r/wallstreetbets 16h ago

Discussion 5 rate cuts šŸ˜®

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2.1k Upvotes

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u/VisualMod GPT-REEEE 16h ago
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2.3k

u/CoughRock 16h ago

who's making these prediction for rate cut ? didn't jpowell explicitly said he's going to wait and see ?

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u/DPMKIV 16h ago

It's called a FED bailout...

It theoretically should ease the free fall to prevent an all-out crash.

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u/CoughRock 15h ago

adp non-farm report just came out. Much higher non-farm employment than predicted. We are screwed in term of rate cut. High unemployment and high core inflation gave jpowell easy excuse for pause rate and wait and see.

it's going to take a miracle to see rate cut now.

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u/DPMKIV 15h ago

We'll see what actually happens. I mean... they printed money when COVID hit to keep the US spending.

If this sell off starts triggering massive buying of off shore stocks due to unease in US stocks... they gotta do something to keep investors in US stocks.

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u/spookyswagg 15h ago

Ya, but inflation was at 2% then.

Inflation is predicted to rise this year, 4%, next year by >4%

Rate cuts now would just make that way worseā€¦

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u/clapsandfaps 14h ago

Honestly do they have a choice?

Not to be a doomsayer, but with rising inflation (again) due to tariffs, probable layoffs due to reduced demand on american goods due to tariffs and combine that with high interest to fight the self-induced inflation, people will default, a lot. Even domesctically produced goods will be hit with inflation due to potash tariffs.

Iā€™m seeing in my unqualified crystal ball, a depression happening.

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u/Massive-Opposite-705 14h ago

What the end goal if you print more money for a bail out just continue kicking the can down the road. Itā€™s like weā€™re building a dam that gets weaker each renovation and gets more water behind it. The longer you keep repairing it with tape and sticks the bigger the flood will be when it collapses. Let pain hit when it is supposed to hit rather than pushing it to the next generation double

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u/Syab_of_Caltrops Dirty HODLer 14h ago

The US is a world champ can kicker. You underestimate this country's can kicking skills.

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u/Krisevol 12h ago

Every world power that has fallen, did so because they kicked the can. Every one of them.

Our choice now or raise rates to 10+% and pay back the debt... Or crumble like the rest.

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u/onpg 11h ago

That worked because we were the world reserve currency. Something our Dear Leader is working very hard to end.

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u/Aquarius_Age 14h ago

It's been that way since 2008 unfortunately, apparently there's no alternative

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u/Drachos 11h ago

What you are describing is called stagflation and from the massive global experiment that was the 70s oil crisis (cause by OPEC refusing to export oil, so not a bad comparison to now) the BEST way to handle it is thus:

The reserve bank handles the inflation The government increases the safety nets And the public get ready to be raped.

The nation's whose central bank and government ignoring inflation to keep people in jobs ended up having inflation accelerate to much, wages went backwards and since they still had no oil, unemployment STILL continued to rise.

So they achieved nothing but wasted money and made things worse.

The nation that ignored everything but inflation also faired poorly, but not as poorly.

The nations who saw that no amount of government money was going to stop a lack of oil from crushing the job market so instead focused on accepting the high unemployment and catching people as they fell did best.

It freed the central banks hand to do the bloody work that needed to be done and made sure the worst of the pain fell on those who still worked.

Now obviously the price hikes and supply issues will be caused by the tarriffs this time, instead of OPEC. But the outcome is the same. The reserve bank MUST follow what it learned in the 70s and if need be publically make it clear that the safety net is government responsibility.

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u/clapsandfaps 10h ago

Yeah, this is about to get bloody, trump and safety net does not fit in the same sentence.

So short and long term puts on everything is the play?

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u/Kabouki 10h ago

Now add in one more variable. Trump moves on say Greenland as a distraction. Us oil and food exports get sanctions.

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u/Bcider 14h ago

Yes, let it crash. Hard reboot the economy. Kicking the can since 2008 has screwed everyone.

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u/-gawdawful- 14h ago

That was nearly 20 years ago. There is no hard rebooting the economy. The entire economy is based around the federal government propping up loser businesses and insanely useless tech enterprises. There is no rebuilding this house of cards.

