r/stocks • u/Chrissylumpy21 • 2d ago

Crystal Ball Post Is Black Monday Incoming?

So much fear in the markets and this time really feels different. All the Mag7 stocks are so hit by the tariffs our iPhones will probably cost $5,000 soon and as the world slows, people will use Amazon less, advertise less on FB/IG. No one is buying Tesla anymore. Who needs anymore AI chips, yet AI is decreasing Google searches.

I fear the world is realizing it all this weekend. Or is it just me that sky appears to be falling?

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u/PontificatinPlatypus 2d ago

It'll rally 20-30 points Monday, and then lose 3000 on Tuesday.

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u/I-STATE-FACTS 2d ago

Yea I’m thinking slightly green monday followed by more carnage.

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u/stanpan 2d ago

I feel like the weekend doom will carryover into Monday, it’s probably still gonna continue to drop

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u/I-STATE-FACTS 2d ago

Very possible

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u/galactojack 2d ago

Scariest straight down drop since covid 2020, maybe worse

With zero relief rally. Really not looking good. Sentiment obliterated

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u/hairy_chili_ring 1d ago

Could go up, could go down, could go sideways. Uncertainty at an all time high.

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u/hitoq 2d ago

91 out of 95 Friday lows in history have been taken lower on the following Monday. Book it.

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u/KazOmnipotent 2d ago

Where’d you find that? Very interesting, glad I followed this thread further lol

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u/Top_Cranberry_3254 1d ago

Yes at close. At open, bet there will be a small rally for a couple of hours first to get retailers' liquidation to buy back in before the next plummet.

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u/Boss1010 1d ago

Source?

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u/SuperNewk 1d ago

Ya that close was insane, no fear amongst bears. It will hurt us longs worse falling down another 5% we simply can’t get out.

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u/MaesterHannibal 20h ago

But not by a lot, I reckon. Probably 1-2% down, then maybe slightly green tuesday, and slightly red rest of the week, provided Trump doesn’t do anything (highly unlikely)

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u/hotinmyigloo 2d ago

I'm thinking carnage followed by carnage

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u/I-STATE-FACTS 2d ago

Maybe another Black Monday! The week prior looked pretty similar then too.

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u/motorbikler 1d ago

But what about second carnage?

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u/hotinmyigloo 1d ago

And carnage at elevensies?

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u/Fluffy_Monk777 1d ago

Either way Monday or Tuesday will probably be pretty red.

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u/iq-pak 1d ago

I feel like it the up and down will happen on Monday. Start up and then come down during the day.

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u/Low-Environment4209 1d ago

I would tend to agree that, short term, baring any further news, we should see some calm/a slight and fragile reversal begining of the week. Especially if the budget measure passes etc. nothing goes straight down forever. Wouldn’t rule out a ful 1929 scenario though, but think it’s still unlikely. At the very least I’m hoping futures open slightly up tomorrow.

Should the bounce happen, it will likely lead to further de-levering/risking off. I don’t see anything other than a total policy reversal fixing the market. That seems even more unlikely.

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u/Ihop_Sucks 2d ago

Just curious what you are basing that on?

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u/I-STATE-FACTS 2d ago

Trump making some panic reversals during the weekend as he has before.

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u/Ihop_Sucks 1d ago

Appreciate your answer! I asked AI what the chances are of Trump backing down. This will be interesting. (Plan to play Monday volatility- my tolerance for loss is $1,000 so coming up with a plan that plays multiple scenarios)

The likelihood of President Donald Trump backing down from his current tariff policies seems low, given his consistent stance on trade reciprocity and his recent actions. Trump has emphasized that his policies will not change, reinforcing his commitment to using tariffs as a tool to address what he perceives as unfair trade practices by other countries 5. He has invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs, framing them as necessary for national and economic security 2. This approach is part of his broader agenda to reset U.S. trade relationships and protect American industries 5.

Key Factors Influencing Trump's Stance

Political and Economic Commitments

Trump has tied his tariff policies closely to his political platform, framing them as essential for rebuilding the U.S. economy and restoring national sovereignty 2 3. Given the political capital invested, backing down from these policies might be perceived as a retreat from his core campaign promises.

Economic Impact and Public Perception

While Trump asserts that his policies are working, many economists and analysts predict adverse economic consequences from the tariffs, such as increased prices for consumers and potential job losses 3 4. However, Trump's support base and his administration might view these tariffs as necessary for long-term economic benefits.

International Retaliation and Negotiation

Other countries, including China and the European Union, have responded to U.S. tariffs with retaliatory measures, escalating the trade war 4 5. Despite this, Trump has not indicated a willingness to reverse his policies, suggesting that he believes the pressure from these tariffs could lead other countries to adjust their trade practices more favorably for the U.S. 3 5.

Overall, Trump's public stance and past actions suggest a strong commitment to maintaining his tariff policies, even in the face of international retaliation and economic uncertainty.

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u/Ihop_Sucks 1d ago

I think more likely retail buys "dip" would cause green at open. He seems unbothered to act fast. We will see. He's meeting Netanyahu Monday.. i don't know that the weekend will bring much.