Most Predictable Drop of All Time

[u/waitbutwhycc]

I posted here right after the first crash in February “Don’t buy the dip, this is more 1929 vibes than 2001.” In response I got almost 100 replies telling me not to time the market, before it got removed by mods for being a “question” (it was not).

Literally all Trump is doing is exactly what he promised on the campaign. And virtually every economist knew it would cause a recession. Even after the crash yesterday he doubled down, saying he might add tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals too. He is simply trying to remove us from global markets, and it’s working!

Buy the dip once people start actually pushing back against Trump - no real reason to buy before that point.

[u/Scaryclouds]

There will be longterm ramifications for all this even if Trump folds tomorrow, you’re 100% right. 

However the scale of the longterm ramifications will be substantially different if Trump folds tomorrow, versus these tariffs are more or less still in place in June or later. 

Businesses and countries don’t necessarily want to have to rethink trade, supply lines, markets. And the power for returning to status quo would be very powerful if that option is provided. 

But again, you’re right countries and businesses will be developing contingencies/pursuing alternatives now that US has become an unreliable partner/actor. 

The only way that bell (maybe) gets unrung, is if Trump and Vance are impeached and removed from office, and Johnson (or I guess more likely in this scenario Hakeem Jeffries) upon assuming the office makes clear the intent to return to normalcy. Needless to say, I don’t see that scenario playing out. 

[u/HystericalSail → u/Scaryclouds]

That is a wildcard. If congress and courts act to neutralize these random tariffs it'll go a long way to assuring the world of normalcy. If not, the risk of some singular lunatic coming to power and being an epileptic bull in the world economy china shop will need mitigating. Nobody wants that tail risk every 4 years.

Yes, executives are lazy if they can be. Plurality of them are human, it's only to be expected. But they also like money and power. Trump is posing an existential risk to the continued employment of many a senior exec.

[u/cafedude → u/HystericalSail]

If congress and courts act to neutralize these random tariffs

That's really the only hope here. If congress were to act that would give some assurance that they're willing to reign in the craziness. But it doesn't seem as though Johnson is willing to let the House vote on this topic so it's slim hope.

[u/Perfect_Earth_8070 → u/cafedude]

besides what he’s done with these tariffs, he’s done a number of illegal/impeachable things since 1/20 and congress has been silent. i don’t expect them to develop a backbone now