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u/Oberschicht 13h ago

2008

That was nearly 20 years ago.

This is truly the worst news of the day

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u/Krisevol 12h ago

For the generation that will never be able to buy a house it is.

If we keep kicking the can, the next generation won't even be able to afford rent.

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u/Musicman425 15h ago

But this is purposefully self inflected. No reason to cut rates for self harm.

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u/CoughRock 15h ago

pre-covid fed is very differently than post covid fed. Before we had international trade and immigrant labor to export inflation and labor cost despite a decade of money printing.

Right now that mechanism of reduce inflation via foreign supplier is gone. The labor cost reduction via immigrant labor is also gone.
There is no longer natural competition mechanism to keep inflation down from the supply side. The fed have open excuse to control inflation from the demand side.

I'm hoping for a dovish fed, but seeing how they are just borderline bureaucratic that can be replace by a machine. I wouldn't count on it. Get your put ready

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u/G000z 14h ago

Repeat after me the White House nor the fed cares about the stock market...

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u/StanTheManBaratheon 14h ago

They have no room to do that this time.

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u/toywatch 2h ago

Jpow tanked the markets with numerous hikes till nasdaq was at 10000. His job is about the stock market, but controlling inflation and employment rates

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u/Ok-Instruction830 15h ago

More tariffs = lower rates. Itā€™s one hack economists donā€™t want you to knowĀ 

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u/4look4rd 15h ago

Itā€™s going to be a choice of getting punched in the face (high unemployment) or punched in the head (high inflation). Will probably get both.

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u/insertwittynamethere 14h ago

That's called stagflation, and the only way to beat it is typically escalating the rate to being a much higher level, not cutting, to stop the inflation first, which will cut demand, and hopefully cause prices to stabilize if not fall, but it will be a recession at the minimum all the same.

If they cut, and spending starts intensifying, while prices increase arbitrarily because of tariffs alone, then we are going to get into a situation of serious, run away inflation, which will the necessitate a very serious rate increase to stem.

That's why central banks are terrified of stagflation, because once it gets baked in, and it impacts the psychology of the market, it takes a paradigm shift in social mentality to change the perceptions of the economy enough to get out of stagflation.

The economy is as much science/mathematics as it is human psychology.

But for rn, they can not cut rates, or they risk serious inflation due to tariff price hikes alone. If anything, I am betting with high probability of a hike before the year is up as the tariffs filter throughout the economy and cause the price levels to rise. Without corresponding wage increases, moreover, people are going to struggle with their consumption, much less basic necessities.

However, since this is a tax, and not additional profit for these firms, there is no leftover money to give increases to employees without cutting into their bottom lines. We are about to witness a very 'fun' cycle of people working themselves to death for minimal return in order to just barely make it, while companies face decreasing sales domestically and internationally due to less money in people's pockets domestically and unwillingness to buy American/retaliatory tariffs shifting foreign demand away from US goods that are easily replaced.

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u/wsbgodly123 14h ago

What about kick in the nuts (sharp drop in consumer spending)?

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u/4look4rd 14h ago

Thatā€™s complementary, JPowell special.

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u/SandyBlyatCheeks 14h ago

POWELL! Right in the kisser!

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u/asetniop 14h ago

"Stags are the most virile animal out there, that's why stagflation is good for America." - someone in the administration in six months, unironically

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u/jfwelll 14h ago

Tariffs are inflationnary. Low rates are inflationnary.

Why the fed would even fuck everyone iver self inflicted policies?

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u/Much-Creme1362 15h ago

Not if they drive up inflation.

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u/spookyswagg 15h ago

I donā€™t think thatā€™s how that works my dude

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u/bangbangIshotmyself 12h ago

Also if we get a rate cut wonā€™t we see a serious escalation of inflation??

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u/mouthful_quest 10h ago

Just curious if laid off government workers whoā€™ve been given severance packages and arenā€™t allowed to report as unemployed is reflected in this non farm payrolls report?

