r/investing • u/AutoModerator • 3d ago
Daily Discussion Daily General Discussion and Advice Thread - April 05, 2025
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u/21092604 3d ago
I apologize for what I am certain will be a stupid question. Can someone explain why gold prices are rising but the share price of IAUM is dropping?
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u/kiwimancy 3d ago
Your premise is incorrect. Gold and IAUM are both up in the last months and down in the past few days.
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u/21092604 3d ago
I’m trying to figure out the best phrasing for my follow-up. Would it be reasonably accurate to say that the ETF lags (not really what I mean) or flattens somewhat the volatility (closer to what I want to express) of the actual commodity price? Example: reading “gold surges!” and looking at a price chart, but then noticing that IAUM had no surge? Is it the nature of the ETF that it would have a “flatter” (I’m struggling to find the right word) chart even if the overall tracking matches?
If none of what I’m asking makes sense, let me know & I will delete & attempt to rethink/rephrase.
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u/kiwimancy 3d ago
No, it holds gold and trades at NAV due to being an open end fund. No difference in performance besides the management fee
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u/21092604 3d ago
Thank you. I’m trying to overlay the LBMA gold chart onto the IAUM chart for visual reassurance but it exceeds my technical capabilities at the moment.
I’ll take your word on just being wrong and take some time to reflect.
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u/BestJersey_WorstName 3d ago
It could be re-allocation. Asset classes become highly correlated during market down turns and sell offs. Even assets that have little in common.
There's more to commodity trading than just the spot price of the commodity. Extraction, storage, and the net position of cash flowing in or out.
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u/Gintian 3d ago
What kind of investments would be recession proof?
Should I be thinking about possible hyper inflation?
Am I being dramatic?
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u/Agile-Slide1350 3d ago
People often flock to “safe havens” like gold, utilities, bonds, or dividend aristocrats during uncertain times, but I think the better long-term strategy is diversification even in a recession or concern for hyperinflation. If you’re invested in something like VOO (which tracks the S&P 500) and it doesn’t recover, we’d likely have much bigger problems as a country. Selling broad exposure to buy into something like gold or a single sector could increase your risk by making you less diversified. So while it’s fine to hedge a little, don’t underestimate the strength of staying broadly invested. You can sleep well at night invested in VOO if you don’t need the money for a while.
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3d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/sakisgw3 3d ago
Maybe, but you are ignoring the effect on the real economy his policies will have. Recession at 60%, inflation, unemployment etc. Lower middle class is cooked anyways if it doesn't up skill for the service economy.
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u/kiwimancy 3d ago
I'm confused by this phrase 'no stocks outside 401k'. If you hold stocks in your 401k, you still hold stocks, do you not?
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u/David0739 3d ago
Hello reddit,
New investor here, the past few weeks investing has been on my mind especially the past few days since how the economic state that the U.S is in & hearing all over the news of stock market never been this low since 2008 housing crisis, I constantly hear from people saying they regret not investing during that time & go on about how rich they could’ve been.. I personally dont wanna be one to say I missed out on a opportunity like we have now
Anyways, thats besides the point i’ve been on the internet & videos and non seem to teach one how to read the stock market just the basics on how to invest. But How am I suppose to invest If i dont know how to read the market? If anyone has advice please let me know.
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u/buried_lede 3d ago
Are TIPS a good option right now? I would use a TIPS etf
Also, any opinions on how high the VIX might go and how many times in the coming months/years?
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u/rebeccazone 3d ago
What is the best investment now?
Apple?
VOO?
VTI?
Tesla (for some freak surge)?
Ford?
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u/BestJersey_WorstName 3d ago
The Ford F150 is 30% American. I don't think they are a winner during a high tariff environment. Any significant onshoring won't be in Michigan.
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u/ifyouwannabemyloverr 3d ago
I’m 19 looking for some advice.
Overall I’m down 15% but FSELX is down 33% and FBGRX is down 18% individually. Is that really bad and unrecoverable? Should I sell at a loss and buy more of when S&P dips more?
Please be nice! I know I’m kinda dumb.
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u/BestJersey_WorstName 3d ago
At 19, just learn.
Your job is your biggest source of future funds. You could be -50% and unless you were a child actor, trust fund baby, or pro athlete the losses would dwarf the money you make simply working at your job.
An exercise could be to calculate your overall stock beta. If you have a high beta and can't tolerate a drop like this, then that means your tolerance for risk is not as high as you thought it was.
Also re-allocation shouldnt be viewed as selling at a loss. It is re-allocation.
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u/BestJersey_WorstName 3d ago
I received a 90,000 cash inheritance in January and it is sitting in a promotional savings account paying 4% through June. Thank you grandpa for having the foresight to sell I'm January and give a living inheritance instead of going over the cliff.
