r/politics • u/sweatycat New York • 1d ago

California to Negotiate Trade With Other Countries to Bypass Trump Tariffs

https://www.newsweek.com/california-newsom-trade-trump-tariffs-2055414
92.0k Upvotes

93% Upvoted

6.5k comments sorted by

View all comments

26.4k

u/Archer1407 1d ago

Trump is going to launch a trade war against California in the next few days.

260

u/Snow_source District Of Columbia 1d ago

I was thinking the endgame here from the current regime is to balkanize the US between Blue and Red states.

I really don't want to be right.

183

u/CanadianTrashInspect 1d ago

It doesn't even make sense because the divide is very much rural vs urban. Even California and New York - which are held as examples of big Blue States - are 38% and 43% Republican.

Both those states have extremely red regions outside of the cities. So it's unlikely that those people would side with the Democratic state government over the Republican feds.

65

u/Meta2048 1d ago

It's rural vs urban, but that's not the whole story. A NY Republican is a lot more liberal than an AK Republican. A WV Democrat is more conservative than a CA Democrat.

28

u/fiah84 1d ago

it's almost as if the entire political spectrum can't be pigeonholed in two parties, and any political system that results in just two viable parties is inherently unstable

11

u/BoutTreeFittee 1d ago

I think a WV Democrat might be more conservative than a NY Republican

10

u/glassjar1 Virginia 1d ago

Really depends upon the WV Democrat. The state has some true progressives. So do places like UT, ID, and Mississippi.

There is a serious divide--even within states.

WV even has a pro-labor, anti-racism, socialist past. (back a hundred years ago--and even then it was polarized to the point of guerilla warfare)

I'm old enough to remember the state being reliably labor democrat in my adult lifetime.

5

u/EnigmaForce Oklahoma 1d ago

Even Oklahoma had a Democratic Governor up to 2011.

5

u/atomfullerene 1d ago

I live in Rural CA and the conservatives here are absolutely not more liberal than the ones back home in TN.

3

u/xylophone_37 21h ago

Ya I'm in eastern San Diego and folks out here in the hills are pretty damn red.

2

u/Fresh_Side9944 1d ago

I'm from western NY, there are plenty of rural NY Republicans that are just the same as my husbands side from KY.

1

u/CanadianTrashInspect 1d ago

They say that - but they still voted for Donald Trump. They're pretty fucking conservative.

1

u/inconspicuous_male 22h ago

That's not true at all. Rural NY can be as conservative as Wyoming 

•

u/Jon_TWR 7h ago

I've seen Confederate flags being flown in upstate NY.

44

u/Dorkamundo 1d ago

Then the republicans would simply move, just like how when Texas was talking succession a lot of democrats were planning to move if it happened.

10

u/Wyn6 1d ago

Secession. Yes. I'm that guy. ​​

8

u/rickane58 1d ago

Nah man, Texas Democrats just hadn't had time to catch up on their HBO backlog and were tired of the Republicans spoiling it. California has a more spoiler-conscious culture.

8

u/CanadianTrashInspect 1d ago

Simply move?

6 million voters would abandon their homes and farmlands instead of fighting back?

Texas democrats are urban people. Uprooting an urban job and life is a totally different ballgame compared to the rural folks involved in agriculture.

1

u/shmehdit 1d ago

would simply move

Yeah you're telling us all we need to know about your grasp on things with this

1

u/Dorkamundo 1d ago

As if I don't understand that it's not "Simple" to move.

0

u/shmehdit 1d ago

Well that's what you wrote, along with "succession" instead of "secession"

-1

u/Dorkamundo 1d ago

Good job, you've proven that you're smarter than me. Now what?

Do you feel better? Does it solve your problems? Did it help you in any way?

8

u/NoSkillZone31 1d ago

Correction: the people who vote are 38% and 43% republican.

Voter turnout from republicans is almost always much higher. The actual demographics of the population (which matters in war) are going to be different, and most likely appreciably so in the case of CA and NY, where left leaning folks often don’t show up to polls because they don’t think it matters in a blue state.

People who are unregistered are also more likely to be left leaning, which is why a winning democrat strategy is almost always centered around getting out the vote efforts.

1

u/ROOFisonFIRE_usa 13h ago

This issue is it's less about getting the vote out and getting the voter opinion and demographics changed in gerrymandered districts. Democrats already win cities, they need to win in areas they are rigged to lose. Those voters don't vote because they subconsciously have a feel for the numbers and the gerrymandering game.

•

u/NoSkillZone31 3h ago edited 3h ago

I think you’re missing my point. I’m not talking about political strategy, but rather that there is a difference between vote totals and actual population representation.

The comment I was responding to was using vote percentages as representative of population statistics in California and New York, which is not a great way to try to evaluate who would be on what side in a war, where there isn’t a choice in whether or not someone feels like being too lazy to do it.

29

u/SCViper 1d ago

They would join. It really wouldn't take much for New York and California to seize the farms from said Republican farmers if it came down to it. And there are PLENTY of urban Democrats in those states who would love to get their hands on some land.

