.

For 100 years or so we have lived in a world in which the USA is the strongest economy in the world and sets the tone. I am new to world of investments and stocks, my father is teaching me the basics and as of right now making most of the transactions in my portfolio. He has in my opinion a blind faith in the us economy and it's strength. but in light of the recent actions taken by Trump and their devastating affects on the markets I am forced to rethink. I know that the US economy is arguably stronger than all of the EU combined and most of Asia. With all that said there is still a question that I can't stop thinking about:

how likely is all that to change? Because if Trump will continue in his current course of trade wars things won't get better!

what to do right now? Keep investing in the US market or go to Europe.

For some context I am 22 years old, have a modest portfolio meant for long term investments which as of now consisting of: IVV, GRNY, S&P 500 Equal Weight, S&P 500 Financials Sector and NASDAQ.

Would love to here your opinions as I am sure I am not the only one who thought about that in the last few weeks.

Saw on a Reuters article that Jaguar/Land Rover is pausing all new car deliveries to the US because of tariffs. If this becomes a permanent policy and they just decide to stop selling to the US, what happens to dealerships?

Does the parent company have to pay our dealerships since they are stopping shipments of new products? Or does the dealership just switch to a used car dealership or try to become a dealership for another brand?

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uks-jaguar-land-rover-pause-shipments-us-over-tariffs-times-says-2025-04-05/