If a company has $8.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents after debt with 386 million shares outstanding, I see a $21.50 price target. If the stock price hits that why not go all in?

Check my presumptions and what I may be missing?

I'm looking for one place where I can find all this info

1. Fair value of the stock and graph of fair value with historical value
2. Last 5 year growth strategies which worked, and what didn't work
3. X factors of the company
4. Influential people in the company
5. market positioning
6. operational efficiency & scale

I know financial numbers are present on every app, but that doesn't help much. I want to pick stocks of the sector which I know, where I can understand the business rather blindly trusting others.

If you use some other method to do minimalistic research through multiple apps and save it on docs/sheets - let me know. I want to understand the procedure most people follow.

Hi,

Newbie here. I was looking at casino stocks like MGM Resorts, Caesars, Las Vegas Sands and they all seem to have suffered big drops in the last few months. MGM has a PE of around 10. Those stocks got hammered when Covid hit and then skyrocketed, and now has fallen again. I wonder why?

It seems those stocks are pretty immune from tariffs, so I wonder if they are a good buy now. Also, their drops started long before the tariffs this month, and I'm curious why.

Thanks

Hey everyone!
I’ve just built the MVP of Intrinsic, a research & valuation tool that helps you analyze stocks using DCF valuation, real-time charts, and financial data. It’s still in the development phase, and I’d love for you to check it out and share your thoughts:

🔗 https://intrinsic.streamlit.app/

I’m also looking to bring a few passionate folks on board — devs, designers, or finance enthusiasts — to help build this into a full-fledged platform. No pressure, just good vibes and shared ambition.

Open to any feedback, ideas, or collabs.

After a few years of trying to outsmart the market — reading candlesticks, setting alerts, chasing the next breakout — I realized something:

The people who win at this game aren’t the ones refreshing charts.
They’re the ones holding boring ETFs and good companies for 20+ years.

I made the switch:

• No more trading apps on my phone
• Just monthly auto-investments into ETFs and undervalued stocks
• More time to think, read, and not obsess over red days

And weirdly… it feels great.

I've been sharing this mental shift in a sarcastic finance newsletter called Lazy Bull — focused on passive investing, ETFs, and learning to chill: 📩 https://lazybull.beehiiv.com

Curious if anyone here also moved from trading to just building slow, boring wealth. What made you switch?

I will buy stocks that rebound faster—those that don’t produce or have a dependency on physical products like Tesla cars or iPhones, or Amazon and are least affected by tariffs.

Mostly AI, Quantum, Cloud, Software, AV software and Space. Nvidia (exception due demand for their chips) Arms Holdings Rigetti Arbe Rocklab Microsoft Alphabet

Basically the title. If you don’t use any platform, do you read through companies’ balance sheets and financials to figure out their intrinsic value, look at the company’s offerings and management, or both? I’ve tried doing both but I find it’s really time consuming. Wondering if anyone else has the same experience or if I’m doing it inefficiently (I’m new to value investing btw).

I once attended a closed door conference with Warren and Munger a long time ago... when I asked when do you know its the bottom. Warren said timing the market is a waste of time for an amateur investor.. But I insisted ...and this is what Munger alluded to...

"You don't buy when you feel like throwing up when determining if the stock market hit the bottom. You wait, then wait some more until it feels like no one can take it anymore and it makes no sense. That's when you buy."

This was a very interesting read, and goes into the macroeconomic impacts (at a very high level). You're better off reading the article, but I'll summarize some big points below:

Immediate impacts is that input costs rise which shifts aggregate supply left (diagram 1). This leads to higher prices and lower consumption.

If these effects lead to a slow down in consumption, aggregate demand curve also shifts left (diagram 2). The impact is deflationary pressures (compared to diagram 1) and even slower growth.

Simultaneously, as prices climb and uncertainty mounts, consumer spending slows, further dragging on aggregate demand (AD). Compounded by likely retaliatory tariffs that dampen exports, we anticipate a leftward shift in aggregate demand, worsening the growth outlook.

The U.S. faces a short-term environment best described as stagflation-lite: inflation persists while growth stalls.

Medium and long term impacts are basically weak longterm growth as supply-side is stunted.

