r/investing • u/waitbutwhycc • 2d ago

Most Predictable Drop of All Time

I posted here right after the first crash in February “Don’t buy the dip, this is more 1929 vibes than 2001.” In response I got almost 100 replies telling me not to time the market, before it got removed by mods for being a “question” (it was not).

Literally all Trump is doing is exactly what he promised on the campaign. And virtually every economist knew it would cause a recession. Even after the crash yesterday he doubled down, saying he might add tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals too. He is simply trying to remove us from global markets, and it’s working!

Buy the dip once people start actually pushing back against Trump - no real reason to buy before that point.

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u/GetCashQuitJob 2d ago

When a stupid person tells you for 25 years that he wants to do something stupid, and then gets the power to do it with no guardrails, you believe him. I moved to gold in early March.

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u/stupid_smart_ape 2d ago

That's awesome. I didn't see the signs as clearly this time. After all, I'm kind of desensitized to the dumb shit Trump says because I had to block it out the first four years he was in office and then the next four he also kept saying dumb shit... so fuck me I didn't know he would go all kamikaze on us

Well per usual he's definitely making headlines... I suppose that's kind of refreshing in a way (I know for the economy no news is good news but... maybe this jolts some of the sleeping idiots in Congress awake and there's some backlash to his regarded theories? Maybe Nancy Pelosi comes back cuz she's tired of seeing red in her portfolio? I have no idea how this works but if you do something this rash and stupid and receive immediate negative feedback, would there possibly be some good that comes out of this?)

I'm nearly a perma-bull on the US market. Not because I believe it's justified but because the world order has propped the USA up and we are (or perhaps were) top dog in several dimensions (military? economically?)

I have been saying however that the empire will fall... eventually. I have no idea when and I'm not sure if this is the start or just another part of it or what... but yeah it can't last. Everyone rots from complacency and entitlement when they're at the top too long.

BUT NOW WHAT? It's one thing to say the market's going to crash. It's another thing entirely to say GOLD is the answer to this... is it really? Gold is... imo not quite the protection against inflation that it's touted to be. There's a shitload of price manipulation... I'm not sure about it. I do have some but it's not a lot.

And bitcoin? Holy another bag of questionmarks.

Real estate?

I think at this point all the major asset classes I have access to are similarly inflated and similarly risky. So I'm just diversifying into all of them, and then focusing on shit like friends and family during these turbulent times

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u/GetCashQuitJob 2d ago

I'm not thrilled with being in gold. It doesn't pay dividends and it doesn't necessarily protect against inflation. It does seem to offer some protection against a weaker dollar though, which was my thinking.

I just want to go back to VOO and chill, but all the "this time actually IS different" alarm bells were blaring.

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u/weasler7 2d ago edited 2d ago

I did something similar in early march, I also bought a few OTM puts in QQQ and SPY to hedge those associated positions.

For my 401k, I increased the gold allocation by ~10%, EM by 5%, Ex-US developed by 5%, and bonds by 3ish%. Decreased small cap allocation.

It still hurts and I didn't know Trump was gonna go full regard. It's still hard to predict whether he's gonna sink the US or let up.

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u/VilleAroo 2d ago

Ha, me and you think alike. I've been saying over and over "When a stupid person tells you they're going to do something stupid, believe them." I'm trying to make Fetch a thing.