adp non-farm report just came out. Much higher non-farm employment than predicted. We are screwed in term of rate cut. High unemployment and high core inflation gave jpowell easy excuse for pause rate and wait and see.
We'll see what actually happens.
I mean... they printed money when COVID hit to keep the US spending.
If this sell off starts triggering massive buying of off shore stocks due to unease in US stocks... they gotta do something to keep investors in US stocks.
pre-covid fed is very differently than post covid fed. Before we had international trade and immigrant labor to export inflation and labor cost despite a decade of money printing.
Right now that mechanism of reduce inflation via foreign supplier is gone. The labor cost reduction via immigrant labor is also gone.
There is no longer natural competition mechanism to keep inflation down from the supply side. The fed have open excuse to control inflation from the demand side.
I'm hoping for a dovish fed, but seeing how they are just borderline bureaucratic that can be replace by a machine. I wouldn't count on it. Get your put ready
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u/DPMKIV 23h ago
It's called a FED bailout...
It theoretically should ease the free fall to prevent an all-out crash.