Hey everyone,
I wanted to hear your thoughts on Powell's recent decision not to cut interest rates.

• Do you think it's the right move considering the current economic conditions?
• How do you see this impacting the markets in the short and medium term?
• Are you expecting a rate cut later this year, or is the Fed likely to hold for longer?

Curious to hear your takes—especially from those following macro trends or managing portfolios based on rate expectations.

I know annuities can be controversial and many of them generate huge commissions for the advisor. But Jonathan Clements, a financial columnist I respect, has recommended immediate fixed annuities as part of an investment portfolio. His logic and numbers make sense to me.

I had initial talks with an advisor who only recommended one annuity from Allianz. It seemed like that was all they sold and I wasn't given a true choice (or any choice). So I know getting them from the right person is important. But the specific person Jonathan recommended, Dennis Ho who ran a website called Saturday Insurance, doesn't do it anymore. So how does one figure out what the right fixed annuity is?

I've been DCAing into VOO for a while, but now that I'm getting older (and the market is, well, where it is) I'm considering holding onto the VOO I have but reallocating my monthly contributions to a more stable fund.

Any other folks in my age bracket making similar moves? What funds are you switching to?

For context, I'm maxing out my 401(k) into a TDF and have additional holdings (stocks, ETFs, UITs, etc.) that I'm sitting on but not actively contributing to.

Okay so my previous post was asking whether it made sense for me to rotate out of high risk stocks which I have profited well on over the years. I would say most people agreed that you can’t time the market and I should have done that months ago

My follow up question is if you had a bunch of cash today, is now the time to start DCA or should we wait until after the EU retaliatory tariffs? I can see a scenario where deals will start to be made in the next few days/weeks and the market reverses.

Seems like a lot of people are talking about the timing of when they would buy back in the market. But I haven’t seen a post about what your strategy would be if you completely cashed out or had a large cash reserve and are starting from zero investments. So, in this scenario, I’m asking what your strategy would be for buying back in once you decide the time is right?

Do you find the stocks of quality companies that had the biggest dip and hope they will return to their former glory? What’s your game plan?

The way I see it, fundamentals of the US economy are in tatters for the foreseeable future. US and international index funds are all tanking at the moment, but I think there are more rational players outside the US than inside. Rational players are good for market. Is this a case for rebalancing towards international mutual funds?

The response I see most often is that this is based on population growth, especially in the US, since we have a very interesting lever other countries don't (or at least, not as much) which is immigration. Basically, open the doors a bit more, let in more folks, add more to the GDP, etc. I could get behind that, but I don't think it's a given.

So if you believe in the "always goes up eventually" mantra, DCA right now, sure. But why is the fundamental assumption true for you? Or, is there another one I'm missing?

I guess the pushback here is obvious, it's just a question of how likely you think it is: current policies become more restrictive/extended -> the US is no longer a desirable destination for economic immigrants -> population growth and GDP slows -> line doesn't always go up. I realize this is overly simplistic, but to me so is the assumption that we can sit back on population growth as assurance that eventually, the overall market always goes up and to the right.

As I'm writing this, maybe one pushback to my pushback is that sure, this net influx may decrease, but the market for US goods abroad will still increase over time. Though that's worth challenging as well: several factors could impact global population rise and certainly global disposable income.

What do you think? Am I missing something? Or is it simply a matter of. "sure that could happen but the probability is so low in my lifetime that for all intents and purposes the assumption that the S&P eventually always goes up is fine"?

Say I'm an auto company and the supply chain is structured that many of my parts have to go back and forth across the border several times. This could result in thousands of dollars in tariffs as the value of the goods being transferred is calculated at each border crossing.

Now if I'm one of those providers in Canada, what's to stop me from lowering the price of my goods by 25% and charging an administrative fee that's not subject to tariff? Something like "Line production fee" that just happens to be the exact same value as what the tariff is eating up. Or they could charge a subscription fee that allows for X number of parts to be produced per month but reduces the cost by 25%.

Seems like we're going to see a lot of this kind of creative accounting. Surely the IRS will catch th... nevermind they fired all the IRS agents.

In short: invest in accounting firms.

I’m in the middle of reorganizing some of my retirement accounts and had this random thought — can you have multiple IRAs at once? Like, I already have a Roth IRA through Vanguard, but I was thinking of opening a traditional IRA somewhere else to roll over an old 401(k). Then I started wondering… is that allowed? Or does the IRS freak out if you have more than one IRA open?

