adp non-farm report just came out. Much higher non-farm employment than predicted. We are screwed in term of rate cut. High unemployment and high core inflation gave jpowell easy excuse for pause rate and wait and see.
We'll see what actually happens.
I mean... they printed money when COVID hit to keep the US spending.
If this sell off starts triggering massive buying of off shore stocks due to unease in US stocks... they gotta do something to keep investors in US stocks.
Not to be a doomsayer, but with rising inflation (again) due to tariffs, probable layoffs due to reduced demand on american goods due to tariffs and combine that with high interest to fight the self-induced inflation, people will default, a lot. Even domesctically produced goods will be hit with inflation due to potash tariffs.
I’m seeing in my unqualified crystal ball, a depression happening.
What the end goal if you print more money for a bail out just continue kicking the can down the road. It’s like we’re building a dam that gets weaker each renovation and gets more water behind it. The longer you keep repairing it with tape and sticks the bigger the flood will be when it collapses. Let pain hit when it is supposed to hit rather than pushing it to the next generation double
What's going to replace it, a BRICS currency? The Euro?
I'm not denying there's pressure on the Petro Dollar and there are strong efforts to create an alternative, but all those alternatives are laughable, even conaidering the upheaval at the moment.
Humans love creaming doom and gloom, but it almost never come to pass.
But seriously, in what word do middle eastern countries trade crude in Euros, or Western countries trade crude in a currency backed by China or Russia?
Even if they were open to it, it would take much longer than any of Trump's emergency provisions will last.
Dude's gone completely off the rails, but you're catastrophizing if you think that transition will happen any time soon. The long view on this is still fine. That can change, but right now we have no clue how things will shape up.
EDIT: If Inwas a betting man (and I am, this is WSB), I'd say a lot of this will be challeneged and over turned by courts. And, at that point, I think the Trump admin will see it as a relief and a way to get out of a very bad position they've put themselves in.
You make compelling points. Hard to say. The administration has really married themselves to tariffs. Admitting a mistake of this magnitude is worse than the Afghanistan pullout. But yeah, the most optimistic end to this is the admin gives up on it sooner than later.
LOL, this has been the line for 30 years (since the 90s inflationary period). If you call for the fall of Rome every day for 600 years you'll eventually be right.
Current debt is completely fine. 1.3x your income is not that high actually. A couple with a new mortgage can be at like 600% of their income in debt and still not even be sub-prime, if they have a good job (the USA is like the guy with the best job of all, normally)
It WON'T be if we print trillions and trillions of dollars instead of just repealing stupid tariffs etc. and no longer "have a good job" anymroe in a depression, etc. But as of November 2024 under normal procedures and business as usual, it was not a meaningful threat at all.
The issue we face is even if tarriffs are repealed, other countries are not just going to be so willing to just jump right back into trading with the US. They are looking to trade with other countries because they know the US can just flip back to trade wars in a matter of years. We may very well never see the level of relative economic prosperity (relative doing a lot of lifting here because a lot of people are poor as shit here still) that the US has ever again. The Great Depression and Recession were bad, but the US did not cut off trade partners world wide during those periods. This is going to do what I believe is irreversible damage.
everyone said this during covid prints and then during post 2008 QE and by all accounts JPow was landing the plane in insane crosswinds and we were so close while coping with the pain after all of us pointed and said it was impossible.. then this happens.
Jpow was doing a great job it sucks that he doesn’t get to close his tenure the way it could have gone. If he pulled off the soft landing it would’ve been incredible. Now we’ll never know
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u/CoughRock 1d ago
who's making these prediction for rate cut ? didn't jpowell explicitly said he's going to wait and see ?