r/economy 1h ago

Jaguar and Land Rover finally stop shipments to the USA. Maybe Trump is onto something after all?

Upvotes

Photo above - This is what the world's coolest soccer mom drives. The Range Rover SV "Carmel Edition", $345,000. As of yesterday, it's no longer being exported to America.

I hadn’t thought that far ahead – to predict which automaker would back away from the US completely. If I HAD been asked to guess, I would have said something like Fiat or Alfa Romeo – very low sales numbers. But they’re part of the giant (but troubled) Stellantis. Ferrari? Lamborghini? Nope, the first player to fold in this poker game was Jaguar/Land Rover. They sold around 100,000 units in 2024, depending on whose story you believe (statistics vary). Anyway, they’re out. See link below.

I was concerned that genteel British craftsmen sipping Earl Grey tea and noshing on cucumber sandwiches during break time at Jaguar factories might start getting pink slips. Then I checked further, and of course most of them were let go quite some time ago. Jaguars and Land Rovers are now churned out in factories located in China, India, Brazil, and Slovakia. Some are still made in the 2 remaining UK factories. But if you’re driving one, you need to check the window sticker to find out where it was bolted together.

There is another reason normal people might not care if Jaguar Land Rover heads for the door: those things have possibly THE LOWEST build quality - slash - highest defect rates in the industry. There is no breakdown on where the problem cars come from. Just keep in mind that JD Power and Consumer Reports are constantly waving the caution flag on those brands.

If you own a Jaguar/Land Rover dealership (Like “Jaguar of Tampa”, not too far from me), you’re probably seeing your life flash before your eyes right now. How fast can you pivot to Audi or BMW? Better call right away . . . a bunch of other Jaguar dealers will probably have the same idea and pick up the phone too.

If you actually OWN a Jaguar or Land Rover (like some well-to-do Florida retirees), you have to start worrying about where you now get oil changed. Jiffy Lube probably doesn’t stock those special oil filters. Then there are brakes, shocks, piston rings, and valve trains . . . all implicated in Jaguar’s 9th circle of hell unreliability scores.

Just so you know, President Trump does NOT own a Jaguar or Land Rover. But he does have over a dozen cars, including recent both a vintage Mercedes S 600, and a Rolls Royce Phantom. Hey, maybe Rolls Royce will be the next brand to flip us the bird, and leave? Americans only bought 5,000 of them last year. And there’s only 40 dealers. Let’s do the math. Each dealer sells 10.4 cars per month on average. Maybe their breakup letter to us is already in the mail?

I’m just sayin’ . . .

upi jaguar land rover - Search News


r/economy 22h ago

Can someone smarter than me give me an opinion?

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6 Upvotes

I saw this on X and saw a bunch of people praising it. Sounds like a stretch but I know I’m not smart enough to confirm or deny this. Can someone with experience analyze this?


r/economy 13h ago

South Carolina shrimper says Trump's tariffs will provide 'immediate relief' to US fishery

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1 Upvotes

r/economy 15h ago

Could tariffs unintentionally harm small businesses

3 Upvotes

Could tariffs have unintended consequences for small businesses while favoring larger corporations?

Reflecting on India's rapid economic changes in 2016-2017, such as demonetization and the introduction of GST, when many small businesses struggled to adapt. This transition led to a significant shift in market share toward larger corporations, as smaller players faced challenges they couldn't quickly overcome.

As the U.S. considers a new tariff structure, it’s worth examining whether similar effects could emerge. Small businesses, which make up over 99% of U.S. enterprises and play a crucial role in our economic landscape, often find it challenging to absorb additional costs or quickly adjust their supply chains in response to changes.

The key question for policymakers is how to design tariffs that support a balanced market. It’s essential to ensure that small businesses are not disproportionately affected, which could lead to increased market consolidation.

Final thought: How can policymakers ensure that the implementation of tariffs promotes fair competition and supports the resilience of small businesses?

For more insights, consider exploring the following sources:

  • Impact of demonetization & GST in India: Quartz India
  • Effects of tariffs on U.S. small businesses: U.S. Chamber of Commerce

r/economy 18h ago

Elon Musk calls for the United States and Europe to establish a "zero-tariff" system and a "free trade zone."

