Most Predictable Drop of All Time

[u/waitbutwhycc]

I posted here right after the first crash in February “Don’t buy the dip, this is more 1929 vibes than 2001.” In response I got almost 100 replies telling me not to time the market, before it got removed by mods for being a “question” (it was not).

Literally all Trump is doing is exactly what he promised on the campaign. And virtually every economist knew it would cause a recession. Even after the crash yesterday he doubled down, saying he might add tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals too. He is simply trying to remove us from global markets, and it’s working!

Buy the dip once people start actually pushing back against Trump - no real reason to buy before that point.

[u/Scaryclouds]

There will be longterm ramifications for all this even if Trump folds tomorrow, you’re 100% right. 

However the scale of the longterm ramifications will be substantially different if Trump folds tomorrow, versus these tariffs are more or less still in place in June or later. 

Businesses and countries don’t necessarily want to have to rethink trade, supply lines, markets. And the power for returning to status quo would be very powerful if that option is provided. 

But again, you’re right countries and businesses will be developing contingencies/pursuing alternatives now that US has become an unreliable partner/actor. 

The only way that bell (maybe) gets unrung, is if Trump and Vance are impeached and removed from office, and Johnson (or I guess more likely in this scenario Hakeem Jeffries) upon assuming the office makes clear the intent to return to normalcy. Needless to say, I don’t see that scenario playing out. 

[u/Dirks_Knee → u/Scaryclouds]

We don't need to guess. Last trump term in response to tariffs on Chinese goods, they in turn shifted soy bean primary purchasing from US to Brazil. To this day Brazil is their primary market only trading with the US when Brazil can't meet their needs. Global trade demands stability. If trump lifted the tariffs tomorrow, the threat they'd be there again a day later is strong enough to continue to try and bypass the US for any critical trade. Once trump is gone, too late. They now have a stabile trading partner and don't have to worry every 4 years that a new version of trump might take office.

[u/Manoj109 → u/Dirks_Knee]

Exactly. Trade and diplomacy is built on trust and long-term stability. Trump is offering the opposite and he is too stupid to see.

[u/Mad-Mel → u/Manoj109]

Trump is offering the opposite and he is too stupid to see

The American voter is offering to repeat this over and over and cannot be trusted. Hence, other nations are going to look for new partners and minimise their reliance on US trade. This is not a blip, this is the new normal.

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