I’ve seen conflicting info online. Some places say you can open as many as you want, as long as you don’t contribute over the annual limit. Others make it sound like it’s risky or could screw up your taxes if you’re not careful with reporting. I’m not trying to max out across multiple accounts — just want to be strategic and keep things a little more organized (or maybe take advantage of different platforms for different purposes).

Also wondering if anyone’s had issues managing multiple IRAs across different custodians. Is it a hassle at tax time? Do you just combine everything when you file, or do you have to track everything separately?

If you’ve done this — had a Roth here, a traditional there, maybe even a SEP or rollover IRA in the mix — how’d it go? Smooth? Complicated? Worth it? I’m just trying not to mess up my retirement game while trying to be smart about it.

I’ve been researching how best to grow a sum of money in 2025. Sold house and have 300k to park somewhere. Looking into options that would be liquid (ie: able to access the funds within 7 days) and also options that you’d need to park for 6 months to 1 year before able to access the funds. 250k long term and 50k short liquid option.

My local national banks have a 3.25% apr option with access in 7 days. There’s credit unions that advertise 4.25% apr but have to park it for 12 months.

Are there better options to consider?

I have 2 friends that tell me they made moves at 44k to avoid the losses. We haven't discussed specifics, but they're clear they cashed out, I don't know how much, or types of accounts, other than brokerage. I tried this for COVID and learned a hurtful lesson. This time I'm riding it out. Who made the right call? We all know Buffet piled cash but I don't view his activity as "timing the market."

Today I have seen a bunch of charts that show if you miss the 10 best market days, you miss out on material gains. These charts are designed to help people understand the benefits of buy and hold. I have not seen the inverse charts. What happens if you miss the 10 worst days? I suspect the benefits will be dramatic since the adage "markets take the elevator down and the escalator up." Has anyone seen a chart of the benefits of missing the 10 worst days?

53 yrs old. I’m about 1/3 cash. Around 90k. Each day after extended hours close, I look at the prices of ITOT, VXUS, VONG. I subtract 3% from each price, and put in a day+extended limit order for each. Usually somewhere between $500-$1000 each. I plan to do this until my allocations are where I want them (I’m sure I’ll fill up my VONG allocation before the other two). I also hold bonds, VTV , and gold, but they’re already where I want them to be. Opinions on this 3% plan?

I have 7 nvidia shares and after seeing them crashing down I realised the whole stock market is broken. Im not reading any political topics or anything but I heard that all of this is trumps fault, is that really so? And what did he do? Does he really got such a big influence to the stock market? I am confused and scared to loose my money

I'm young but was hoping to retire early in ~15 years. My investments are still up overall, though gains have diminished substantially. Given the unprecedented nature of the tariffs and no hope for the market to rebound until they are rolled back, I'm seriously considering selling everything and waiting for that time. What are peoples' thoughts on this?

I submitted for a 401k loan yesterday for 50% of my balance, I signed on my end but it hasn’t been reviewed or approved yet by my company/401k company. Well now the stocks are crashing and 50% of my balance is not the same as it was yesterday, my question is will that matter and will I still receive the 50% I signed for or will the request be cancelled?

JPM analysts say Trump’s combined tariff hikes amount to a 22% increase—comparable to the largest U.S. tax rise since 1968. As a result, the bank has raised its estimated risk of a global recession to 60%, up from 40%.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/jp-morgan-raises-global-recession-risk-to-60-as-trumps-tariffs-hit-us-growth-20250403/

I know we can’t time the market, but assuming things keep going downhill for the unforeseen future, would it make sense to rebalance a lot of the stock funds in a 401k to a money market fund until the market somewhat makes a turn as to not lose too much?

I would still DCA future contributions into index funds. Thanks

Hi everyone, I believe the market is in for a wild ride (downwards). I am not saying it will - nobody knows the future - but I sure did invest since a week, ahead of the tariff announcements, in uvxz and made quite a nice profit. A bit nervous now about next week so I sold my complete position at the closing bell. I believe next week will show the long term direction of the economy and if the tariff strategy might work (I give it a 10% chance, more if countries start to make “deals” with the US). Any luck for other fellows? 🍀

Typically this would mean the market follows with a crash as well, such as what's going on right now. I'm cash heavy right now and uncomfortable, but I don't want to make a rash decisions. REITs? Gold? Volatility? Especially if you're young. (I'm 25)

There is heavy uncertainty about the negative impacts of this presidency in the US and globally. It doesn't seem like broad market equity is the obvious choice if you believe the foundation of the US is shaken.