Coming into the year, we knew tariffs were coming. My initial thoughts were that it would be interesting to see the effects of a 5% to 10% tariff. Minor tweaking probably doesn't directly lead to the effects laid out in the paper.

I don't see how 100% tariffs from our main importer doesn't throw things way out of whack.

Answers with respect to the trump tarrifs are welcome...

I would like to take on one of the bigger books on value investing and analysis. For those that have read both, which did you prefer? Or which would be better to read first? If you have only read one of them, how did you like it?

I have read some shorter and simpler value investing books, but am a numbers nerd and would like to read something more involved.

I am doing a survey on the tariffs. Please share with Republicans and Democrats.

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScsg1RCkV_Kcebga9FZ-Mt050aPZmOHhIDst4Oc8L6gGgoPuA/viewform?usp=header

I will publish the results.

They say the best buys are made when you are shitting bricks. We should hit bear market levels (-20%) tomorrow or this week. We are almost there. How will you celebrate Bear Market Day ? What is on you list to buy. I plan to buy NVDA and NVO. Two stocks I had missed out on but want to get my hands on them.

Firstly l don't know much about the pharma industry and secondly I'm usually very cautious to invest in individual pharma stocks, but Pfizer is looking so enticing that it feels too good to be true.

Does anyone have any insight as to whether Pfizer is good value?

Need some advice from my fellow Value-Investors about what you think about TLT right now? Sentiment on the dollar is pretty bad atm and long yields have also been rising. Having said that, that might make this current entry point attractive while we wait weeks/months for the bottom and the recession to arrive. Thank you for reading and looking forward to your guy's advices!

Here's a little case study/narrative on one of my painful failures and its relationship to the ongoing market stress.

I do my own DCF valuations of companies, using cautious assumptions, as the key input to my investing decisions. I check my conclusions against those of reputable analysts to help me calibrate my margin of safety.

Based on my own estimate of Estée Lauder's intrinsic value of $95 a share, and Morningstar's estimate of $162, I recently bought the stock in the low 70's. Because it is a wide moat company with a century old storied brand I accepted the relatively small (for me) margin of safety and overlooked the leverage ratio that is higher than I usually tolerate.

Today I sold it for $51. In decades of investing I can count on one hand the number of times I've sold a company for less than I paid for it.

Estée Lauder get's 25% of its revenue from China which, naturally, had driven its growth for years. But sells in 160 countries around the world. China's recession hurt the company's performance and I perceived it to be on sale for transient reasons. In retrospect, I find no fault with my analysis based on information available at the time.

Talking to a European friend yesterday about the hostility he's witnessed from ordinary people toward the USA, and especially toward American brands and people who buy them, it occurred to me to do a sensitivity analysis on my DCF's for consumer facing companies with strong global brands -- not just for specific tariff risks. I adjusted my assumptions about Estée Lauder and came up with a new intrinsic value of $38. That's a very low confidence estimate because of the uncertainty in the assumptions so I would want a huge margin of safety to that number.

I checked to see if the Morningstar analyst had updated his analysis. I found that he had lowered it from $162 to $120 some weeks ago based on: "prolonged woes in China, higher investments, and an expanded restructuring that will delay top-line and operating margin recovery." But, to my shock, the latest note providing a post "Liberation Day" update said the $120 estimate was reaffirmed and described the market's repricing as an "over reaction." It explained this way: "We acknowledge an extended period of such tariffs will likely impact financial results of beauty companies by pushing up costs and dampening demand. However, given the possibility of policy reversals pending US-EU negotiations, we are not incorporating the tariff scenario in our base-case valuation for now."

This reinforced a couple things for me. First, even the "smart money" is engaged in speculation that current conditions (1930's level tariffs) will change and change very soon despite the complete absence of any evidence to support that speculation. Second, they are still assuming mean reversion even though there has been a paradigm shift.

A substantial portion of EL's value came from the wide moat its brand brand gave it and the resulting premium prices it could charge. That same brand, which was a moat between the business and its competitors, is now a moat between itself and a substantial share of its customers. It has been transformed from an asset to a liability. It also derived value from its global diversification which lowered its earnings volatility. That asset too is now a liability.