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u/mybreakfastiscold 8h ago

Layoffs due to tariffs will begin next week and continue through May. Plenty of time for the job market to tank before June

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u/alekou8 15h ago

Btw this is exactly what trump wants

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u/suspense99 15h ago

Would you explain to me who is trying to understand this? Why would trump want this? Trying to figure out his end goal. I'm trying to learn

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u/idunnoiforget 13h ago

Listen to what Trump says about it. He wants other countries to pay their fair share through the tarrifs and stop taking advantage of America and bring back American manufacturing. And if you assume that he is not lying and means what he says then the only real logical conclusion is that he is an illiterate moron with an understanding of economics that is less than that of a second grader.

The finance YouTubers will have you believe he's intentionally crashing the economy in a 4D chess move to force the Fed to lower rates so that the national dept can be financed at a lower interest rate.

And there's the theory that he's crashing markets so he and his rich friends can buy up things for pennies on the dollar and basically copy paste the oligarch structure that was formed in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Realistically it could be a combo of the above

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u/atpplk 13h ago

And there's the theory that he's crashing markets so he and his rich friends can buy up things for pennies on the dollar and basically copy paste the oligarch structure that was formed in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

To be honest I'm pretty sure he is too dumb to plan for this kind of things, but the gang around him are not. My guess is they now what buttons to press to influence him towards their designs.

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u/BlackSquirrel05 13h ago edited 12h ago

Yeah it's the minors around him that i'm more worried about.

Not just the other billionaires behind his boys like Thiel and Yarvin.

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u/idunnoiforget 12h ago

Theil straight up joked about blending up poor people to make food. Dude wants to make network states a thing

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u/NeoMaxiZoomDweebean 12h ago

He also looked TEERIFIED when they asked him hos thoughts on that italian plumber.

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u/AGI2028maybe 12h ago

I think any of the 4d chess theories are pretty dumb. The ā€œthey crash it to buy it for cheapā€ is particularly stupid. Elon Musk is probably going to end up losing over $100,000,000,000 (if not way more) from this lol. Thereā€™s no way this is going to be net positive for him. The ā€œoligarchsā€ wealth is in the stock market so crashing it so they can buy things for cheaper is robbing Peter to pay Paul.

The reality is just: Trump isnā€™t very informed and is stuck in the past. He rightly recognizes that free trade is a race to the bottom that ends with us losing jobs to essential slave labor in undeveloped countries. Buts heā€™s also rash and stupid and belligerent so he canā€™t intelligently target the worst offenders and instead just indiscriminately tariffed everyone.

TLDR: Trump correctly identifies a problem (that other countries are disinclined to see due to the wealthy not wanting anything to change) but is also a stupid person so he puts forth a solution thatā€™s even worse.

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u/Capitalist_Space_Pig 10h ago

"He rightly recognizes that free trade is a race to the bottom that ends with us losing jobs to essential slave labor in undeveloped countries."

This is offset by the other longstanding pillar of U.S. foreign policy, which was to encourage democratic governments in all countries. Much harder to race to the bottom if the slave labor can vote.

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u/atpplk 13h ago

Because once you are deep in the only way to get money will be to sign in the military and cross the Canadian border while Don the con friends buy all properties.

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u/spookyswagg 15h ago

Inflation is predicted to rise to 4% this year and >4% next year

Without accounting for retaliatory tariffs or potential rate cuts.

Why would Jpow go and make that worse by lowering rates? Just to save the stock market?

What is more important for the Fed, inflation or stock prices?

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u/SuchCattle2750 12h ago

Inflation. Price stability is literally their only job.

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u/Inner_Honey_978 10h ago

Yes inflation, but the fed very specifically has a dual mandate that includes balancing price stability with maximum employment

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u/ric2b 15h ago

The best move for the Fed right now would be to keep rates where they are and force congress to reverse the tariffs, anything else is way too damaging for lowered rates to fix.

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u/Gh0StDawGG 15h ago

Tariffs not going anywhere. How the fed fixes šŸ„­mess will be interesting.

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u/Gh0StDawGG 15h ago

Fed bailouts are when they pump cash into the market.

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u/Intrepid00 15h ago

Not with this massive inflation Chief Chuckle Fuck is causing. You get high rates with stagflation and you like it.

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u/PantsMicGee šŸ¦šŸ¦šŸ¦ 5h ago

Fed doesn't give a shit about the market price.