Gold was on a pretty good run as the market has been on a steady fall. Now, with the tariff announcement, the market is falling off a cliff but gold is also slightly down.

I can't understand why this would make sense. Are people not looking to hedge with gold right now as they pull back?

I did well w those stocks in particular, but was holding out until I could use them to finally cross off my goal of owning a home in LA.

Just curious what people are doing right now given the tariffs... I'm thinking of selling 50% and then reinvesting after the tariffs get implemented.

I'm not an experienced trader by any means, not aggressive with investing, just using it to stay afloat, have retirement, fund my parents' retirement (they have none), and buy a home one day. Would love your input, thank you!

Throughout 2024 I put all my money into spy puts as I expected a significant market correction/ recession. I did this because of things such as the yield curve being so inverted for so long, the sahm rule being triggered, the fact that many of the jobs being added in the jobs reports were either in food service or the govt (which I do not take as a good sign), and PE ratios being much higher than normal. The S&P kept rally going up and up. Around mid December I had come to the conclusion that I was either missing something or that traditional indicators such as the ones I have listed we're no longer reliable in the post COVID economy, so I exited my position and bought some spy stock. Now the stock market is tanking and the put options I sold are soaring. I feel so upset and confused and lost, I have no idea what to do with my money now. Does anyone have any advice for me?

Peter Thiel has long been saying globalism was bad in the Clinton era fueling growth in a bad way. To what extent sure, I dont agree with everything Clinton did at the behest of the GOP Senate and House. But sometimes once you do something there is no going back.

Corporations are already flatly saying they cannot (will not) build the infrastructure and find the labor pool to do what the mega manufacturing cities of China and other Asian countries can do even if you tariffed them 1000%.

Thiel (especially for an immigrant) seems fixated on bringing us back to the 1960s, I suggest watching any of his interviews over the last 10 years he says the same every ime any way. He wants innovation in industry and jets for some reason (he always talks about the flight time to London). And, he says it will be bad for a big percentage of the population. At least he doesnt lie about it, a generation or two are gonna get sent to the cleaners.

Who buys american debt in this scenario? Banks wont touch it. Internationals wont touch it, With the tariffs completely screwing up FX and countries use of treasuries to make trade work. Whos buying treasuries when your gonna get smoked on your 4% 10 year when it goes to 1981 18% again?

Please explain how we are not witnessing, unless some rabbit is pulled out of a hat, the death of America Global Capitalism?

edit: for those who dont know Peter Thiel is the billionaire tech investor who is alt right. He funded JD Vances campaigns and employed him at his VC for a non-job, just a fake rubber stamp when JD says hes from VC its bullshit.

edit: Trump also saying today tariffs worked in 1700-1800s lol. America was a back country, poor relative to Europe, barely regional power even in the late 1800s. We want to go back to that? We doing the cotton gin again to make clothes? We got rid of tariffs in 1918 or something so we could income tax the robber barons

last time a President controlled a Fed chair - Nixon-Arthur Burns... Nixon forced expansionary policy (like what trump wants). The result was stagflation.

A lot of posts about missing the drops this week, so hopefully I'm not just adding to the deluge. Late last year I finally committed to creating some structure and adding diversification to my 401a and IRA (my Roth still holds a handful of individual stocks). I'm targeting 60% VTI, 20% VXUS, and 20% VXF and rebalancing every quarter. After the way things have gone this year I was about 3% overweight on foreign and eager to rebalance on 4/1 to capitalize on the discount we've had on US stocks. So I did, obviously knowing that Liberation Day was coming but that it was also a crap shoot (I assumed the tarrifs were priced in). Afterward, I'm obviously regretting not waiting to rebalance but trying to convince myself that I still got a discount and that there was no guarantee it would go the way it did. In the future should I still be as rigid in rebalancing? I'm an IT professional so having a logical plan feels right to me, for no other reason than to take out the emotion (even though it's still there).