0 Upvotes

r/economy 1h ago

Stop passing the buck onto us…

Upvotes

Hey big corporations and rich people. I think its about time that yall take the hit for the American people. The tax payers prop you up every time you make a bad financial decision and its about time you return the favor. You can afford to not profit a few billion but some cannot afford groceries.


r/economy 21h ago

Nancy Pelosi agrees with Donald Trump Tariffs back in 1996. #trump #tariffs

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0 Upvotes

r/economy 3h ago

I’m a newbie when it comes to economics — can someone explain how Trump’s new taxes could be beneficial for the USA?

0 Upvotes

r/economy 17h ago

America’s astonishing act of self-harm

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0 Upvotes

Archive copy:

https://archive.is/K9auq

Excerpts:

For the US economy, the most immediate effects of Trump’s actions will be to raise inflation and slow economic activity. Capital Economics reckons Trump’s tariff blitz could push US annual inflation above 4 per cent by the end of the year, heaping further pain on households that have suffered from a 20 per cent rise in prices since the pandemic. Interest rates may now stay higher for longer.

This was no “liberation day” for America. If Trump gets his way, the US economy will be isolated from the very system that has powered its century-long rise. The whole world will suffer, but it need not follow America’s path.


r/economy 18h ago

Given our last crash was the 2 lockdown, what is it about this tariff change that makes it unrecoverable as covid was????

0 Upvotes

After covid I was shocked to see how it played out. I was not investing back then I only properly started at peaks.

  • lockdown market boomed so soon after.
  • quantitative easing happened will this happen again in UK and USA?
  • this tariff issue affects the world so wouldn't it take longer for every economy to recover??

r/economy 18h ago

What should coffee lovers expect amid new tariffs?

0 Upvotes

r/economy 19h ago

Did Trump use tariffs as a move to force interest rate cuts in the U.S.?

0 Upvotes

I’ve been looking into it, and there’s a theory going around on social media that says Trump imposed tariffs with the intention (or at least as a side effect) of manipulating U.S. interest rates. It goes like this: 1. He imposes tariffs → 2. The markets panic → 3. Investors flee to Treasury bonds → 4. Demand for bonds rises, yields drop → 5. The Fed sees signs of economic slowdown → 6. The Fed cuts interest rates → 7. Result: the government can finance its debt more cheaply.

So far, it seems like a strategic move.

Buuut…

The problem is that tariffs also drive up prices, hurt American businesses, and ultimately hit the same consumers. On top of that, the Fed isn’t so easily pressured—despite what Trump might think. So in the end:

more debt, more inflation, nervous markets, and a trade war with China and the U.S.’s own “allies.”

The move, quite literally, backfires. What do you think?


r/economy 22h ago

Democratic party leaders about tariffs

0 Upvotes

Just a reality check. This is not Trump, but Pelosi, Sanders, Obama. I paste link for the first video on the search results. Literally searched "Obama about tariffs", and etc. -

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3BH6NqV4i7M

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tU5oghn67cQ

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NzdfQqb6StU

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/82sUTJugT_s

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/kPZQlRFE5Zc

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/AubgucSYQBE


r/economy 8h ago

South Vietnam won the war and the communists stole the victory and overtook the government

0 Upvotes

Even though many news media outlets claim that South Vietnam has lost to the communists, in fact, they actually won. Only that the communists actually took control of the government and installed a communist government, and it decimated Vietnam for good. Even though there are some Chinese and Vietnamese nationalists who argue that communism is of course good for the country, there is evidence to show that communism not only ruined China, it also ruined Vietnam. I was born in China so I know this, and when I was 17 in 1998 due to me loving freedom and democracy, I started moving to Western countries, first off to Paris for a year, then after finding out America is the best country, I moved to Massachusetts where my uncle and aunt lives.

There, I rented an apartment in Quincy and attended Northeastern and when I found out that Worcester and afterwards, Texas is a better place, I started to gravitate slowly towards those and now, I live in Sugarland TX enjoying all the freedoms and civil liberties over there.