I'm thinking through the mechanics of slowly withdrawing cash from the account, transferring to a brokerage account at 0%, and then investing it.
Does anybody have experience moving a large sum of cash into the market?
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u/Independent-Drive-32 3d ago
No one's going to have a perfect answer for you, but here's food for thought -- the bottom for stocks in the 2007 financial crisis was in March 2009, or about 1.5 years after the start. (That's much earlier than many people retrospectively might have thought!) Conceivably what we're all going through now could take a longer period of time, given that the effects of the tariffs will probably slowly move their way through the global system. But let's say you invest $300 per week in an index fund like VT (which has both US and world exposure). You'd be fully invested only after more than 5 years, meaning you'd have consistently bought through the price drop and likely continued to buy at low prices as stocks were rising. If I were you, I'd do something like that, with the exact weekly amount determined by how risky you would like to be.
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u/aligatorstew 3d ago
I have a large position in VGIAX which is an actively managed account that is very tax inefficient that I would like to get out of. With the downturn, my position is mostly even making the capital gains I'd pay to sell mostly negligible. Is it wise to sell now, and re-buy into something more tax efficient (either VTI or VOO)? Or is this essentially just rationalizing a reason to sell low?
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u/broodkiller 3d ago
Hi all, recently moved to California and decided to do some tax optimization on my savings, but wanted to ask if my thinking and math are correct, since I'm relatively new at this.
Here are my hypothetical scenarios for a 1Y $10k investment using Fidelity, as of today's yields:
1/ Put money in my HYSA - earn 3.7%, pay 24% fed and 9.3% state, keep $246.79 (=370-88.8-34.41).
2/ Buy SPAXX - earn 4.65%, pay 24% fed and 9.3% state, keep $310 (=465-111.6-43.245)
2/ Buy FDLXX - earn 4.63%, pay 24% fed and 0.93% state (thanks to 90% SALT exemption), keep $347.58 (=463-111.12-4.3**)**.
3/ Buy FABXX (CA muni fund) - earn 2.59%, pay 0% fed and 0% state, keep $259 (=259-0-0).
4/ Buy 1Y Tbills - earn 3.94%, pay 24% fed, 0% state, keep $299.44 (=394-94.56-0)
5/ Buy 1Y CD - earn 4.1%, pay 24% fed and 9.3% state, keep $273.47 (=410-98.4-38.13)
Is moving my money to FDLXX simply the best option, as the math suggests? Am I missing something, or another viable alternative?
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u/s_rdt738 3d ago
hi, should i invest more in stocks/what stocks?
the only stocks i have are VOO, MGK and VTI. i feel like it’s very general/ bland and i don’t have much money invested into it (around $890).
i have the most money in VOO at 1.006 shares, VTI at 0.349 shares and MGK 0.158 shares.
wanted to add that i’ve lost $108, it’s not a big hit compared to others but i’ve only been investing for a few months so it’s completely new to me. i don’t have any gains 😞
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u/Coco_8306 3d ago
Hi all - it's April 2025 and we invested into RADD Diversified in 2023. No luck in withdrawing. I know there are many others in a similar situation.
Has anyone had ANY luck getting their money back? Not even talking about gains, but anything at all?
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u/oh-em-jizzles 3d ago
Hi!
Have been maxing out 401k and IRA, dabbled in individual stocks which i will not be doing any more, have parked most of the rest of my money in FDLXX. chose it because i live in NY so higher income tax and it's like 98% state tax exempt
I'm planning on sitting on this money for a long time.
Would it make more sense for me to move it to SGOV instead? for reference this would be for about 50k right now. my income would be taxed at about 6% rate on a state level (income over 100k but lower than 150k)
to my understanding SGOV still has the state tax benefits of FDLXX while having higher yield, with the downside being it would take longer to make the money liquid if i needed it?
any advice appreciated! thanks
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u/Red_Bullion 2d ago edited 2d ago
You got it right. They're essentially the same except FDLXX has the benefit of acting like cash. You can withdraw from it automatically, they'll even send you a debit card for it. SGOV you need to sell and wait for the funds to clear, like a stock. FDLXX charges a higher fee for the convenience, so the yield you receive is lower. If you don't need the funds completely liquid then SGOV is a good choice. Or you may want to have some funds in FDLXX, enough to buy a cheap car or something, and the rest in SGOV.
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u/throwawayyaccount66 3d ago
So I recently started my first job ever and I have to set up my 403b. I'm new to investing but I'm aware of some of the common stocks, index funds and whatnot that people usually invest in. Sadly, my employer 403b doesn't have most of those options. The only options I recognize and am interested in investing in is a 2065 TDF, VSMPX, and FTIHX. I was wondering if it would be wisest to invest in just the TDF or if I should invest in the other stuff as well and what percentage? I also have a ROTH IRA with nothing in yet but plan to do more aggressive investing there eventually. Any advice appreciated. Thanks in advance!
