Hi everyone, I believe the market is in for a wild ride (downwards). I am not saying it will - nobody knows the future - but I sure did invest since a week, ahead of the tariff announcements, in uvxz and made quite a nice profit. A bit nervous now about next week so I sold my complete position at the closing bell. I believe next week will show the long term direction of the economy and if the tariff strategy might work (I give it a 10% chance, more if countries start to make “deals” with the US). Any luck for other fellows? 🍀

A lot of posts about missing the drops this week, so hopefully I'm not just adding to the deluge. Late last year I finally committed to creating some structure and adding diversification to my 401a and IRA (my Roth still holds a handful of individual stocks). I'm targeting 60% VTI, 20% VXUS, and 20% VXF and rebalancing every quarter. After the way things have gone this year I was about 3% overweight on foreign and eager to rebalance on 4/1 to capitalize on the discount we've had on US stocks. So I did, obviously knowing that Liberation Day was coming but that it was also a crap shoot (I assumed the tarrifs were priced in). Afterward, I'm obviously regretting not waiting to rebalance but trying to convince myself that I still got a discount and that there was no guarantee it would go the way it did. In the future should I still be as rigid in rebalancing? I'm an IT professional so having a logical plan feels right to me, for no other reason than to take out the emotion (even though it's still there).

Ive never invested in stocks and im young and have alot of research still to do but I have a basic understanding of the stockmarket. Its gone down quite a bit recently so I've been wondering if its a good idea to buy while its down and make money once it bounces back? I planned to put some money in stocks once I was able to but right now im not really sure whag to do.

I’m looking at Nvidia’s options, calls and puts, and seeing this for every one that I check.  It was happening before market close, too.  For instance, the May 2^nd $70 Put has a Bid of $1.11 and an Ask of $.91.  Has anyone seen something like this happen in the past?

Edit: Turns out it's not every single contract:
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda/option-chain

Quick question for everyone here, curious on how your thoughts are.

I'm a buy and hold person, I only sell if any of below 3 conditions are met:
1) I need extra cash for unexpected events
2) Fundamentals of the company I bought has changed
3) Assumption that US will continue to grow and be a global economic leader

Mostly due to #3, I have not sold at all for the last ~8 years and only bought more during dips, including covid crash. While I'll most likely be buying more again if we see further dip from here due to tariff wars and a possible recession/depression, I'd be lying if I say I haven't questioned #3 in the past couple of weeks.

What do you all think? Even if this orangutan cancels all tariffs going forward, I'm curious if US will have the ability to regain its trust globally until at least the next election (and let's please hope we get a better president elected by then, not this 3rd term nonsense).

I'm believing that this time will also not be different again, and US market will find its strength over time, but I'm just curious of everyone's view today. Thanks in advance.

The oil embargo led to stagflation in the 1970s, and extremely high tariffs are basically the same idea--a sudden increase in the cost of inputs into most everything leading to inflation, combined with a slowing economy and shrinking output.

So my question is, what were the right investment strategies for dealing with stagflation in the 70s, and are any of them still applicable today?

Canada imported $350 billion of products from the US in 2024, making it its largest trading partner.

US CEOs are mentioning that their Canadian retailers are pausing or no longer taking their orders due to consumer behaviour changes in Canada where consumers buy Canadian made goods or EU/International goods over American ones. While the companies below are SMBs and private, it's often SMBs that feel the effects of economic policy before it impacts the bigger players such as Unilever, Coca Cola, or Pepsi who will reflect this impact in their next earnings.

- Parasol Co (diapers)

- GT’s Living Foods (kombucha)

- Demeter Fragrances (cosmetics)

- Fast Orange (home goods/cleaners)

https://globalnews.ca/news/11106170/buy-canadian-us-companies-impact-canada-retailers/

So, I have the opportunity to max out 2024 Roth IRAs because I haven't hit the submit button on the tax app.

I wonder if we would be better off sitting out investing right now in a Roth with Edward Jones and just hold on to my 7k for mine and another 7k for my partner?

We have a pretty good interest rate on our mortgage. So paying that down makes no sense.

I know you can't time the market, but I also feel like very bad news bears is coming and this is just the tip.

Anxiety is real.

You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet Song by Bachman–Turner Overdrive

no more money to keep buying the dips. thinking of selling my other purchases to buy at a lower price even though i will take a loss but i want to take advantage of low prices. maybe the cheaper prices will make up for the loss from buying higher dips. thoughts???

I have been looking for a house since September and have kept my down payment in a money market fund invested in US treasuries (VUSXX). Of course I'm paying attention to the news and starting to worry a bit about what will happen in the US in the long term. At what point should I consider divesting from those and moving to another low-risk investment? What alternatives should I consider?

I've been following D.R. Horton for about a year now. I shorted them around September of last year following a hunch that the party was over, and ultimately a bunch of due diligence that led to discovering how exposed they were in some markets that could be hit hard with oversupply, cheap rentals, falling home prices, and other bad scenarios for developers.