3

u/billsil 1d ago

I mean the Mexicans are managing the farms anyways…

12

u/Miserable_Law_6514 1d ago

I think you'd be surprised how few people even in big cities are okay with a government forcibly stealing land from its lawful owners for political reasons. Plus a lot of those owners have guns, and would burn/poison their own land out of spite.

17

u/BlueSkyBreezy 1d ago

If the political reason is "the leader of the country is intentionally plunging your state/county/city into a recession", they might be amenable. It's also highly unlikely that they would "steal" it, and would likely buy out/subsidize the farm to adopt government contracts.

3

u/Miserable_Law_6514 1d ago edited 1d ago

I doubt they will; but if they don't buy out, what do you propose? Forcing them via gunpoint? With cops who tend to be just as right-leaning if not more than the farmers? That's theft. And it tells everyone else that the state will gladly tread on you and your livelihood for anything it deems important enough.

All it takes is one farm not complying, and some trigger-happy official signing off on something harsh to galvanize people to not sell.

5

u/BlueSkyBreezy 1d ago

I can't speak to it in that level of detail being neither a farmer nor agriculture shipping expert myself, but I suspect if the state in which your farm exists decides not to allow produce to flow in/out of certain borders (unconstitutional on it's face but here we are), you can stamp your feet in the dust all you want but it's not going to move the oranges already in your orchard. California grows way more food than what they consume, so eventually farmers will have to choose between selling what they've already planted/grown, or going under.

I don't like it, but that's where I see it going.

-1

u/Miserable_Law_6514 1d ago

Definitely possible. I just don't see how fighting authoritarianism with more authoritarianism is a good thing. Once elected officials get a taste of that emergency power they have a hard time giving it up in the future. We saw that with the Patriot Act.

2

u/BlueSkyBreezy 1d ago

I may have sided with NCR in Fallout New Vegas, but the current circumstances in the US are not quite the same. Let's hope we find a Courier before a Caesar.

2

u/rubyspicer 1d ago

I mean, don't we sort of already have a Caesar...

→ More replies (0)

1

u/The-Magic-Sword Connecticut 1d ago

The correct way to fight authoritarianism is the B-26.

6

u/DumboWumbo073 1d ago

I think you forgot the part about everything collapsing

1

u/Miserable_Law_6514 1d ago

Yeah, that's not a good enough reason for everyone. People tend to bunker down when things go to hell.

4

u/DumboWumbo073 1d ago

Bunker down for what at that point it’s all over. It’s either you do something or get wiped out if you’re not part of the accepted group. That’s how these scenarios objectively have played out everytime.

4

u/blonded_olf 1d ago

What the fuck are you talking about? Seizing farms so people from cities can work them? That is without a doubt one of the most ridiculous fantasies I have ever heard.

2

u/Bakoro 1d ago

It's not the owners who are doing most of the hard labor.

1

u/SpiritGun 1d ago

A holiday in Cambodia.

1

u/Bakoro 1d ago

And what do we do with the very large number of people who get their shit taken away? We couldn't just leave them to their own devices after that.

It would start a shit fight I don't think any decent and sane wants to get into.
Cities are relatively soft and dense targets for domestic terrorism, where one person can have an enormous impact with minimal resources.

This is an extremely ugly situation to be in, and not a lot of peaceful, humane ways out.

5

u/cespinar Colorado 1d ago

They had to explain to Trump that California has the most GOP voters of any state when he was trying to withhold aid in his first term.

12

u/dimcarcosa 1d ago

This. People keep acting like each state is fully homogenized along political lines. Red and blue states done truly exist in such a blatant dichotomy, only red and blue regions within states exist on anything resembling that granular of a divide.

Sure there's a tendency for states to lean one way or the other due to political influence and results, but with the exception of the states with sparse populations most states are big blue cities, purple metro areas and red rural regions.

How do you balkanize that? I'm not even sure it's possible to divide up our country along those political lines. We're too blended politically as a people in terms so where we live even if within those political stances were the most polarized we've possibly ever been due to the efforts of those who benefit from that division.

That's the paradox of our country as it stands right now and I don't know how we deal with much less how any kind of dividing the country up into new countries/leaving the US to join whomever would even remotely look like.

15

u/bdone2012 1d ago

Im not saying this would be pleasant but you’d split the states up red vs blue. Let purple states vote on it. Then you make it as easy for people to move as possible.

Blue states can pay to help people move from red states to blue states. And maybe blue states could even help people move to red states as a way of saying if you don’t want to be part of the new American experiment buh-bye.

I have a feeling not as many conservatives would move from blue states to red states as vice versa. I have a suspicion that a fair amount of them like the higher standard of living and generally better economies and will want to stay and keep complaining.

They can use the money to help people relocate from what they save by not propping up red states with tax money

Maybe you could even take a few blue cities from red states if they’re near the border. We would be ceding some places that I’d be quite sad to see go like Nola, but at this point it doesn’t seem like the worst option.

I think id still prefer we fix this, but I really don’t want to go back to the status quo. Because that’s what got us in this mess. Our democracy is fucked because of 2 senators per state, gerrymandering, voter suppression, propaganda and the electoral college. Among other things.

