r/investing • u/waitbutwhycc • 2d ago

Most Predictable Drop of All Time

I posted here right after the first crash in February “Don’t buy the dip, this is more 1929 vibes than 2001.” In response I got almost 100 replies telling me not to time the market, before it got removed by mods for being a “question” (it was not).

Literally all Trump is doing is exactly what he promised on the campaign. And virtually every economist knew it would cause a recession. Even after the crash yesterday he doubled down, saying he might add tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals too. He is simply trying to remove us from global markets, and it’s working!

Buy the dip once people start actually pushing back against Trump - no real reason to buy before that point.

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u/rco8786 2d ago

We're a long way from the bottom IMO. It'll be multiple quarters of absolute shit earnings reports and terrible guidance. It's not good.

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u/Cautious_optimism09 2d ago

My personal favorite part of this is as of 12:00 central were at a 13% drop without any bad economic news like negative GDP or inflation reports once stuff sets in. Gonna be a fun ride down 🥳

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u/OlafTheDestroyer2 2d ago

I moved my 401k into bonds a couple months ago and I’ve been shorting the market (and TSLA) for a month now. I’m going to keep shorting it, but I’m only playing with gains. If these tariffs stay in place we are headed way lower, but at a certain point, there’s a fairly high chance that Congress steps in to stop the tariffs. If that happens, I don’t want to get caught with my pants down.

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u/rabbit-guilliman 2d ago

Yes, but you'll see announcement of them scheduling a vote before they do it. The house passed rules that said they couldn't even debate a change to tariffs on Mexico and Canada https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/congress-just-made-it-harder-for-congress-to-block-trumps-tariffs/ar-AA1AN9OX

So they have to undo that rule. Then schedule a vote. Then vote to overcome the tariffs with a two thirds "veto proof" majority which requires republicans to go against Trump. So I think the only one who can end the tariffs in the short term is Trump. And he is absolutely delusional right now.

So I think you're safe to short the market for awhile.

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u/Objective_Problem_90 2d ago

It's funny that others have follow laws and procedures to go after crappy presidential policy, but trump is just allowed to do whatever and violate court orders with z f's given.

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u/OlafTheDestroyer2 2d ago

He seems to be following das playbook.

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u/ushred 12h ago

he's following the shock therapy playbook from the soviet union ending. putin probably put it in his head as an opportunity to seize power like he did.

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u/vaterl 6h ago

Trump may be doing a lot of batshit crazy things, but the playbook he is following is the law. Everything he’s doing in the executive branch was put in place long before him. If the government wanted to prevent this it would have been changed, but this is the power given to the executive branch by both other branches.

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u/trogdor1234 2d ago

They don’t have to undo that rule because Trump is a moron and put these tariffs under a completely new emergency declaration.

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u/OlafTheDestroyer2 2d ago

Agreed. I feel pretty safe, for now. I understand all of that, but I still think there is a breaking point.

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u/faptastrophe 2d ago

The breaking point is when Republicans start to believe they're going to lose power. That only happens when the apprentice dude's followers turn on him en masse. They're all trapped in a right wing media bubble so keep an eye on if fox news breaks with the administration.

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u/OlafTheDestroyer2 2d ago

That’s good advice. 30% of the country is a lost cause, but once people really start to feel the effects of these tariffs, I have a feeling that the other 70% will make it known how mad they are.. You can’t win elections with 30%, when the other 70% start participating.

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u/big-papito 1d ago

The subservient worms will not dare cross the mad king.

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u/toywatch 2d ago

I had them in bonds but now i am worried that the stagflation would offset rate cut expectation, while spread would get insanely high and ratings get notched down. Anyhow bond will do relatively better than stocks

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u/OlafTheDestroyer2 2d ago

I’ve got those fears as well. I’m not smart enough to know what I should really be doing with my money, but as of now, I’m only down about 0.25% over the last couple months, and I’m pretty happy with my move.

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u/seriously2017 7h ago

My 401k took a 20% hit. I am not an investor. just 10-15 out from “retirement.” I know nothing and sadly feel my only option is to do nothing. I agree with others that this is not the bottom. Lots of reasons there is much more pain to come. I moved more into cash and some US into EU stocks. No idea what may come, but certainly can’t put it into cash. That seems dumb

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u/Dizzy_Maybe8225 1d ago

I knew this was going to happen...but I did not take action as I was not sure how to deal with the situation, I should have discussed with someone. Anyways...I did move everything in 401k yesterday but it was too late.

Two weeks back sold a lot and held only a few long positions as I had already taken a hit. I shorted some but closed all of it yesterday.

Now I am not too much short or too much long. My balances are up 20% year to date. So not sure what to do...!!