One thing I know is that over 80% of D.R. Hortons shares are owned by institutional investors. Their stock follows a similar pattern most days (not a day trader) which is interesting.

What's really wild to me is they dropped to a year low in premarket, and now are up 7% today. Maybe there's tariff news that is good for them but I haven't heard it.

Anyway, total bear for D.R. Horton over here.

https://youtu.be/bKB36TbuKAI?si=jVrjGvxbWm5trre_

So with President Trump launching his “Liberation Day” tariffs, uncertainty has taken center stage in financial markets, but this isn’t your typical uncertainty.

It’s an “Inception”-style scenario—uncertainty layered within uncertainty—as the global response evolves and markets grapple with unpredictable long-term impacts.

As you’d expect, gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, is poised to gain traction as some of these ‘known unknowns’ gradually become clearer. Yet, it’s not just geopolitical drama driving the narrative. There are critical technical and economic factors exerting additional pressure on gold prices:

Central banks continue their aggressive gold-buying spree, signaling deeper economic concerns.

There’s a notable dislocation between London’s physical gold market and COMEX deliveries, hinting at underlying market stress.

Swiss refiners are operating at maximum capacity, underscoring the unprecedented global demand for physical bullion.

Inflationary pressures continue to rise, pushing investors towards gold as an inflation hedge.

Bond market volatility and fluctuating yields are increasing investor uncertainty, further elevating gold’s appeal as a stable asset.

Quite interesting if you’re into gold markets definitely worth your attention.

I’ve been seeing a lot of panic lately — people saying “the market is trash,” “the economy is doomed,” or “we’re all screwed.” But honestly… this kind of volatility is exactly what investing is supposed to include.

Markets go up. Markets go down. That’s just how it works. The problem is most people say they want to invest, but what they actually want is a risk-free lottery ticket. The moment things stop going up in a straight line, everyone freaks out.

But this isn’t unexpected. This is the game.

You’re supposed to prepare for moments like these — not be surprised by them.

Look at Warren Buffett. He’s sitting on $350 billion in cash right now. Not because he’s scared — but because he’s patient. He’s waiting to buy when others are selling in fear.

Most people: • Invest emotionally • React to headlines • Forget about cycles • Expect linear growth

But if you zoom out, you’ll see that every dip — every crash — has been followed by recovery. Long-term investors win because they don’t flinch.

If you’re investing for the next 10, 20, 30 years… a red day, week, or even year isn’t a signal to panic. It’s a time to stay focused, stay consistent, and if you can — buy more.

Just wanted to share this in case anyone needs a reminder. You’re not doing it wrong. This is investing.

For those holding a Real Estate portfolio, how are you doing?

• Lots of people are holding cheap mortgage debt (2-3%, 30 year fixed) and rental properties.
  
• This debt is effectively shorting the dollar,
  
• RE is a hedge against inflation the cost of debt service goes down in an inflationary environment

I have some real estate that’s thankfully a strong backbone for me and aside from the haircuts my 401k and Roth are taking, my sp500 investments are clearly in a tough spot. I’ve already set aside plans to DCA into the sp500 monthly and am comfortable with the long haul.

However, I’ve parked about 50k into a HYSA at 3.7 percent. Nothing to brag about obviously but I’m not lumping into the market right now.

Whats the best place to park cash? It doesn’t need to be touched immediately so everything is on the table, suggestions?

What it says above. I've just lost the equivalent of 2 years value. Yes, it might recover, but if I want my pension to work I'm another two years off retirement.

How badly has it affected you? How will.your investments compensate for these drops in pension value?

Was looking at moving my savings and a CD I own to TMCXX. I live in PA if that matters for tax reasons.

I haven’t purchased a money market fund before so a little new to this. I do need access to these funds in an emergency. Is there any down side to doing this? Currently my flexible CD is only giving me 3.4%.

Hello,

Canadian investor here.
So, i have a modest 82k CAD portfolio which is down to 70k (-15%). No money left to DCA more. Its a mix of top MAG7 stocks except Tesla.
It hurts very bad and kind of want me to just close everything and run away. But cannot help myself opening my app and seeing it every 10mins.

I know its long term, wouldn't make a difference after a year or 2 years. I get all that.

Just wanted to check, how are you guys dealing with this urge or pain to see your portfolio down so much? What do you do exactly to keep your mind away from these apps, or tradingview charts, news, etc. ?
The biggest pain point i have right now is, like i don't have more money at this very instant to DCA :( that's making me feel more bad. Salaries/savings don't drop sooner.

How is it going for everyone here.

Many think the administration has slapped tariffs like a drunken sailor because it wants to bring the jobs back, punish the countries who were abusing us, protect the domestic industries, etc.

This can't be farther from the truth.

To understand what's happening, we need to look at the government maturing debt in the next 30 years.

An unusual load of debt must be refinanced just in the next few years during this administration.

You would need two things to do that, (1) a load of cash, and (2) low interest rates.