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u/Old_Man_Heats 14h ago

Fuck no please, gimme the gutter I want to buy all the stock for a handjob

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u/mtbaird5687 14h ago

And I was so hoping to refinance my 7.375 mortgage...

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u/lovely_sombrero 5h ago

If there is a Fed bailout, it will be in the form of direct cash transfers to corporations and rich people, like QE after 2008. No way they are lowering interest rates even further for fears of pushing up inflation.

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u/willzyx01 16h ago

The same people who said 2024 will be a stock market blood bath year, before everything went ATH. Chase CEO.

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u/CoughRock 15h ago

people who made prediction should really have a back test success % attached to their name when making report. Otherwise you can just keep calling it red until it hit.

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u/D3kim 15h ago

the jpmorgangale

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u/Funny-Property-5336 6h ago

They were not wrong. Just early. šŸ˜…

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u/Temporary-Alarm-744 14h ago

Itā€™s an educated wish

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u/rithsleeper 15h ago

Those are based on the bond market itself. People speak with their money and the fed follows the market, not the other way around.

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u/Rrrrandle 15h ago

The feds job isn't to save the stock market, it's to keep inflation and unemployment low. Lowering rates now does nothing for either.

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u/Thatineweirdguy 15h ago

Thank you for a sane response.

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u/adrr 14h ago

Did someone tell JPowell that?

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u/ChaseballBat 13h ago

TBH JPowell is sane. I respect him for not bowing down to that idiot.

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u/Tha_Sly_Fox 10h ago

A journalist asked him about a trump quote and Powell literally said ā€œI donā€™t respond to comments made by politiciansā€ and then reiterated the Feds mandate

What a boss.

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u/Rgarza05 12h ago

I mean I was confused why Biden kept him on but he has proven to know what he is doing. He has lowered inflation without a recession.

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u/Unfair_Inspection_59 11h ago

I bet this week heā€™s all ā€œfuck this; Iā€™m out.ā€

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u/skoalbrother 3h ago

I hope he doesn't because MTG is his replacement

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u/2squishy 14h ago

Yeah the focus is probably avoiding stagflation at this point.

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u/george_pubic 13h ago

If they follow the 70s example of stagflation, rate cuts are almost certainly not in the cards. Mass unemployment hasn't hit yet and inflation is probably about to skyrocket given historically how tarrifs work. The only way rates get cut is if Peach Man fires J Pow and replaces him with a someone willing to cut rates in spite of inflation. Which, is absolutely a distinct possibility.

Calls on inflation. Puts on J Pow's upholstery.Ā 

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u/Financial-Society937 12h ago

No its not a distinct possibility. Even if trump tried to fire powell, which he technically cant and powell can refuse to go, he needs to pick someone on the current board to lead the Fed. He can't just throw kid rock or corey feldman or whoever he wants in there

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u/2squishy 11h ago

Ok but you're applying laws to this administration, it may get reversed in court a year later but they'll do it.

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u/Reasonable_Ticket_84 13h ago

The stock market, modern day CEOs and American business in general literally cannot survive without near 0 rates. They have all become drunk and incompetent after a decade of it.

The worse part is, we are all super fucked because none of us can stop it and they are taking those loans against our future to pay for their yachts now.

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u/Trotter823 12h ago

Weā€™ve been fine for the last few years on non-zero rates. The only difference is not every dumbass tech ideas get funded which Iā€™d argue is a good thing. What CEOs canā€™t adapt to is all this wishy washy back and forth trade policy.

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u/dreamerOfGains 15h ago

Get your logic outta here.Ā 

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u/-boatsNhoes 13h ago

Jobs are up. Inflation was meh last month. There will be likely 2 cuts. No more. This shit is pure copium from MSM to try to get retail to buy in .... But everyone ported in yesterday

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u/defeated_engineer 14h ago

Lowering rates help with unemployment. Cheaper to invest and grow.

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u/Bludypoo 13h ago

causes inflation

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u/JonFrost 14h ago

Ooo so we are setting up for disappointment if JPow stays the course? šŸ¤”

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u/ebitdur 16h ago

Powell shitting bricks just looking at these numbers. He simply wonā€™t cut rates in this environment, inflation will skyrocket.

