I was looking at a list of US recessions on Wikipedia (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States). It looks like every recession since 1973 has come under a Republican presidency.

In the past 50 years, has there been a recession that started during a Democrat administration?

Edit: to answer my question, yes in 1980 Carter. Apologies, for getting my presidential timeline wrong. 1980 was Carter (D) not Reagan, and 1973 was Nixon (R) not LBJ. Thanks /u/OrneryZombie1983 for pointing that out.

Likely tariff recession: trump (R)

Covid 19 recession: trump (R)

2007 Great Recession: baby bush (R)

2001: baby bush (R)

1990: papa bush (R)

1981-82: reagan (R)

1980: reagan (R) carter (D)

1973: LBJ (D) nixon (R)

Edit: (thanks /u/bozoputer)

1969 - Nixon (R)

1960 - Eisenhower (R)

1958 - Eisenhower (R)

1953 - Eisenhower (R)

Edit 2: Gerald Ford (R) 1974-1977 appears to be the only Republican president for the last 75 years, out of the eight, without a recession starting during his administration. For democrats, Carter appears to be the only Democratic president for the last 75 years, out of six, to have a recession start during his administration.

***Edit and I want to clear one thing up. My mistake I didn't word it to be taken literal like I'm depressed and it's affecting the quality of my life really negatively.

I should have probably said discouraging and making me second guess my strategy and thinking this is not one of those moments I should start getting aggressive on investing to get better deals in the future and I should start protecting my cash for some bad bad stuff***

I am a newer investor and trying to stay the course (Even though I'm basically where I started out a year ago) but dang every time I click on a Reddit sub it is straight panic and run.

I guess this is a good indicator to what Warren Buffett was talking about when others are fearful be greedy and is pretty easy too see when others are fearful on Reddit.

All I know is keeping fingers crossed hopefully everything works out for all of us in the long run. FYI I completely understand some crazy stuff going on right now.

I'm not trying to cause any arguments or anything like. And I'm really impressed about this sub and the majority of the post are really positive and encouraging. I am not going to sell I am going to ride this wave all the way to the bottom even if my balance goes to zero.

I've noticed the last couple days, every thread on the various investing subs will have a comment about how smart Warren Buffett was to see this coming.

Is that really true, though?

https://companiesmarketcap.com/berkshire-hathaway/cash-on-hand/

Berkshire has been upping their cash position since 2022. Their biggest increases were in the in Q2 and Q3 of 2024. Which is before Trump got elected.

People make it seem like he sold everything after the election. That's another thing, too. He didn't sell everything. Berkshire's cash position was still only 30% of their investments as of their last report.

I didn’t know it was this bad. We get best ever and most evers all the time. Inflation tends to make that possible. Some Black Monday in 1805 might have lost $700 and 3 donkeys and it stands as some colossal reversal of fortune.

But we’ve posted a lot of the record breaking on the positive side. Or at least I have. Only fair we show this.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stocks-poised-for-biggest-two-day-wipeout-in-history-as-marketloses-9-6-trillion-since-inauguration-day-430919f6?&g=2bf9a483-7e6f-461a-a1f9-76fa2fe7b299&mod=djem_mwnbulletin

Roughly $11.1 trillion has been wiped away from the U.S. stock market since Jan. 17, the Friday before President Donald Trump took the oath of office and began his second term, according to data from Dow Jones Market Data.

Some $6.6 trillion of that figure was lost on Thursday and Friday alone — the largest two-day wipeout of shareholder value on record, Dow Jones data showed.

By the time the market closed on Friday, the S&P 500 had surpassed its losses from the first 75 days of George W. Bush’s first term in office — the last time stocks saw comparable declines during the early days of a new administration. The small-cap-focused Russell 2000 has seen its rockiest start to a new administration on record, FactSet data showed.

Can’t believe we’d be looking back with rosy eyes toward George W. The article is especially concerned where we enter a trade war(s) and “don’t back down.”

I don’t think anyone anticipated how bad this would get and how fast. But the market can change on a dime. Provided there is a letup on pressure. But how the hell are businesses supposed to plan and build out? Everyone is sitting on cash because they don’t know if they’ll need it just to stay afloat.

And this administration seems incapable of admitting mistake. They got plenty of experts to blame if they want scapegoats. I just don’t know they’ll reverse course. If they do, will it be fast enough to matter?

Love where we’re at. Love everyone who voted for this guy. Great plan great strategy. Tariffs on all avocados because the us will just start growing its own avocados. Turn the entire world against us. Where do we go from here. If I sell, lose 23k if I hold on I’ll lose more. So what’s it gonna be. No more dollar cost averaging. What have you guys lost where are you looking for refuge?

Edit: I invested a good chunk in energy. Believe nuclear is the future of energy (it is) but should’ve sold when trump was inaugurated. Only down about 3k of my principle, the rest were gains wiped

That was what everyone in this community always advocated for, but here we are…

Now everyone is apparently holding mountains of cash waiting for “the bottom.” Completely contradicting what they had been preaching all along.