I have a high conviction that, even if the speculation about the US government quickly coming to its senses turns out to be right, a substantial portion of this value destruction would persist anyway. And my conviction is just as strong that, following the market's recent pullback, many equity prices have fallen far less than intrinsic values of the firms.

Look at it this way — it doesn’t matter who pays the tariff. At the end of the day, the cost of doing business always gets passed down to the consumer. What Trump has done by enacting all these tariffs is nothing more than create a national sales tax.

For example: Assume a retail markup of 100%. Something a retail store sells for $100 costs them $50 at wholesale. The wholesaler (importer) typically has a similar markup, making the original price $25. Way back when I owned a small retail store, this was typical.

All other costs remain the same, so a 100% tariff (an additional $25 fee on a $25 import) moves the final price towards $125. A 20% tariff (on $25 import) only adds $5 to the final retail price, now $105.

American made stuff pays no tariff, so the price of domestic stuff doesn’t have to change. It will, of course, because why not? But that’s self inflicted.

These tariffs will accomplish two things — increased tax revenue, and lower consumption in general. Both are actually needed — the former for the deficit “problem” (not really a problem, but that’s a different argument), and if anyone is familiar with the work of Nate Hagens or Simon Micheaux or their “de-growth” ilk, we desperately need to cut back on consumption for the sake of global warming, mass extinctions and other resource depletions. Maybe you disagree, but cutting back on our rapacious consumption of Earth’s resources sure can’t hurt.

Now, what percentage of our total consumption is subject to the tariffs? And what’s the rate as a weighted average of all the countries we import from? Just spitballing, it’s probably going to hurt the consumer about as much as doubling the sales tax they already pay.

Yeah, that sucks, but it’s not a panic scenario. We’ll survive long enough for the political consequences to come home to roost. Unless the public is too stupid to make the connection. Which, I fear, may be the case. That could be a real reason to panic.

Bottom line: Buy the dip. IMHO, of course.

Guys the unexpected has happened, many of you here I have seen have held bag on oxy at 50 levels. The assumption was that crude oil prices would hover around 70 and then go higher up but today the wti crude oil futures crashed below 60 as u well know coz of the tariff fiasco of trump and expected recession. Now if u have read the investor report of oxy, the effect on free cash flow for 1 dollar decrease in oil barrel price is around 260 million so that would mean , given today's 59 futures price a 11 dollar decrease from the avg crude oil price of 70 for FY 2024-25 which gives us 11*26 = 2.86 million dollar less free cashflow and yes if they go to 50 dollar a barrel it's done. 2024-25 FCF was 4 billion, so that gives us 1 billion FCF for this year if oil futures hang around 58 and now that opec has started to increase their production along with a recession sentiment we can see worse times.

Now coming to the share price, people have touted that oxy is undervalued but I always thought it was fairly valued at 60 dollars a share which was the case when the company had 70 dollar a barrel cost. Now I actually didn't do much calculation and just bought shares of oxy at 38.9 dollars a share today which I saw go down 7 percent the same day and I sat and did the calculation. If oil goes back to 70 dollars we can see the stock back at 55 range. Now how much time will it take is the question , coz will trump trigger a recession which obviously we can't predict but surely for the near term the increased opec production has signalled worse prices for oil coz the Saudis can afford to have more barrels at lesser price as long as it is just a tad lower than their current income. The stock is now at 36 dollars a share, and assuming it takes 2 years time( a non conservative estimate) for oil to get back to 70's range or more as demand comes back high after a recession, oxy would be back to 60 giving us a return of 54 percent (over my buying price of 38.95).

But there's a catch, oxy has a lot of debt which it said it intends on decreasing with assumptions of that constant 70 s oil barrel range thesis. Now those will be halted and complete dividend slashes will happen and that can be pretty bad as the outlook wouldn't be so good for oxy given that position. But again there's a catch ,it might very well be that this whole decrease in barrel price (which are just futures) doesnt hold up and oil increases to 65 dollars a barrel (that would mean we would do fantastic on the investment) if things change due to trump holding back and assuming that we don't enter into a recession but we will have oversupply over the short term though with opec increasing production giving us depressed prices.