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u/Kriztauf 15h ago

The Erdoğan school of economics says that cutting interesting rates is the best thing you can do to tame inflation

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u/GuyWithPants 14h ago

Agent Eroganopolos continues to report astounding success in infiltrating the Turkish government

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u/kaystared 7h ago

Eroganopolos and his Gyro Gestapo have secured the future of the Greek people (Turks)

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u/Lezzles 14h ago

We're somehow dumber than that now so it wouldn't shock me.

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u/ChaseballBat 12h ago

called it! "too soon to say" in response to cutting rates

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u/superhappykid 16h ago

Nice, enjoy that 1.25% Rate cut when you buy your $1600 iphone.

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u/averysmallbeing 16h ago

Is that the Black Friday price?Ā 

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u/preeminence 15h ago

DEI is gone, it's America Friday now

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u/LMS_THEORY_ 16h ago

*Black Thursday

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u/OGLikeablefellow 15h ago

It's like wait til Monday, eh?

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u/BillowsB 15h ago

I prefer Orange Thursday.

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u/D3kim 15h ago

Fanta Friday

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u/ngjsp 15h ago

Itā€™s liberation Friday.

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u/porktapus 15h ago

Jokes on you, I just took out a second mortgage so I'll be just fine thanks.

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u/Professional-Gear88 15h ago

Donā€™t they already cost that much?

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u/superhappykid 15h ago

I believe they are 999

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u/Fit_Combination6988 this time is different 15h ago

I already paid 1550 for my iphone a week ago

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u/Strong_Brick_9703 15h ago

buy your $1600 iphone.

Don't worry, comrade, Wendy's jobs would be starting at $40/h.

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u/BeerorCoffee 15h ago

I make much more than that behind the Wendy's.

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u/JeffTheMagical 14h ago

That's cause you don't pay tax on it

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u/whitepepsi 16h ago

Why would the fed cut rates?

The market can be fixed if Krasnov just dropped his tariffs. The fed cuts rates when the economy is in trouble and canā€™t be resolved by other means.

This is like me choking my neighbors dog and the police giving my neighbor another dog rather than just tasing me.

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u/clownysf 15h ago

Thanks for making me laugh with that analogy I needed that

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u/inquisitorthreefive 15h ago

Yeah, but that isn't going to happen.

So in an attempt to avoid a recession due to massive contraction of consumer spending, the FED is embracing inflationary monetary policy.

They all but had that soft landing nailed, but now there's some idiotstick doing donuts on their runway.

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u/Taaai 15h ago

I donā€™t get this logic honestly. Those import tariffs will be incredibly inflationary and that inflation will materialise before the recession does. How would it make sense to start cutting rates into an inflation. It would be pouring gas into flame.

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u/inquisitorthreefive 15h ago

Because if spending drops too much things start getting DEflationary and that can wipe an economy. The fact that JPOW is willing to risk hyperinflation to avoid it should tell you how bad it is.

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u/dqdg 14h ago

At least during a depression its easier to carry around a few coins for bread.

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u/ChaseballBat 12h ago

Lose lose. But they did not indicate how many cuts they are going to give this year and that their path has not really changed until they get more data.

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u/DieuEmpereurQc 16h ago

Too late, permanent damages are done to tourisms and other industries

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u/Unlucky-Leadership22 15h ago

Overly specific example, got anything you want to get off your chest?

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u/FederalExpressMan 15h ago

Thatā€™s his goalā€¦he even threatened the fed to lower rates right before ā€œliberation dayā€

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u/elonzucks 15h ago

"Why would the fed cut rates?"

Because the economy will be very fucked and it's their only tool

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u/Icommandyou Probably Smart Probably Idiot 15h ago

Wonā€™t rate cuts increase inflation which will add to tariff prices. Why will Feds go to increasing inflation route

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u/poginmydog 15h ago

Hyperinflation > deflation

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u/Protonic-Reversal 14h ago

Define greater than here. Is it more better or more worse?

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u/Emilio___Molestevez 16h ago

JPow is neither obligated nor inclined to clean up Don's mess. $SPY going under $500 after he talks.