Slapping tariffs would do exactly that: (1) bringing a load of cash to the government, (2) causing the money in equity market to panic and escape to the treasuries which will cause the interest rates to drop.

Icing on the cake would be if Powell capitulates and lowers the funds rate "because" we might enter a recession.

As you can see, this is more of an emergency measure for a near term problem, something that has to be done if the country doesn't want to default and destroy the dollar.

So the thinking that the government is going to negotiate with China to remove the tariffs is completely flawed. The administration needs this money.

Hello,

Things have been going absolute bonkers..My story..Had about 520k in 401k out of which 400k was in income accounts..Have been out of the market and missed out on all the gains since 2022..Now this downturn gave me a slight better entry..was thinking about just putting all 400k back in Feb because had no clue when the market would stop going up which I am glad I did not.

I put about 200k back in the market today all sp500 index since have no clue how much it will go down. I still have about 200k left in 401k and about 200k in personal cash to invest.

Before all this happened back in Feb an intro plan with vanguard advisor he told me to be 85% stocks and 15%bonds. He had my portfolio as 55% VTI..30% vxus and 15%and.

My question if you had this money what would u do..just wait for more downtrend or start dca or buy particular etf and call it a day..I wont need this money for next 20 years..have 100k in emergency savings

Say I have 80,000 dollars in a high yield savings account right now (3.7%) and I have no investments anywhere else. Yes, this is separate from my emergency savings. I’m looking to get into investing and feel like now is the time to jump in.

With everything that you now know, if you were to start investing on Monday, April 7th, how would you do it?

Looking to be reasonably safe with my money.

How would you diversify? 60/40 stocks/bonds? 50/30/20 stocks, bonds, private assets?

Please pretend the 80,000 is yours… how would you divi it up into each investment? Would you buy ETFs, would you buy mutual funds, would you buy bonds? And then which ones would you buy?

Realistically, what is the smartest thing to do when the market is “crashing”?

Thanks all. Really appreciate your time.

Edit: After reading the replies and doing a bit more research, I’m thinking of going either 55% VOO + 30% VXUS + 15% VXF or 70% VTI + 30% VXUS.

Another bloodbath day.

Yet, I'm chill. And not because of that you know what Reddit phrase.

Was already mostly in short duration bonds and AAA CLOs at the beginning of the year due to realizing the market was extremely overvalued and volatile. Small equity exposure < 10%-15% I'd say.

Before the recent Liberation Day I'd already eliminated all CLO positions - after seeing that yield spread grow. De-risking, even for a "safe" asset like AAA CLOs.

I briefly also held some high yield bond ETF / CLOs - BBB kind...but sold those a couple of weeks ago as well when I saw them breaking down due to price action.

Dabbled in some Int'l ETFs / Europe Defense trade - but took some small losses when those trades reversed in the last week or two.

Now < 1% equity positions - for old time's sake. < 5% gold

I'm up for the year < 1% more or less (Multi-6 figure portfolio USD). My performance is nothing to write home about...but the moral of the story:

sometimes, not losing is winning.

sometimes boring, is exciting!

Bills, bonds, and TIPS!

On that note -- looking to re-enter market soon....but due to life situation, will stay mostly in bonds. As for when....in the next few days might be alright.

Typically, it's impossible to predict when a major market downturn will occur, as it can happen unexpectedly and without warning. However, in this particular case, we knew Liberation Day was approaching on April 2nd. Given that, was it reasonable to anticipate a market crash with absolute certainty—or at least a 70-30 probability? And if so, would it have been a sound strategy to sell and buy back later, even if there was still a 30% chance the market would rise instead?

Related to studies like these: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1jlg7j2/missing_a_few_days_in_market_can_cost_you/

The financial advice most passive investors know now, is to DCA through the dip. Eventually when the economy recovers, we’d have bought into the market at a discount. But how often are you DCA-ing? Weekly? Monthly? Bi-monthly?

If you DCA too frequently, you will rack up transaction fees. And if the dip lasts longer than expected, you may run out of cash to continue DCA-ing before the dip hits its lowest.

If you DCA too infrequently though (maybe bi-monthly), then if the market somehow recovers within 2 months, you’d have missed the opportunity to buy the dip.

Looking at past market crashes and how long they took to recover may inform us of how often to schedule an investment, but they vary so much. 1929 great depression took 25 years to reach its ATH, 2000 dot com bubble took 15 years to reach its ATH, 2007 housing crisis took 4.5 years to reach its ATH, 2020 covid crash took 5 months to reach its ATH.

So, how are you guys planning to schedule your DCA, and how much are you investing per DCA investment, such that you can maximize your odds of having enough cash to continue investing at the lowest of lows?

I am by no means an actual investor but since all the stocks are dropping I thought it would be a good time to invest, I’m thinking about investing in apple stocks (19.09% drop in past month) but I don’t know when the right time is? Should I wait for it to go down a bit more or play it safe and invest now?