In both China and Vietnam houses are so expensive where a 1 bedroom squalor could go upwards of 40 billion VND (1.6 million USD) and many Vietnamese are forced to live in shacks due to the fact their wages are $2000 or less per year on average. Also, communist Vietnam suppresses any free speech or civil liberties and students are essentially enslaved at school, shackled to their desks for 18 hours a day only learning propaganda. Vietnam even allows slavery as well, just like China, but to a lesser extent.

There is also a lot of crime, tons of poverty, no public services, a criminal government currently running both countries, extremely bad schools which force students into 18 hours a day of propaganda, bad healthcare/hospitals, too smelly, too much pollution, poor quality of life, bad public transit, too much tolls, bad job market, low job growth rate, high unemployment, low wages, too much taxes, too much traffic, and too many regulations. It is getting much worse since COVID and China/Vietnam has gone from a 'booming' (according to their government) country to an impoverished wasteland that is only better than countries like North Korea, Myanmar, and war torn countries. Just move to Texas. It is cheaper, has less crime, less traffic, less regulations, less taxes, less poverty, better schools, better hospitals, better quality of life, better infrastructure, better roads, better public transportation, and people in Texas are much nicer and more welcoming than in China and Vietnam.

Having been born in Shanghai in 1981 and having lived there for 17 years before moving to Europe, then America at 18, then visiting Shanghai for a week each year between 1999 and 2019 before COVID when I stopped travelling to China (in fact, my most recent trip to China was in 2019), I know that Shanghai sucks and is becoming a lot worse under Xi Jinping's cronies' leadership. Also, I went to Vietnam various times (2002, 2007, 2012, 2017, 2018, 2023, 2024), and it has been getting progressively worse since COVID. In Ho Chi Minh City, houses are so damn expensive, with a squalor 1 bedroom 50 sq m costing 40 billion VND rather than 10 billion VND for a beautiful 200-250 sq m house like those down in Sugar Land (the best place in America) and the weather is so bad that you get monsoon, typhoons, and massive tornadoes during the summer and hailstorms during the winter rather than moderate weather like in Texas.

Due to the fact Vietnam is communist as well as extremely autocratic as they are essentially a one-party state, I am no big fan of Vietnam, and let me explain here: First off, Vietnam is a 3rd world country ran by commies since 1945 with absolutely no freedom whatsoever. In fact, despite the fact China is poorer than countries like Indonesia, India, Philippines, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Pakistan, and much of Central Asia, they wanted to falsify the HDI and income numbers to make these other countries look bad so they could look good on the international stage. Wages are absolutely low with inequality rampant between city and rural folks with rural folks living like the standard of living in the least developed African countries, much of the outside world is shut (albeit at a better degree than North Korea), all the businesses are state owned (including Vingroup, VietJetAir, etc), houses are so expensive with a studio going upwards of 30-40 billion VND, crimes perpetrated by criminals and the government are rampant, and let's not forget the schools. Vietnam has some of the worst school system in the world and in my opinion is ran by a criminal enterprise. From what I heard based on testimonies by students who immigrate to the free world (the West), students are at school for 18 hours straight, forced to study propaganda topics while shackled and recite all the things they have learned and then for 6 hours a day, they are locked up in a cell with a bed and sleep there. The schools are also completely surrounded by barbed wires and the gates are guarded by security guards. Luckily, my wife and I didn't have to go to these schools back in China and instead, my parents and her parents knew better and sent us to a more liberal school for a bulk of cash. Due to the fact many Saigonese are essentially slaves and workaholics, no wonder why both China and Vietnam as a whole has some of the highest suicide rates in the world. Also, 'Vietnamese' culture has been erased in favor of communist culture and from what I heard, since COVID, Lunar New Year in a traditional sense has been banned in Vietnam. Also, ao dai is mandated as well in Vietnam amongst all women.