You could ban all that in a new American Experiment. For propaganda it’d be less straight forward but with proper laws you could make it a lot better.

I’d like to think that conservatives have overplayed their hand. They think that because we’ve allowed them to keep a system that favors them that we should do whatever they want. I’d like to think we can put an end to it.

10

u/StarHelixRookie 1d ago

 How do you balkanize that?

India / Pakistan basically 

3

u/Hung_like_a_turtle 1d ago

It does if you assume trump can privatize and sell off enough assets in Blue States to Red Billionaires so that the billionaires still have valid wealth, leaving the Red states as poor uneducated workforce for the labor that doesn't require the skills found in blue states.

3

u/notagoodspelller 1d ago

Land doesn't vote, people do .gif showing the red/blue states by population density. https://s3files.core77.com/blog/images/960537_81_90771_DrdO3qFgW.gif

1

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[deleted]

•

u/notagoodspelller 2h ago

I was visually illustrating your comment, not contradicting it.

2

u/rorykoehler 1d ago

Rural can make shoes for $2 a day

2

u/KyleRichardsNewTeeth 1d ago

I live in LA and Unfortunately there are tonssss of areas in this city that are red. Huge truck, magat flag, don’t tread on me, red. It’s not all West Hollywood as much as we wish it was.

2

u/RiPont 1d ago

There are more Republicans in California than any state other than Texas.

2

u/DannyDOH 1d ago

I get what you're saying but the sheer economics usually win out.

If somehow the state cuts a deal and some manufacturer or farm can get their input for $10/pound vs $17/pound under tariffs, hard to see them paying the extra $7 just to be pure to their political leanings.

1

u/External_Shirt6086 23h ago

It's divide and conquer strategy. Trump and Russia don't care about the rural / urban divide. They care about a coordinated, unified United States. That's the danger to them.

14

u/larsmaehlum Norway 1d ago

That’s Putin’s wet dream right there. A fragmented United States that will turn to infighting while he helps himself to the Baltics. With the EU still being an unproven alliance he might even get away with it too.

5

u/BikingThroughCanada 1d ago

That could backfire horribly depending on who got which military assets after the breakup. Imagine an angry blue state alliance giving Ukraine (and Poland, Finland, the Baltics, etc) nuclear tech.

1

u/atomfullerene 1d ago

It's more likely both sides get military and then burn out fighting each other, leaving only ashes (possibly radioactive ones)

9

u/DataDude00 1d ago edited 1d ago

May as well just go right to civil war at that point

Most red states don’t have the economy or job prospects to survive in their be own without blue state handouts

Blue states would excel without being weighed down by constantly carrying around dead weight like Mississippi

Won’t take long before the red states become resentful and try to force reunification on their terms

[edit]Bonus points for Texas who will proudly be leader or the new Red State Alliance and take the throne as new king, only to find out they are that kid in the group project who has to do all the work while everyone else skips classes

1

u/atomfullerene 1d ago

I do not want to live in the middle of a civil war where both sides have nukes.

10

u/Papayaslice636 1d ago

I've been saying that for a long time now as well. People are quick to make Nazi and Hitler comparisons, and they aren't wrong. But Balkanization is a much more recent and realistic end to this nightmare. The parallels are sobering. I think the plot is to destroy the Union and break up the United States, creating chaos and ending our global hegemony. It's the only explanation that makes any sense given the events and observations of the last couple months.

5

u/-SexSandwich- 1d ago

Man I hope they're dumb enough for that to be the goal. The economic centers of the country are in blue states. If they want to push for a coalition of the most economically prosperous and educated states more power to them.

2

u/TheSavageDonut 1d ago

Trump and the Republicans go to California for fund-raising. He and they aren't going to give that up.

Republicans have always viewed California as an ATM that they can swing by from time-to-time.

1

u/MoonBatsRule America 1d ago

That is Putin and Xi's goal for sure.

1

u/SortaSticky 1d ago

They'd want "gerrymander" the breakup otherwise the West Coast is just going to secede.

1

u/Hexamancer 1d ago

Oh yes please, Bible belt can scream and shout about being free of wokeness as they starve to death as they spray Gatorade on their crops. 

1

u/BrainMarshal 16h ago

I've been calling for Balkanization since 2012. Back when I said this country was fucked.

America has fallen off a cliff and did the dead cat bounce since then.

1

u/mrIronHat 15h ago

the endgame here from the current regime is to balkanize the US between Blue and Red states.

Putin would love nothing more than that, but I doubt the GOP actually want a civil war or balkanized US.

The GOP want to use their control of the federal government to slowly erode away the influence of blue state while still benefiting from their economy. They have solidifiy minority rule and want to keep it that way.

1

u/morethanjustanalien 1d ago

don’t want to be on the right

Me either, so I’ll be on the left. I’m not aligning with a bunch of broke ass hillbillies from the middle of the country in any scenario.

1

u/Snow_source District Of Columbia 1d ago

I wrote "want to be right" as in "be correct in my assessment."

If you're going to quote me, quote me accurately.