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u/Red_Bullion 2d ago
TDF is a great option, probably the best option for most people. VSMPX is VTI and FTIHX is VXUS, so these are also great. If you don't want bonds yet (which is reasonable given your age) then 65% VSMPX and 35% FTIHX is essentially the same as a TDF but without bonds.
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u/throwawayyaccount66 2d ago
Is there any other reason I should not want bonds yet besides it being more conservative? Also, if VSMPX is VTI and FTIHX is VXUS, does that mean it'll be redundant to choose all 3 options because TDF will have both VTI and VXUS anyway? Thanks!
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u/Red_Bullion 2d ago edited 2d ago
Bonds protect against market downturns but also don't grow as much as stocks. So having less bonds means higher risk and higher short term volatility but a higher expected return. If you're 20 years old or something your investing horizon is 40+ years so downturns don't matter, you have time to weather any short term market volatility. If you're 60 years old and retiring soon then a massive downturn could be disastrous. So you hold lots of bonds to protect against that.
A TDF automatically adds more and more bonds to your portfolio as you get closer to your retirement date. This is great because it means you don't have to know or think about anything. Just put money in there and don't even look at it for 40 years, and you'll be rich.
However, the bond allocation of a TDF is very conservative. For example at age 20 it will have you 10% in bonds. This lowers your expected return. The reason a TDF is conservative in bond allocation is because it's targeted at the lowest common denominator. It doesn't want people to freak out and sell during market volatility. But if you can handle it mentally then not having any bonds in your 20s will make you richer in the long term. So there's an argument for not doing a TDF when you're young, and either switching to it in your 30's or 40's, or just figuring out how bonds work on your own and buying them yourself to match your personal risk tolerance.
I would not recommend buying all three. Either go 100% TDF or 65% VSMPX/ 35% FTIHX. It's up to you whether you want to "set it and forget it" with the TDF or take on higher risk for higher returns by setting your own bond allocation (which for your 20's could very well be 0%). There is likely a bond fund in the 401k that you can use to add bonds when you want them.
It's worth mentioning that currently the global market cap sits at 65% US and 35% international. This will change as the years go by. So if you do go with VSMPX/FTIHX then you should choose a date once a year when you check the global market cap and rebalance your percentages accordingly.
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u/throwawayyaccount66 2d ago
Thank you so much for this! I think I'll make my 403b 100% TDF and invest in a 3 fund profile for my ROTH IRA once I get money in.
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u/Joho2070 3d ago
Newbie looking for advice
Hi all, I'm a total noob to all this. I've been researching jumping into day trading... But with the market being so shit right now, is it a good time to buy low and try and sell high?
I have 70k in my bank, and a credit card with a 60k limit. Plus another small bank account with 3k. I was thinking of starting day trading with the 3k account.
I know I have lots to learn, so I will open a paper trading account for about 6 months to learn (this is what I have read)
Any advice would be welcomed, and sorry if I got any terminology wrong, as I said, I'm completely new
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u/Joho2070 3d ago
Just so everyone is aware... I'm not looking to get rich (but that would be nice) I'm just looking to make some money so I can quit one of my 3 jobs.. I'm drowning here
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u/Red_Bullion 2d ago edited 2d ago
Day trading isn't real. The only people who do it successfully have a room full of guys with math PHDs, and even most people who have that still fail. Take 6 months of expenses and put it in a HYSA or MMF as an emergency fund. Put everything else in a target date fund, or VT if you're young and don't feel you need bonds yet. Preferably in tax sheltered retirement accounts.
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u/RobertFKennedy 3d ago
If 🥭is gonna reverse tariffs and this is all a heist, please let it sell off another 2 days or after another -10% SPX so we can load more LEAPS before the reversal of a century
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u/Ilooklikejosuke 3d ago
My dad is giving me 100$ dollars a month to trade. He and I don't mind losing that money, he just wants me to learn to manage cash because he grew up in a soviet regime so he says he is not flexible enough for that and wishes I could learn. I don't know anything about investing what should I do. I started putting half of the money in S%P and other half I do hand-picked stocks so I can see if I do better than the market. I know market is cooked right now, but I think it will bounce back eventually. If I could earn enough for some shoes that would be great. Please help me.
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u/Iiiifoundsweetroad 3d ago
So should I pause my 401k contributions??
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u/BestJersey_WorstName 3d ago
No. Even if you lose 99% of next week contribution, you are still receiving a company match worth of shares.
The market will be higher 30 years from now. If it won't be then you wouldn't be retiring anyway -- you'd be dead in the apocalypse.
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u/Weak_Ad3665 3d ago
18 years old - Denmark. Currently I have 7000 dollars to invest, and each month I will add 300 dollars. Long time horizon (30-40 years). I am risk averse and want to see a stable growth rather than taking big chances.