In Vietnam, poverty is rampant and healthcare is comparable to third world countries, there is a ton of pollution and extremely poor quality of life as people are forced into 98 hour workweeks, nearly nonexistent public transportation as people ride bikes, cows, and oxen, and only the elite have a car, bad job market, low job growth rate, high unemployment, low wages, too much taxes, and too many regulations. People in Vietnam are also xenophobic as well towards the outside world and I have seen beatings of foreigners visiting Vietnam. I have lived in Shanghai and have visited Shanghai every year when in the west until 2019, and let me tell you, as long as the criminal government is still around, it has been and will get a lot worse over time and a lot harder to enter as Shanghai and China as a whole is essentially just propaganda. There are also a lot of tropical diseases as well and one of my cousins in their 60s died due to an infectious disease in Mui Ne about 5 years ago. Also, due to the rampant depression and workaholism, a lot of people (including my 24F niece (who died due to dyeing her hair and having a brain aneurysm because of it) and my 15F niece in Cambridge MA who are both Chinese) have resorted to things like unnatural hair dye and stuff and to lighten their skin as well as plastic surgery to look more European and less authentic and that could be amongst the reasons many Vietnamese live in poverty.

Even though people claim that Texans are misogynistic, homophobic, racist, xenophobic, and Sinophobic, that is not the case. In fact, my house in Pearland I bought in 2003 for $75k which is 1500 sqft is now worth $300k, and even though I am Chinese, Texans are very polite towards me. See, in Texas, you get a much nicer house in a much nicer area for cheaper, which makes Sugar Land a better value for money. I really hope the communists either get themselves out of power or to liberalize the country before things get too late and people start to flee en masse kinda like in Vietnam back in 1975 for a much better life in Western countries or SEA countries because I could already see things getting progressively worse since COVID. I also talk to my older sister (53F) every week too, and she really regretted not moving to America when I tried sponsoring her back in 2012 when I became a US citizen.

I envision that if the Taiwanese government remained in control instead of the CCP, then Shanghai would have been a very great place to live and on par with Virginia in terms of goodness and much better than Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, and California.

As for Vietnam, South Vietnam won and if the communists didn't overtake control and hijack the government like the CCP, then Nguyen Van Thieu would become the president and he would instill democratic values throughout Vietnam. The capital will be at Saigon and even if Hanoi is poorer than HCMC, both will be better than even DC, let alone Boston or NYC, two of the worst cities in America. Vietnam will have a lot of freedoms, Nordic values, no death penalty, prestigious universities where people aspire to study at, multiple political parties, clean cities instead of all the trash that has accumulated in Hanoi and Saigon, as well as very good infrastructure. Vietnam would have had high speed rail that will take you from Hanoi to Saigon in 4 hours and Saigon will have an extensive metro system just like Texas. Also, schools in Vietnam will be some of the best run, kinda like Sugarland schools, Vietnamese will make on average 20 billion VND a year rather than 40 million, everybody will own nice villas as every town will become an Atherton/Greenwich/Beverly Hills, healthcare would be envied throughout Asia, Vietnam will produce some of the best talent and will have giant conglomerates like Samsung (American company created by Koreans), Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Facebook, Nvidia, etc, some of the lowest pollution levels of any country, tons of electric cars, no tolls, very good job market, no unemployment, low taxes, less traffic, and less regulations.


r/economy 10h ago

This is the reason why I was saying “the Biden recession back in 2022.

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0 Upvotes

Yeah things were terrible back in 2022. But we are starting to make a come back.


r/economy 21h ago

Trump's tariffs: A unique opportunity for BRICS and the Global South to fully escape from dollar tyranny

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2 Upvotes

Trump's latest action is of very high risk, because it may boost further the de-dollarization process and trigger a new round of BRICS expansion. 


r/economy 20h ago

Americans Buy a Crazy Amount of Cheap Stuff. It’s Costing Us Dearly.

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51 Upvotes

r/economy 17h ago

2028 American median income should drop by 35% bringing American household income back to the year 2000.

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0 Upvotes

Did this model in chat gpt to compare the Smoot Holley act of 1930 that presented a 40% tariff to todays tariffs from trump.I’ve added some inflation adjusted graphs for current comparison but I do believe this to be true and with taxes this should send most Americans or the majority into bankruptcy or foreclosures.

