r/investing • u/waitbutwhycc • 2d ago

Most Predictable Drop of All Time

I posted here right after the first crash in February “Don’t buy the dip, this is more 1929 vibes than 2001.” In response I got almost 100 replies telling me not to time the market, before it got removed by mods for being a “question” (it was not).

Literally all Trump is doing is exactly what he promised on the campaign. And virtually every economist knew it would cause a recession. Even after the crash yesterday he doubled down, saying he might add tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals too. He is simply trying to remove us from global markets, and it’s working!

Buy the dip once people start actually pushing back against Trump - no real reason to buy before that point.

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u/80732807043158837 2d ago edited 2d ago

ITT whole lotta yapping from bagholders

OP: “I made a win”

Thread: “but you didn’t win bigger so you’re wrong and that makes me feel better”

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u/Budgetweeniessuck 2d ago

17 years of a bull market backstopped by the fed policies.

People are now realizing that things don't always go up.

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u/DefiantFcker 2d ago

Yeah, sometimes a total moron comes in and decides to destroy the global economy to own the libs.

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u/Bluepass11 2d ago

things don’t always go up

It’s been literally two days lol. Let’s see where we’re at in ten years

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u/Vanman04 2d ago

Ten years to get your money back will feel like a win?

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u/stupid_smart_ape 2d ago

Our money was already depreciating... so we took the risk to invest in other forms of value

Even if all your money was sitting in a bank account somewhere it was 100% depreciating in value, so it's a lose in that situation

I think it HURTS more to be able to say "omg I had x more dollars just two days ago and the markets fucked up"

But reality is harsher and even if we can't feel the pain the world is crushing our buying power slowly but surely

Anyway. Even amidst all this I'm not sure what to do -- do I pull out of stocks right now? If so then what?

I'm not sure what I would rotate into -- bonds? gold? bitcoin?

Although I'm less happy about my bets, I still would keep my stocks instead. And meanwhile focus on other things so that I don't lose my head and do something regarded like selling at a massive loss when the investments are solid.

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u/Bluepass11 2d ago

I think it’ll be faster than that, but I also just think of stocks being in sale during those times. I don’t mind if the market goes down for a long period of time because I’ll be buying throughout it

In any case, the original comment I was responding to was acting, as if what’s happened the last two days means that the stock market doesn’t always go up.

When do you think the stock market will go up from where we were a few days ago for a sustained period of time? Or do you think we won’t get there again?

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u/Vanman04 1d ago

I don't have any doubt there will be a bottom. At some point it will climb again.

If you are asking when I think we will hit where we were two days ago again. I don't know.

What I do know is I don't see any real strength or positive momentum anywhere at the moment. Quite the opposite.

I think we are just getting started for a while here.

I think a lot of people are balancing on the edge right now. I think that's why Trump got elected in the first place. They are desperate to try anything to step back from that ledge and he promised he would do it.

COVID screwed the world up and I think we have been doing our best to kick the can down the road ever since.

These teriffs are going to push a lot of people off that ledge I think and that is going to cause a vicious cycle of lower consumer spending followed by layoffs followed by lower consumer spending etc etc.

I think this was coming anyway but not inevitable. I think these teriffs will jump start it.

How long will that continue? I have no idea but I suspect even if the teriffs were dropped tomorrow a lot of damage has already been done. Trade is going to be different going forward we have cut ourselves out of a lot of it and getting all of it back may never happen.6y

No idea how long it will take to shake out but we just had the end of a quarter and it wasn't great. Next quarter will be worse.

I think next week Europe and other countries will likely announce their retaliation teriffs and the market will likely sink again.

This isn't good for anyone in the world the whole world economy is going to feel this for a while I think..

No idea where the bottom will be but I don't think the recovery will be quick.

My bet we won't see where we were a couple days ago again for at least two years with the potential for it to be much longer.

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u/Budgetweeniessuck 2d ago

Did you know that if you bought the NASDAQ at the peak of the market then you would have not made any money in the next 10 years.

There's nothing wrong with taking profits and moving to risk free returns while the market adjusts.

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u/littylikeatit 2d ago

Yeah, these backhanded comments are cringe. There’s a difference between selling your portfolio and risking your livelihood to put all your money into puts. They will never get it

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u/80732807043158837 2d ago

And to that end, I have way more respect for the bulls getting slaughtered on their call positions than any of these sour-grape grumblers. We're seeing VIX repeatedly hitting >20 and people are still fishing in the storm.

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u/Puk3s 2d ago

Why? Also can't someone be both?