r/CanadianConservative 10d ago

Opinion A commentary on polls

26 Upvotes

Hello friends,

The subreddit has been abuzz about polls, pollsters, aggregators, and speculation about them. Given that we are in election season, we are going to see a lot more of them. You need to know how to interpret them appropriately as well as understand how to differentiate between them.

We begin with top-line numbers which are the percentages we see at the top of the report/poll. It is these numbers that are usually reported and the numbers that are often used by aggregators. They are often the final product of the poll and in Canada are usually the sum of regional averages that have been broken down and weighed appropriately. They are often weighed for regional/geographic distribution so that they more accurately reflect the population. Speaking of weighing and averaging, regional/geographic breakdowns aren't the only demographics taken into consideration; pollsters try to ensure that other important socio/economic demographics and gender information is accurate to the Canadian average as well. Sample sizes are also important, as the smaller or larger a sample size is, the more or less weighing will need to be done.

Most pollsters and aggregators will include a breakdown of their results and methodologies in their reports.

So what are some important things to look out for when it comes time to reading and interpreting Canadian polls?

  • Regionals: If they are inaccurate, have small sample sizes, or seem off, it will impact the entire poll
  • House effect: Established pollsters will often have a bias toward one party
  • Accuracy: How right were they at predicting the results of previous elections?
  • Sample Sizes: How many people were actually polled?
  • Questions Asked: This one doesn't need an explanation other than saying that depending on how a question is worded it can yield different results. This is especially the case with contentious or controversial issues.

So in Canadian politics which regionals should we pay attention to?

  • Alberta: She's by far one of the most reliable to track. If the Tory numbers are off from the norm, we can usually take that poll with a grain of salt.
  • Québec: Highly volatile but only to a point. If the different pollsters have wildly different results or the results vary within too short of an interval, we know something is amiss. Underrepresentation of the BQ and overrepresentation of the NDP are often good tells for a wonky poll here.
  • Ontario: This is where we'll see more minute but gradual changes but usually we don't see it being a runaway for the LPC or CPC. If one of the two is too high, we can conclude there may be some doubt. The NDP is also at play here, if they are in a 3-way or too high, we also know there's something amiss maybe.

Between the 3 though, Alberta & Québec are the easiest to read to sus out wonky polls.

Please also take into consideration that every polling methodology has different means of questioning Canadians (phone, internet survey, etc) as well as different margins of error. Pay attention to these. The tighter the margin, the more confident the pollster is about it's accuracy.

Finally, I want to share a point on voter efficiency and the phenomenon known as the Shy Tory effect. Both are very important to take into consideration when reading and interpreting polls.

When it comes time to voter efficiency, the Liberals in Montréal and the BQ in general have the strongest voter efficiency, which translates to concentration of support in areas which then in turn to seats. This is why you can see the Conservatives leading or winning the plurality of the vote in top-line numbers but the LPC winning the most seats or the BQ taking +30-40 seats with 7-9% of the vote. It's because these votes are concentrated in certain locations and can also get just enough votes to win. What's more, the Conservatives often have very high numbers regionally that can pull the topline higher as well - example is the high leads in the prairies often mean that our topline numbers reflect the strength of our vote there and can over-estimate the national numbers.

As for the Shy-Tory effect, a lot of pollsters have a hard time accurately capturing the actual Tory voter numbers. Tories and soft-CPC voters are less willing to share their voting intentions, which means on election night sometimes the Tory vote would have been underestimated by as much as 3-5%.

Take these things into consideration whenever you read the polls and the aggregators. It is not all doom and gloom. Go deeper than looking at the topline.

Thank you!


r/CanadianConservative Apr 07 '23

Discussion A playbook for making change

20 Upvotes

Given the amount of posts/comments I see from people who want to see change in Canada, I decided I'd provide some information on ways you can actually make change.

Feel free to comment with additional suggestions.