If we take the Smoot-Hawley era as a rough historical model, a 30% GDP drop during the Great Depression was tied to a global trade collapse influenced in part by widespread tariffs.

Now, let’s explore what that might look like in 2025 terms, assuming 25% tariffs on all imports (a major shock to today’s globalized economy):

Baseline: 2024 U.S. GDP    •   Nominal GDP: ~$28 trillion    •   Real GDP (2024 estimate): ~$23 trillion (in 2012 dollars)

Potential Economic Impact of 25% Across-the-Board Tariffs

  1. Trade Disruption Model    •   The U.S. imports about $4 trillion in goods and services.    •   A 25% tariff would effectively tax that at $1 trillion.    •   This would raise costs for consumers and businesses, likely cutting demand and productivity.

  2. Retaliation and Export Losses    •   The U.S. exports about $3 trillion. Broad tariffs would likely prompt retaliatory tariffs, reducing demand for U.S. goods abroad—especially in agriculture, autos, and tech.

  3. Investment & Supply Chain Shocks    •   Modern supply chains are highly integrated. A sudden tariff wall would disrupt industries (e.g. automotive, electronics, energy), reduce investment, and increase inflation.

Estimated GDP Impact

Using the 1930s model as a conceptual baseline (not a direct predictor), a 30% real GDP drop would be:    •   Real GDP loss: ~$6.9 trillion    •   New Real GDP: ~$16.1 trillion    •   This would wipe out a decade or more of economic growth.

Real-World Notes    •   In today’s diversified, service-heavy economy, the U.S. might not suffer a full 30% drop—but a 10–20% contraction is plausible in a worst-case scenario with global retaliation, disrupted supply chains, and a confidence shock.    •   A 25% across-the-board tariff policy would be historically unprecedented and economically extreme—more severe than even Trump-era targeted tariffs.

If a 25% across-the-board tariff policy in 2025 were to trigger a severe economic downturn similar to the Great Depression, real median household income could potentially decrease by approximately 35% by 2028. This would mean a reduction from about $75,000 in 2024 to approximately $48,750 in 2028, adjusted for inflation.

This projection underscores the significant impact such economic policies could have on household incomes, potentially reversing decades of income growth.

What do you all think? Obviously dumb calculated move from the Republicans but don’t want to get into a political thing.

Just want to hear honest feedback.


r/economy 21h ago

Can tariffs spark a shift to quality over quantity?

2 Upvotes

I’ve been thinking about the potential impacts of the U.S. imposing 20-25% tariffs on imports. My hypothesis is that this wouldn’t just raise prices, but could also shift our economy from relying on cheap, fast imports (like a lot of what the US gets from Asia) to focusing more on domestic production or more considerate imports, potentially with higher quality and more sustainable practices.

Curious to hear your thoughts. Do you think such tariffs could lead to a qualitative change in the economy, or would we just find new ways to keep the “fast and cheap” model alive? Looking forward to hearing your insights!


r/economy 2h ago

An emerging split in the Republican ranks?

12 Upvotes

We're All Dead': GOP Senator Reacts to Trump Tariffs.

Sen. John Kennedy (R) of Louisiana (of all people) said the quiet part out loud when he implied Trump is lying through his store-bought teeth. He openly admitted the Trump Administration is adrift, victim of the currents of uncertainty and fear it itself initiated, and all the world economies put in jeopardy by the arrogance of one fool.

Some say it is just a rash gamble, but it is so much more.

This jackass with a golf ball where his brain should be, has turned our allies against us -- they can never trust us again as long as we give dictatorial power to a green card holder and blithering incompetent! Our industries are staggering under uncertainty, our 401(k)s are bleeding our retirement dreams, and rampant unemployment will soon lead to a blinding recession if congress doesn't act.

But the Republican congress as uncaring as Kennedy about the deaths of children in Texas from measles, and while are economy is shuddering in disbelief, they are passing a bill to give 4 1/2 trillion-dollar tax cuts to the already filthy rich -- money that will go into stock portfolios and never see the light of day.

Read this:

'We're All Dead': GOP Senator Reacts to Trump Tariffs.