Personally, I am somewhere in the middle. I like to keep $100k of cash on hand at all times when we are at record highs, which includes my emergency fund and cushion for opportunities, or money available to pay down my mortgage if I so choose.

During this bear market, I am taking advantage of the opportunity and deploying $10k blocks every 5% down in the S&P below 10% down. Since we are at 17% down now, I am down to $80k in reserves. I will continue adding all the way down. I won’t technically run out of money until we get to 55% down, which I don’t see happening. Once we rebound I will build those cash reserves back up most likely through my income and not selling.

I posted here right after the first crash in February “Don’t buy the dip, this is more 1929 vibes than 2001.” In response I got almost 100 replies telling me not to time the market, before it got removed by mods for being a “question” (it was not).

Literally all Trump is doing is exactly what he promised on the campaign. And virtually every economist knew it would cause a recession. Even after the crash yesterday he doubled down, saying he might add tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals too. He is simply trying to remove us from global markets, and it’s working!

Buy the dip once people start actually pushing back against Trump - no real reason to buy before that point.

US stocks cratered on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) plunging more than 2,200 points after China stoked trade-war fears and Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of higher inflation and slower growth stemming from tariffs.

The Dow pulled back 5.5% to enter into correction territory. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (GSPC) sank nearly 6%, as the broad-based benchmark capped its worst week since 2020. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) dropped 5.8% to close in bear market territory.

The major averages added to Thursday's $2.5 trillion wipeout after China said it will impose additional tariffs of 34% on all US products from April 10 — matching the extra 34% duties imposed by Trump on Wednesday.

That ramped up investor worries that countries are more likely to retaliate than negotiate, leading to a protracted global trade war.

Investors flocked to government bonds as the 10-year Treasury (TNX) yield fell to 3.9%, nearing its lowest levels since October.

Economists are warning that with tariffs as-is, the risk of a US recession is rising. The monthly jobs report, unusually overshadowed Friday, showed a labor market that held steady ahead of Trump's biggest tariffs. The US added 228,000 jobs in March, beating estimates, though the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Powell for the first time addressed the reality of the tariffs, saying they were "higher than anticipated." He said it is "too soon to say" what the proper rate path should be. Traders have ramped up bets on interest rate cuts this year to five, as the Fed is expected to set its efforts to cool inflation aside to tackle the bigger risk of economic slowdown.

Trump, posting on Truth Social on Friday, added to fears by saying that his policies "will never change" and warning that China "played it wrong."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-plunges-2200-points-nasdaq-enters-bear-market-as-trump-tariffs-spark-worst-meltdown-since-2020-200042876.html

How investors can respond to Trump’s tariffs turmoil - https://on.ft.com/4ck4ECN via @FT "There are many others. One is the value of equities among the financial assets of US households. This amount, according to data from Bank of America and the Federal Reserve, has swung between 10 and 30 per cent since the second world war. By the end of last year the proportion had reached 29 per cent.

This might bring pause for thought. Not only has this percentage risen well past that at the top of the first tech bubble, which popped in 2000, but that figure also exceeds the previous peak of 28 per cent in 1968."

Obviously the current house market is a lil off and there are higher interest rates in the past (let’s call it 6 percent). If you are in the market for a 500k house and you have 400k in wealth, why would you not put 300k on the house? This leaves the 100k safety net/entertainment money accessible . This scenario can assume this average person is already saving well for retirement.

What is the argument to only putting 20% down and keeping the rest liquid.

The mortgage rates are higher than a high yield savings, so seems like that is not an option.

The market is generally scary (Especially this week…but that’s another argument) so getting consistent returns of >6 percent seems like risk/reward isn’t there.

Positive argument would be having a large amount of cash liquid to enjoy the money more, invest, or buy toys.

I know this is subjective but even the most general explanation is fine.

Thanks!

I was wondering whether anyone had some interesting advice on how to safely deploy about $500,000 for a couple of weeks before tax day. What would be an option for maximum return for a very short period of time? Assume that some very modest level of risk above a savings account is acceptable.

At the time of writing this Dow futures are losing 1400 points. Apple is down another 4.77% pre-market to $194, as it has 90% of iPhones assembled in China.

S&P 500 futures are down 3.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 4%. Us 10 yr at 3.905%. Vix volatility index spikes to 42.82, highest level since Covid

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

It is going to be an interesting day.

I in early 20s and just started looking into investing in spy or voo some snp500 into a roth ira everyone scared because market going down but if you just buy and hold for 40 years the market going down is a good thing right you get to buy low and get slight better gains in the long term

I realized that I am way too invested in tech and would like to rebalance my portfolio(planning on slowly DCAing into VTI/VOO/VTSAX. I am 35 YO and still have a minimum of 15 years left before retirement.