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u/Various_Car8779 15h ago

He's obligated to step in when unemployment spikes

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u/Shot-Maximum- 15h ago

But what do you do when unemployment is high and inflation is high at the same time?

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u/alltheprivilege 15h ago

We learn to eat dog food from a can as the uber rich eat our souls.

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u/lordofming-rises 15h ago

We will be the immigrant eating dogs in street like the mighty p foresaw

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u/Zombierasputin 12h ago

Trump as Chaos deity confirmed.

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u/Various_Car8779 15h ago

Market believes fed will choose to deal with unemployment/growth. The fed doesn't think a wage price spiral is possible and neither do I. Workers can't bargain without unions

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u/Thebusinessman343 15h ago

Divided we beg united we bargain.

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u/d1stor7ed 15h ago

That is not true. Their primary responsibility is to keep inflation at 2%. This is why stagflation is the worst economic configuration.

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u/misspiggy123 15h ago

2% is a somewhat arbitrary target that was established. They can change this acceptable target rate for price stability if the new economy demands it. After all, the current administration is trying to completely alter the global economyā€¦.

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u/L4gsp1k3 14h ago

The problem, is that if they choose to change the target, the whole markedet will loose some trust in the central bank.
You can't just change your course because that has always been the target for the economy, and why change it now, and not when the 2% wasn't achievable before, why not change it back then.
ECB has already answer that question, they are not changing course, otherwise they would have done it before.

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u/crimepais 15h ago

Wrong, they have a dual mandate and cost push inflation is about to get extremely bad due to the tariffs.

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u/ChaseballBat 12h ago

it didn't spike... he literally said it is within acceptable full employement %

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u/EverythingGoodWas 15h ago

Jump in hobs data kills this argument

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u/Various_Car8779 15h ago

Backwards looking data. Market is pricing in a forward looking jobs bloodbath

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u/Viktri1 15h ago

Hell yeah brother. Letā€™s print some money. Too many dip buyers atm, I want to see them get smoked

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u/Oo00oOo00oOO 16h ago

So the market will absolutely go bonkers if there ain't any cuts?

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u/hellojabroni777 16h ago

he will force to say 25bps for sure and ā€œlets wait and see based on the data after 25bpsā€

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u/lSazedl 15h ago

Cuts are the only thing keeping this from free falling, so yes. I think he's going to keep his "wait and see" line about inflation and the market is going to kill itself.

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u/wasifaiboply 13h ago

Buddy, the market has been in free fall since mid-February and the Fed hasn't blinked. Daddy JPow does not give a fuck about your equities. I promise you.

You will hear "cuts any day now" blaring EVERYWHERE just like you have been hearing for eighteen months. They aren't coming. And a lot of people are going to get fucked up believing they are. There's a vested interest in keeping folks spending and borrowing and rate cuts provide that carrot.

Like every single time but way worse this go around due to all the moral hazard waiting for a match that appears to be lit.

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u/2keyed 16h ago

Fake and gay

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u/Infinite-Pomelo-7538 16h ago

Who in their right mind would think there are going to be five rate cuts this year? Maybe make it five 20% cuts to tariffs, and Iā€™d understand.

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u/Vincent-Thomas 14h ago

There is very low risk of Powell cutting rates. His job is keeping inflation and unemployment low. Which means him raising rates to combat tariffs

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u/oakfan05 14h ago edited 14h ago

I mean jpowell said tariff caused inflation and market crash will not be a reason to cut rates. Literally said that last month.

Edit: transitory tariff inflation

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u/Annual-Ebb-7196 16h ago

So Trump gets his rate cuts. Just needed to crash the stock market and push us into a recession to get there. And donā€™t forget inflation will be back also.

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u/LastAffect7456 15h ago

Sorry man.. Powell is more focused on inflation than saving us from a recession. Rate cuts are not in the cards IMO.. GL!

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u/alchemist615 15h ago

9-10% inflation is going to be fun again.

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u/obeytheturtles 14h ago

What will be fun is watching the media collectively ignore it because a Republican is in office.

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u/pine1501 15h ago

Hey Turkiye... watch this !

