r/investing • u/waitbutwhycc • 2d ago

Most Predictable Drop of All Time

I posted here right after the first crash in February “Don’t buy the dip, this is more 1929 vibes than 2001.” In response I got almost 100 replies telling me not to time the market, before it got removed by mods for being a “question” (it was not).

Literally all Trump is doing is exactly what he promised on the campaign. And virtually every economist knew it would cause a recession. Even after the crash yesterday he doubled down, saying he might add tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals too. He is simply trying to remove us from global markets, and it’s working!

Buy the dip once people start actually pushing back against Trump - no real reason to buy before that point.

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u/rco8786 2d ago

We're a long way from the bottom IMO. It'll be multiple quarters of absolute shit earnings reports and terrible guidance. It's not good.

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u/Scaryclouds 2d ago

Agreed… but Trump is so chaotic, that it wouldn’t surprise me if he totally folded on the tariff stuff by end of next week, and by June, because so much of bullshit will have happened from his administration, that we (the market) will have all but forgotten about this tariff non-sense. 

Not trying to say it will happen, or even likely to happen, just that’s the particular issue Trump represents. Whereas any other administration would go a deliberative process, have a clear and understandable goal, and put out trial balloons to get a sense as to how others would react… Trump just springs massive tariffs on the entire world with little warning and unclear goals in mind. And they could go away just as quickly as they were implemented because some countries “made concessions” or Trump received so much domestic blowback he folded.

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u/cafedude 2d ago

but Trump is so chaotic, that it wouldn’t surprise me if he totally folded on the tariff stuff by end of next week, and by June

Fool me once. Chaotic is not good for markets. Even if he folds tomorrow - sure the markets would recover a good bit of their losses, but investors would still be wary, and rightly so. If he folds then it would just be a slower descent but we'd eventually end up in about the same place.