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  1. Get involved with your local riding associations for both federal and provincial politics. You can generally email the contact us email for a political party and say you want to get involved with the riding association and they will put you in touch with those running it. This is a great way to meet like-minded people and actually contribute to making changes. Activities might include cold calling potential donors, fundraising events, door knocking, sign distribution, etc. If you want, you can even run within the riding association to become the MP/MPP or one of the other key positions like President or Financial Agent.
  2. Donate to the political parties and advocacy organizations you support. It really makes a difference. Money is a tool these parties use to promote their ideals, and they need resources. Bonus: You get tax deductions (for political donations) which reduce how much this actually costs you.
  3. Get involved in professional groups / union groups / parent associations / university or college groups / etc. These organizations typically have some sort of structure with elected positions, and items that can be voted on. Unfortunately, they tend to get dominated by the loudest 1% of people who typically lean far left and have nothing better to do so this becomes their life to satisfy their saviour complexes / hunger for power. A lot of people want regular people to run and get involved, but can't be bothered to do it themselves. For students, look at getting involved with your student unions and you'll get a crash course in dealing with extreme leftists.
  4. Vote! Especially in federal and provincial elections, but in other elections too. School board positions, trustees, municipal elections, student union elections, etc. Ensure far left extremists aren't getting voted into these positions where they can slowly corrupt everything.
  5. Opt-out of DEI activities as much as you can. If your employer, school, etc. asks you for your race/gender/etc. and there's an option for "prefer not to say" always choose that. If you're asked to add pronouns but it's not mandatory, don't. If your company holds optional training or events that promotes ideological concepts you disagree with, don't attend. If they have a DEI committee, consider joining and challenging their ideas (ex: if they have quotas for race, ask where they came up with the numbers, and what constitutes success, and how do they define race, and how do they avoid prejudice against other groups?). A lot of DEI activities are straight up anti-conservative, illogical, chase justice through injustice, and run by ideologically driven people, and they are typically completely unprepared for anyone actually challenging their ideas in a logical manner. Read up on Christopher Rufo's work on these subjects: https://christopherrufo.com/, especially on the ways the left plays language games to hide their true agenda.
  6. Learn the rules. For federal politics, you can visit https://elections.ca/. There are similar websites for the provinces as well (example: Ontario's site is https://www.elections.on.ca/en.html). You'd be surprised how few people actually understand how the administration of political groups works in Canada.
  7. Protest peacefully. When there are events held by conservative groups to protest, attend and support if you can. Just being there in person is enough, you don't have to go wild. Don't be turned off by the crazies that show up, that happens regardless of the protest and regardless of ideology. Be one of the sane ones who brings a reasonable message to the event simply by attending. Call out and disassociate from bad behaviour if possible (i.e. random Nazi guy at the trucker convoy protest).
  8. Vote with your wallet. If companies are supporting ideas you dislike, stop giving them your money. You can find alternatives for just about anything. Hit their bottom line to send a message.
  9. Vote with your feet. This one is much harder in practice, but if you live in a place that is beyond redemption, look at other cities/provinces where you can move to and make a change. Don't contribute to the tax base of a place that hates you if you can help it. Americans do this a lot because they have a lot more options much closer together, but it's still possible in Canada.

r/CanadianConservative 5h ago

Article Poilievre promises to fund 50,000 addictions recovery spaces

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54 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 7h ago

Video, podcast, etc. The reality of an unemployed in Toronto going to a job fair

53 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 7h ago

Social Media Post Carney this morning gets asked on how he feels about the recent articles on his father defending residential schools.

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35 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 51m ago

Social Media Post Pierre Poilievre at Penticton Rally announce he will ditch the WOKE passport Trudeau designed and bring back Terry Fox, our soldiers and national heritage.

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r/CanadianConservative 11h ago

Social Media Post Canada now has a record of refugees and asylum claimants: 457,285. We have thousands more in a processing backlog and many more will flee to Canada trying to avoid deportation from the US.

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61 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 7h ago

Social Media Post Man who barricaded himself in PARLIAMENT yesterday was a REPEAT OFFENDER

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26 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 11h ago

Social Media Post David Akin of Global News says Pierre Poilievre is a rockstar and if you go to one of his events you better go 3 hrs early.

