Absence of trust is infectuous.

Lead Lines:

Germany is considering removing an enormous stockpile of gold from a vault in New York over worries about Donald Trump’s unpredictable policies.

For decades, Berlin has stashed 1,200 tons of its famous gold reserves, the second largest on the planet after those of the United States, in a vault deep underground at the US Federal Reserve in Manhattan.

Now, senior figures from the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, which is set to lead the next German government, have discussed removing it from New York because of concerns that Washington is no longer a reliable partner, the Bild newspaper has reported.

If I were a manufacturer outside the US, the tariffs would potentially be ruinous for me, so I'm going to want to look for ways to make a deal with Trump. I'd happily announce I'll invest millions or billions in the US if that's what it takes for Trump to give me an exception, but then I'd go as slowly as possible building the actual factories so I spend as little as possible, hoping I never actually have to spend the money. "Still planning". "Complicated to build such an advanced factory!". Etc. I’d be especially careful since I don’t know how long the tariffs will last, so I don’t actually want to make a big investment in the US that may eventually be useless.

I’d also be very careful never to criticize Trump or the government since Trump has shown how quickly he turns on people. So everyone gets what they want…except the American people.

• Trump gets a “loyal” business leader who will say and do what Trump wants
• Trump gets a big announcement that he “won” huge investments
• Business gets to continue making money. Maybe they’re not happy they had to do that, but they’ll see it as a cost of business. I’ll probably also raise my prices a bit since everything is getting more expensive, so I’ll make even more money. Trump may even drive some of my competition out of business!

Unfortunately the American people get higher prices and fewer choices. So don't get too excited if we hear a bunch of investment announcements. I'll believe it when I see the factory.

For information, it's next to 40% of its stock of gold!!!

The most popular theory I’ve seen is just crash everything, buy low, sell back at normal levels, and maybe short first to make money both ways. Couldn’t he just do this on a smaller, more subtle scale a bunch of times over the course of his presidency for the same result? I don’t think this adds up. My favorite explanation comes from a comment I read recently. Essentially, economy crashes —> civil unrest —> martial law —> coveted third term/more power. Or, economy crashes —> trump blames an ethnicity or country (Hitler style) —> we go to war —> same result. The thing he wants most is to have the biggest possible amount of power, until he dies. What’s your explanation?

EDIT: Thanks for all the comments. I can’t believe I forgot the Russian asset/agent one — probably the best. Also the idea of him being able to control businesses and crush anyone in his way seems very trump-like. Probably power or russia. Maybe both…

This will have economic implications on America. See today's market.

I genuinely don't understand. How do is it better that a country accrue debt, because they get 5% (whatever) on the interest of investing in GDP (1.2%.. think atm).. I mean I understand... take the 5% right... but it's insane that a whole country produces less wealth than a single rich individual. Is there anyone fighting this?