Current holdings:

SPY: 10 shares. Down 1.1% or $57

QQQ: 20 shares. Down 10.5% or $991

NVDA: 205 shares. Down 25.2% or $6,402

MSFT: 82 shares. Down 12.27% or $4,120

GOOG: 162 shares. Down 21.3% or $6,445

AAPL: 61 shares. Down 16.14% or $2,191

AMZN: 30 shares. Down 19.51% or $1,237

Total: down -$21,447.32

I have some money in HYSA that's collecting 4% and plan on keeping it there(possible house down payment, etc). The yearly return is probably around $15k

I am not sure if I understand the TLH rules correctly. For example:

If I sell my stocks for a loss(for example $21k loss) and I end up collecting 15k in interest from HYSA for year of 2025. Would my capital gains for that year be negative $6k? And I could use this to offset my taxable income for 2025 by $3,000 and then another $3k for 2026? Is this worth doing given my situation? Or is it better to hold?

Is this worth doing? Does the amount of lower tax I am paying due to lower taxable income worth more then the capital losses I am realizing?

Thank you

this am the Dow was still in the green for the last 12 months, I literally checked at 8 am. Amazingly, incredibly it got into the red due to a 2k fall

SP500 -6% over last 12 mo.

Nasdaq -5.7%

Russ 2000 -4%

etc.

All gains from the last year are now gone.

A couple of years ago, conservative investors were all talking about I-Bonds. Then inflation dropped as the Fed lowered rates and, of course, I-Bonds (or TIPs) lost their appeal. Where could, should, or shouldn't they fit into a portfolio today — say a married couple nearing retirement with 10K each to spare?

No one's talking about them — so I'm deducing they don't make sense now. But I'm not sure why. I hear predictions the Fed will cut rates, which'd be bad for these investments (I think mostly in terms of I-Bonds — I know less about TIPS). But inflation seems like more of a certainty.

I checked my portfolio today after a couple of weeks, and oh my I am so down. I am still a novice investor (about $20k right now) and I am investing for the long-term since I am 22 years. Trying to stay positive with the stock market and will keep on investing. I also don't have a lot of free cash right now since my job is starting in a couple of months. :/

Lesson (for me): don't look at my portfolio. go paint or eat an ice cream instead.

Many people who are sitting on cash will say "I am going to buy the dip." What is the criteria for you to buy the dip with excess cash if you are fortunate enough to be in a position to do so?

For me the VIX needs to be under 20 and there has to be some sort of resolution to the current trade wars. Example. Market falls another 10% Trump comes out and revises to a blanket 5-10% Tariff. I could live with that. Or things get so bad Jerome Powell has to do an emergency broadcast ( Stimulus. ) That would be my all in cue.

WASHINGTON/BEIJING, April 4 (Reuters) - A deal to spin off the U.S. assets of TikTok was put on hold after China indicated it would not approve the deal following President Donald Trump's tariffs announcement this week, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

Trump on Friday extended by 75 days a deadline for ByteDance to sell U.S. assets of the popular short video app to a non-Chinese buyer, or face a ban that was supposed to have taken effect in January under a 2024 law.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/trump-tiktok-sale-deadline-looms-us-looks-deal-2025-04-04

If I increase my DCA (dollar-cost averaging) and commit to riding this out for the next couple of years, is this one of those real wealth-building windows?

I started investing later than I wanted to, but I’m ready to stay consistent and focus long-term. Just wondering if this is one of those times where you can not only build real gains but also catch up if you’re behind.

Would love to hear from those who’ve been through similar market cycles—does this feel like a time to double down and stay patient?

I've been DCAing into VOO for a while, but now that I'm getting older (and the market is, well, where it is) I'm considering holding onto the VOO I have but reallocating my monthly contributions to a more stable fund.

Any other folks in my age bracket making similar moves? What funds are you switching to?

For context, I'm maxing out my 401(k) into a TDF and have additional holdings (stocks, ETFs, UITs, etc.) that I'm sitting on but not actively contributing to.

We inherited an account that is currently held by Morgan Stanley with a financial advisor. We invest ourselves and want to transfer it out to Fidelity. If i initiate an ACATS account transfer do all these positions automatically get sold off for cash? I would call Morgan Stanley but its weekend now. Or do I have to tell them to liquidate everything first? Looks like there is no way for me to do this myself. There is no buy or sell button on the Morgan Stanley website.

Hi! I am not a smart investor, but I feel like I have an opportunity. I was laid off in October. I rolled an $86k 401k over to an IRA at my bank in February. Because I’m lazy and didn’t know what to do with it, it has just been sitting there since. Not invested in anything. What should I be researching to put it into? I’m 50.

I have a similar amount in a different account that is in a money market fund steadily gaining about 5%. I have been drawing on this account during my time unemployed, it is where I dumped my lump sum severance and bonus payout when I got laid off.

I’m starting a new job at the end of the month and will start a new 401k contribution. I am fortunate that I will likely be able to max out this contribution as long as I have the job.

Just curious what you all feel most "confident" about putting your money in in these uncertain times. I'd love to make some money in this crazy market, but I understand that is very difficult, so if you have other "safe"/capital preservation ideas I'd love to hear those too! Just looking for opinions! Good luck and godspeed to everyone out there. These are very sad times for America and the global economy