Story by Marco Margaritoff • 3h •

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) wasn’t concerned enough about President Donald Trump’s steep international tariffs to vote against them Wednesday — like some of his GOP colleagues — but did scold staunch supporters of the policy with a dire warning to multiple outlets.

“In the long run, we’re all dead,” he told CNN’s Manu Raju on Capitol Hill for “The Lead with Jake Tapper” on Wednesday. “Short run matters, too. Nobody knows what the impact of these tariffs is going to be on the economy.”

Trump dubbed April 2 “Liberation Day” and announced a sweeping 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the U.S., with levies on dozens of countries set even higher. He repeated his false claim Wednesday that foreign nations, rather than Americans, will shoulder the costs. Only four Republican senators Wednesday — Rand Paul (Ky.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and Susan Collins (Maine) — joined Democrats in voting against the emergency powers Trump is using to impose a 25% tariff against Canada.

Kennedy did not, but reiterated his concerns in a Newsmax interview later that day.

“What the president is saying is, if you want to sell stuff to Americans, move your business to America and hire Americans and contribute to our economy, don’t just sell stuff,” he told anchor Rob Schmitt. “In the long run, he’s right. But in the long run, we’re all dead.”

The Louisiana senator added that he’s heard both favorable and disastrous assessments on the tariffs from economists in Washington, D.C. but said even “late-night psychic hotlines” are more accurate in their predictions — and slammed blind supporters of the policy.

“It may not [lead to inflation] this time,” Kennedy added. “Am I predicting that it will or won’t? No. I’m going to say it again. We’re in uncharted waters and we don’t know. And anybody who tries to tell you that they know what the short-term impact is going to be is just lying.”

“Either that or they’re selling deep stupid,” he concluded.

Trump’s tariffs are a ‘negotiating tool’ and won’t be in effect ‘long term’: Republican lawmaker said.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/we-re-all-dead-gop-senator-reacts-to-trump-tariffs/ar-AA1CfjLa


r/economy 15h ago

Trump supporters counter protest the “Hands Off” National Day of Action anti-Trump/Musk march in New York City

390 Upvotes

r/economy 3h ago

downturn signal triggered back in december, sharing server messages from march top since i barely use reddit and people were calling it hindsight

0 Upvotes

Server Messages - https://imgur.com/a/0RtYGkM

(btw i added the messages because i barely use reddit and some people were clowning me on earlier posts. figured this would help show i was already calling it near the top of spy in march. i posted about it a lot in the server i’m in, so it’s not hindsight. being skeptical is fair, but the timestamps are there.)

not here to hype fear or act dramatic. i’ve built a macro-based signal over the years. it’s not about price patterns, not moving averages etc it’s a mix of economic indicators that tend to shift before real downturns start to unfold. it doesn’t show up often because the conditions it tracks just don’t come together like this very frequently.

it’s only triggered a few times in the last 20 plus years:

early 2000 before the dot-com collapse
november 2007 just ahead of the great financial crisis
mid 2015 before the 2016 earnings recession
november 2019 right before the covid crash
and now late december 2024

i didn’t sell during 2022 or 2023 despite all the noise. inflation, rate hikes, fed panic, whatever. everyone was yelling recession but my signal stayed quiet. and that told me those pullbacks weren’t the real deal. and they weren’t.

actually thought trump coming back into the picture might throw the model off. figured maybe the policy shifts or volatility might break it somehow. but no, if anything it’s proving the signal right. it’s not about politics. it’s just the structure underneath everything that’s starting to crack again.

the signal triggered back in late december. and now here we are, april 4th, and it’s fully live. i think the downturn is just getting started. based on the timing of previous signals i expect this could run from now through mid 2026, maybe even early 2027. this doesn’t look like a dip. it looks like the beginning of a full deleveraging cycle just like the ones that followed every other time this flashed.

holding spy puts for 2026 at the 330 strike and others depending on the premium . i’ve also got long dated puts on carvana and arkk and a bunch of other bloated growth names. all puts and sqqq montly calls. will post the positions if needed, i’m only day trading in this environment, with the occasional swing call when something really lines up. i’m not out here dumping everything or screaming the world is ending. just being realistic. if this model keeps doing what it’s always done, then it’s probably smart to be looking at downside protection right now. puts, hedges, whatever works for you.