So my overall judgement is that oxy right now is an okay bet at these prices, the risks are there But the reward seems to be juicy as well. What are ur thoughts on this folks ? I am just an Indian software guy working in Bangalore and I am pretty new to investing so my thesis can have a lot of holes in it and therefore would like you guys to comment on this.

Wbd on the other hand at 7.7 dollars looks good to buy on a side note as well.

Today's parabolic moves upward despite being already one standard deviation above the "normal envelope" indicates probable systemic, significant correlation risk within major US banks. I have been monitoring these instruments for signs of distress and balked at signaling last week despite the second derivative movement being parabolic. There can be no question from the swaps market activity now though -- insiders are aware and already pricing for ratings downgrades at these institutions. With VIX at a 52+ we know there is crisis somewhere with vol-sellers possibly 100% blown out at this point and primary dealers under immense stress. These charts indicate that markets are pricing for a crisis that spreads systemically to these banks, but without a crystal ball, that is not guaranteed to happen. I will leave it at "I have deep concerns at this point."

ETA: I will attempt to paste the images of the CDS 5 Year charts for these institutions in the comments below, or at least links to them. This is difficult in that the community bans sharing images of charts and this is terminal-based data, so I'll figure something out.

Hey!

After using multiple tools to research stocks and talking to other average investors, I felt the need for a tool that simplified things a bit and explained the very basics of a stock:

1. How does the company make money?
2. Whats the performance and fundamentals?
3. Why is the stock price moving the way it does?

I built StockExplainer.com aiming to simplify and provide this research to everyone. I've worked on it for the past +6 months and i would love to get feedback before scaling it further. I expect that the most experienced hardcode investors of you may find it a bit too simple, but I would still love to know if you find value in it, if you will use it. (its free) or what would be missing for you to use it.

Looking forward to reading your feedback and make it more useful for you all.

Personally i have my cash in TLT (long-dated treasury ETF).

But i was wondering which form of cash people are holding and what the pros and cons for different situations are.

For me, i chose TLT at these prices as a recession/correction hedge. I prefer it over something like 1-3months treasuries. What about you guys?

Hypothesis: Short term increased tariff inflation will lead to deflation over the longer term. Consumers will hold onto cash and refuse the higher prices leading to deflation and multiple contraction.

Case Study #1: McKinley’s 1890 tariff act

We saw a downwards trend of nearly -5% to our currency. The deflation was due to extreme economic contraction and lead to the panic of 1893 and America’s first depression.

These tariffs set by McKinley were upwards of 49.5% (Dwarfing President Trump’s numbers)

Case Study #2: Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression

We once again saw major economic contraction and this led to the currency deflating up to -11% during the period.

These tariffs were upwards of 60% and were still dwarfing some of president Trump’s tariffs in comparison.

In each case it led to Multiple contraction across the board. In these cases the only time to find “value” was during the end of the deflationary period, since we had true P/E ratios to work off of (ending the tariff acts was only cake on top).

My question to this sub is: in the case of deflation and Multiple Contraction after tariffs are placed, wouldn’t the most prudent strategy be to wait or find other markets to enter into? I’m seeing some sentiment that we can find value right now but history is almost telling me we can’t if these two things show up?

Thank you all for your comments.

After adjusting for potential share dilution (~5.2% of float), 3 out of 4 major valuation-to-growth metrics (P/E, P/S, P/B) are still under 1—both on a 1-year and 5-year CAGR basis. That’s not nothing, especially for a mega-cap.

Balance sheet’s a fortress. Revenue and earnings are growing faster than the stock price. P/E is sitting at a 10-year low, which is wild given all the AI buzz.

Only real caution flag for me is Free Cash Flow. It’s growing, but the price you’re paying for that growth (P/FCF-to-growth) is well above 1, especially on a short-term basis. Even when you add back CapEx, the efficiency story still feels a little stretched. AI inference costs may explain that.

Regulatory risk? Still looming, but delayed. Even big EU fines take years to resolve—and Alphabet’s been through that dance before. Doesn’t look existential.

AI could actually be a tailwind for ad revenue: new ad surfaces (Circle, Lens, Gemini), same-level monetization in AI Overviews, and strong early ROI from AI-optimized campaigns.
2.5/4 stars from me. (blame dilution)