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50 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 7h ago

Social Media Post Conservative candidate for Nepean, Barbara Bal, enters her campaign event to a hero's welcome.

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22 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 6h ago

Social Media Post Facebook group rules for a union that represents government employees: “No tolerance for content….promoting the Conservative Party”

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20 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 4h ago

Opinion My take on why women tend to vote Liberal/lean left

11 Upvotes

Let’s me preface this by saying this is just my observation, not criticism towards any demographics.

I find that 20-year-old to middle aged white women tend to be the group that is most likely to vote Liberal/NDP and I think it’s because a lot them (not all!) haven’t travelled much or aren’t aware of solutions to serious social issues. They want things that are well-meaning, empathetic and humanitarian in theory like LGBT rights, supporting other countries that are occupied, providing refuge for refugees/asylum seekers, harm reductions, etc. without taking other bigger issues within the country into consideration.

For me, I’m a WOC (half Asian, late 20s, university degree, great job) whose family came here from a totalitarian country (at the time) with only one party where people don’t even get to vote. I’ve seen the flaws in the governments of both sides of the world. My family worked hard and jumped through hoops to be Canadian. I’m just grateful that we even get to vote for the party we want to run our country.

But as someone whose family’s from a communist one-party country, I’m also upset and concerned with how much the party in charge (Libs) is starting to resemble the government of the country my parents moved from. I honestly don’t know why some hyper feminists here are always complaining about women’s rights when I cannot think of one thing men can do that women can’t in Canada. Maybe they should go to countries where women have REAL issues like India or the Middle East and fight for women’s rights there. And yes, I am voting for PP/Conservatives.


r/CanadianConservative 10h ago

Article EDITORIAL: Carney platform shows Poilievre was right.

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33 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 7h ago

Social Media Post CNN tries to drag Wayne Gretzky so they go to his hometown, and find that most people there still love him.

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21 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 7h ago

Social Media Post Canadians need to ask - what could $5.3 BILLION have been used for? HealthCare, homeless, vets, seniors, food banks….

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23 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 13h ago

Polling Young People Have Only Themselves To Blame

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56 Upvotes

I don't like boomers and how they're ruining this country. I fall under 18 to 29 category. If only half of eligible voters in this age pool shows up to vote we can't complain about rising rent prices, unaffordable housing, lack of job opportunities and the fact that the feds don't care about us. We didn't bother to show up to vote.

If you know someone in your life between 18 to 29 that's complaining about Canada all the time, make sure they show up to vote.


r/CanadianConservative 3h ago

Discussion So would now be a good time for Pierre to go on Mansbridge?

7 Upvotes

I’ve been saying for months: Pierre should go on Mansbridge. Nothing screams “traditional PM material” than a sit-down fireside chat with old Pete.

I don’t think that many people regularly listen to Peter anymore BUT he’s such an icon in Canadian political journalism that the media would have no choice but to talk about it for 24 hours. So it would help Pierre while helping Mansbridge boost his own audience — a win win.

It would also provide an opportunity to outflank Carney among the boomers-who-retired-to-Stratford set. Convince a few Carneygeezers that Pierre isn’t scary, while making Rosie Barton’s hair fall out.

Plus I think Mansbridge is somewhat sympathetic to Pierre and would give him a fair shake. You heard it here first folks.


r/CanadianConservative 12h ago

Social Media Post Video has surfaced stating he offered pro-bono consulting to politicians for policy making that benefit Brookfield directly

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42 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 11h ago

Opinion Are they right or wrong?

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31 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 5h ago

Discussion There's a rumor going aroud about Pierre Poilievre doing Joe Rogan's next episode. Thoughts?

11 Upvotes

Is this a good idea?


r/CanadianConservative 1h ago

Social Media Post Mocking Premiers of Ontario and Alberta.

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r/CanadianConservative 9h ago

Discussion Why do people bring up culture war talking points when discussing Pierre?