for the chart itself, it’s not a single model. it’s pretty much a blend of macro indicators i’ve followed over time (few years now) and how i’ve come to piece them together. i’ve got an econ background, so naturally i’ve built my own view on how certain data fits. nothing complex or dramatic. just patterns that tend to show up before major cycles turn. how it’s put together is still interpretation at the end of the day, and i get not everyone will see it the same way. but it’s showing the same alignment now that’s been there before bigger moves in the past.

the chart’s themselves are based mostly on core economic indicators like liquidity, credit spreads, forward earnings, all the stuff that usually starts shifting before the actual cracks show up. the yield curve stayed inverted all the way through late 2024, which was the longest inversion since 1929, and every major downturn since the 50s followed that same setup. credit spreads started widening again toward the end of 2024, hit the highest in over six months, same thing we saw before 2000, 2008, and 2020. the ISM manufacturing index was under 50 for 26 months straight by december 2024, longest streak ever in the data. unemployment also started to turn, went up about half a percent from the cycle low, which triggered the sahm rule, and that one’s never missed a recession. all four of these flipped again in late 2024 but i incorporate more views of course, same as they did before every major breakdown in the last 25 years. some of the metrics are forward-looking or projected, in such I expect the fed to cut to near zero around early 27’. most of this is also relying on intuition from studying econ and tracking this stuff for a while .

not here to call tops or stir panic just sharing what i’m seeing based on how this has lined up in the past. trade safe out there.

(also posted this on other subs and got replies saying iust showed up out of nowhere and i dont ever talk about investing on reddit etc. not every post is tied to this signal, but if you check my history you’ll see, i just don’t post unless i feel like something actually matters.)

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1i4ifs3/comment/m7vgzel/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1jh9rzm/comment/mj5low0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1i5wk8e/comment/m89k9ua/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1i3oahu/comment/m7rndx6/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button


r/economy 4h ago

Why would a musician join OnlyFans? Because making a living is only getting harder

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0 Upvotes

r/economy 4h ago

We need to start selling VR head sets with computers

0 Upvotes

I want live streaming websites to evolve that you watch them in VR but in order to have that, first we will need wide spread ownership of VR. The VR headset needs to be seen as important as speakers, mouse and keyboard.

I guess a stream could have a normal viewing mode and a VR stream mode, so you could still view it without a headset, but this is a way to level up these spaces. videos that are recorded for a 3d dimensional viewing, 3d dimensional video stream.

Especially if a person is using a character model in a virtual space.

That's a job we could have people doing, selling VR sets. People getting a return for selling VR headsets. Selling them at conventions, through people they know/word of mouth, on their social pages, or even door to door.


r/economy 6h ago

Alternative payment systems are thriving in emerging countries like Brazil and India

0 Upvotes

According to the Economist: "Pix was not the first instant-payment method promoted by a central bank in an emerging country. That prize goes to India’s Unified Payments Interface (upi), which was launched in 2016. CoDi, Mexico’s version of Pix, got going in 2019. Yet Pix has been adopted much faster than either upi or CoDi. Other countries are following Brazil’s lead. In February Colombia introduced an instant-payment system, developed in partnership with one of the fintech companies that worked on Pix."

I believe credit cards and debit cards charge high fees to sellers, which other payment systems don't. Whatever the costs are, alternative payment systems are generally much cheaper, than debit or credit cards. Contacless payment systems, using smartphones, can be used with a phone, and an identifier like an id, phone number, or a QR code etc. Credit cards are no longer necessary. You only need a bank account and a smartphone.

I have a credit card, but I only use it to make large purchases and then make regular full payments, to improve my credit rating. So if I need to borrow, I can, and at low interest rates. But I don't use credit cards to borrow as the interest rates are too high. Don't let banks and credit card companies take advantage of you.

I am using the UPI system in India. I believe payment systems in USA charge high fees, even PayPal.

Reference: The Economist