r/investing • u/waitbutwhycc • 2d ago

Most Predictable Drop of All Time

I posted here right after the first crash in February “Don’t buy the dip, this is more 1929 vibes than 2001.” In response I got almost 100 replies telling me not to time the market, before it got removed by mods for being a “question” (it was not).

Literally all Trump is doing is exactly what he promised on the campaign. And virtually every economist knew it would cause a recession. Even after the crash yesterday he doubled down, saying he might add tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals too. He is simply trying to remove us from global markets, and it’s working!

Buy the dip once people start actually pushing back against Trump - no real reason to buy before that point.

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u/Scaryclouds 2d ago

Agreed… but Trump is so chaotic, that it wouldn’t surprise me if he totally folded on the tariff stuff by end of next week, and by June, because so much of bullshit will have happened from his administration, that we (the market) will have all but forgotten about this tariff non-sense. 

Not trying to say it will happen, or even likely to happen, just that’s the particular issue Trump represents. Whereas any other administration would go a deliberative process, have a clear and understandable goal, and put out trial balloons to get a sense as to how others would react… Trump just springs massive tariffs on the entire world with little warning and unclear goals in mind. And they could go away just as quickly as they were implemented because some countries “made concessions” or Trump received so much domestic blowback he folded.

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u/HystericalSail 2d ago

The rest of the world will not forget about the tariff nonsense. This was the kick in the ass the rest of the world needed to make contingency plans, to work toward reducing their reliance on the U.S. for everything.

Executing on these plans will have costs, which will be reflected in guidance and earnings.

You can't un-burn your house. And we are definitely, very much on fire right now.

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u/Scaryclouds 2d ago

There will be longterm ramifications for all this even if Trump folds tomorrow, you’re 100% right. 

However the scale of the longterm ramifications will be substantially different if Trump folds tomorrow, versus these tariffs are more or less still in place in June or later. 

Businesses and countries don’t necessarily want to have to rethink trade, supply lines, markets. And the power for returning to status quo would be very powerful if that option is provided. 

But again, you’re right countries and businesses will be developing contingencies/pursuing alternatives now that US has become an unreliable partner/actor. 

The only way that bell (maybe) gets unrung, is if Trump and Vance are impeached and removed from office, and Johnson (or I guess more likely in this scenario Hakeem Jeffries) upon assuming the office makes clear the intent to return to normalcy. Needless to say, I don’t see that scenario playing out. 

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u/HystericalSail 2d ago

That is a wildcard. If congress and courts act to neutralize these random tariffs it'll go a long way to assuring the world of normalcy. If not, the risk of some singular lunatic coming to power and being an epileptic bull in the world economy china shop will need mitigating. Nobody wants that tail risk every 4 years.

Yes, executives are lazy if they can be. Plurality of them are human, it's only to be expected. But they also like money and power. Trump is posing an existential risk to the continued employment of many a senior exec.

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u/cafedude 2d ago

If congress and courts act to neutralize these random tariffs

That's really the only hope here. If congress were to act that would give some assurance that they're willing to reign in the craziness. But it doesn't seem as though Johnson is willing to let the House vote on this topic so it's slim hope.

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u/ausamerika 2d ago

It's too late for congress to act. They had their chance earlier. You want to be part of a group that gets your state's Federal funding pulled by the President because you dared to cross him?

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u/YallaHammer 2d ago

This just pushed back, including four Republicans, on the Canada tariffs and even Ted Cruz has come out against these tariffs. He didn’t defend his wife when Trump insulted her looks but hey, he’ll step up on tariffs… it’s costing him more this time.

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u/Perfect_Earth_8070 2d ago

besides what he’s done with these tariffs, he’s done a number of illegal/impeachable things since 1/20 and congress has been silent. i don’t expect them to develop a backbone now

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u/Particular-Macaron35 2d ago

John Roberts is going to save us? Are you kidding me?

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u/HystericalSail 2d ago

"I am the gweat piwate Wobewts. Thewe will be no suwiwows." Definitely more likely outcome, I agree.