23 Upvotes

I've been this a lot on Twitter/X. It's a trend of people attacking Pierre over cultural issues like LGBT Rights, Abortion and the freedom convoy

This is a problem with political discourse where people don't have all the facts and they distort their view of a politician into a caricature. It happens with Trump, Trudeau and now it's Poilievre.

Let's address them one by one.

LGBT rights: There is a clip going around of Pierre opposing gay marriage in the 2000s Where he says "they oppose redefining traditional marriage". That is true, but it's not the party position now. Do people realize that Canada has progressed further in thought and culture. The Conservatives are for the rights of all Canadians including the LGBT community. After gay marriage was passed conservatives like the infamous MAXIME BERNIER, Patrick Brown and others attended a pride parade. Not to mention, the current deputy leader for the CPC Mellissa Lantsman is a married Lesbian. So this idea that the Tories will strip away gay marriage is complete fearmongering nonsense. And for trans rights specifically, Pierre voted yes for banning conversion therapy based on gender identity. This is a balanced approach because he opposed puberty blockers for minors.

Abortion: The party platform is that they don't care about abortion. They don't want to make legislation for or against it. Pierre has said this multiple times. The notion that they are attacking women's rights is asinine. It's all Justin Trudeau talking points. Justin Trudeau would say "we proudly believe in preserving a woman's right to choose". Bitch, who is taking your rights away? No one, nowhere.

Freedom Convoy: I think people are getting too worked up on the freedom convoy. Pierre agreed that it was a legitimate protest and gave people coffee and doughnuts. The same thing Toronto Police did with Free Palestine protestors. Lumping violent actors with everyone egregiously generalizes everything. Also, Pierre does not support diagolon. They are a bunch of retards who hijacked a legitimate protest. Not to mention, Jeremy Mackenzie faced charges for joking about sexually assaulting Pierre's wife. Poilievre was never a fan of the Alt-right or dialogon.

I hope people can do better research and look at both sides of the argument before voting. Because most of the topics can be easily debunked and can be seen as half-truths.


r/CanadianConservative 15h ago

Social Media Post The selling point for Mark Carney is that he is a smart economist. Here he is in Dec. 2020 saying inflation wouldn’t be a problem. A few months later inflation took off. Within the year it was a major problem.

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65 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 1h ago

News Liberals say 'no' to Chris Beach as Cariboo-Prince George candidate. He suspects his previous criticism of Trudeau and Eby is the cause

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r/CanadianConservative 12h ago

Social Media Post Does anyone recall a single CBC story about talking to your kids about living paycheque to paycheque after the lost decade of Liberals?

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38 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 13h ago

Social Media Post Justin Trudeau is out door knocking to help Carney win an election

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30 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 16h ago

Discussion Why aren't the scandals of the previous liberal government more talked about?

51 Upvotes

Why aren't the scandals of the previous Liberal government more talked about?

There are quite a few that come to mind — SNC-Lavalin, the green slush fund, the ArriveCAN scandal, and Randy Boissonnault, just to name a few. I'm probably missing others.

The ArriveCAN one in particular feels almost blatant.

An app projected to cost approximately $80,000 balloons to an estimated $59.5 million dollars. A two-person IT staffing firm, GC Strategies, received $19.1 million. They weren’t even the actual software developers — they were just a staffing firm.

And this wasn’t a one-off. GC Strategies had been awarded 34 government contracts since 2015, worth a total of $59.8 million.

Not directly related to this, but worth noting: the finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned hours before tabling the budget, after crushing the $40 billion deficit guardrail and pushing Canada’s fiscal deficit to $61.9 billion for 2023–2024.

Given Mark Carney’s financial background, you'd expect him to acknowledge the staggering mismanagement under the previous government, especially in the finance department. Instead, Chrystia Freeland was sworn in as Transport and Internal Trade Minister in Carney's cabinet.

It makes no sense why such an underperforming finance minister was given another critical cabinet role, especially by someone who should understand the scale of the financial debacle under her watch.