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u/AntiOriginalUsername 15h ago

Powell: ā€œwe just have to wait and seeā€

Wall Street: ā€œHereā€™s why weā€™re getting 5 rate cutsā€

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u/zelingman 14h ago

These cuts arent going to happen

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u/Fenrise 15h ago

That 100% looking an awfully lot like a 0.

Jobs are way to strong.

9

u/Vincent-Thomas 14h ago

Inflation will already skyrocket because of tarifs so no way he is cutting. He will almost certainly raise rates. But this will mean a slowdown of the economy AND worse living conditions because of raised prices.

8

u/thewisepuppet 15h ago

Yeah if you like stagflation

20

u/aedes 16h ago

Bold assumption when we just started a tariff war.Ā 

15

u/CoomerKnights 16h ago

Straight if true

13

u/Few_Bags 15h ago

gay if fake

7

u/pac1919 15h ago

So, what is the Fed supposed to do with elevated inflation? They gonna cut anyway??

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u/mzungu75 15h ago

Plummeting stocks make capital flow into bonds. I'ts simply flight to quality. People buy bonds so their prices go up. When the price of bond goes up, its yield goes down. If the spot yield goes down, so does the forward yield (as per table above). But don't confuse a price action caused by flight to quality with Fed decisions. Fed will take into account many more variables when deciding what to do.

7

u/freewilly7315 15h ago

Fake news. Speculation

6

u/TheNicestRedditor 15h ago

This is all fugazzi, only thing that matters is this fed watch tool

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u/EnoughMagician1 15h ago

I don't know how inflation is right now in the US, but cutting rates should increase it!

6

u/Draude93 12h ago

it's going to be EXACTLY 0 Rate cuts this year

5

u/alphalegend91 11h ago

JPOW literally said today that tariffs are inflationary and they are going to wait and see. People making these predictions are probably the same ones who thought we'd have 5 rate cuts in 2023 lmfao

2

u/anonymousbopper767 6h ago

Bro people were calling for rate cuts in fucking October 2022.

4

u/Healthy_Razzmatazz38 15h ago

These are not the cuts you want

3

u/GeneralKosmosa 12h ago

These truly are the most unprecedentedly regarded times

5

u/timshel42 11h ago

do people actually believe this or is cnbc just blatantly trying to con suckers?

5

u/WackyWarrior 10h ago

This is such copium.

3

u/robertw477 9h ago

With Tariff issues there may be no cuts.

3

u/Ivy0789 7h ago

This is delusional bull talk. We might get three. Maybe. If we're lucky

6

u/elpresidentedeljunta 16h ago

Man, I donĀ“t want to be in PowellĀ“s skin later. But heĀ“s gonna handle that like a boss and calm the waves a bit. Or he dumps the cold hard truth in, to get the message across that only one decision can prevent a "china syndrome."

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u/Hereiamonce 15h ago

Wait... Shouldn't rates be kept high cos all these tariffs gonna cause inflation?

2

u/farmerMac 14h ago

that would be capitulating to trump's random tariffs, i dont see it. trump will have to fire jpow to get lowered rates

2

u/biznovation 13h ago

Donā€™t hold your breath. Rates are more likely to increase should stagflation materialize (as itā€™s likely that to do so).

2

u/scarab1001 13h ago

Will cutting interest rates materially effect inflation (when the inflationary pressures are baked in by tariffs?)

2

u/sermer48 12h ago

100%? Not often you see a predicted probability guaranteeing somethingā€¦

2

u/st0nkmark3t 11h ago

This is gonna be a fuckin blood bath when JPow says rates need to go up to fix stagflation...

2

u/CAtoNC03 11h ago

this is the funniest thing ive seen all year. YAH FUCKING RIGHT

2

u/Captain_Obstinate 10h ago

There isn't a 100% probability of anything happening

2

u/lowercritic 9h ago

No rate cuts this year at this pace

2

u/NigerianPrinceClub counter-berrorists win šŸŒˆšŸ§ø 8h ago

Thatā€™s what was said last time

2

u/BushLeagueQuant 8h ago edited 3h ago

This will never happen. Weā€™ll be lucky to see 2-3, that is if they donā€™t keep them the same or hike at least once this year.

2

u/geekmasterflash 7h ago

Just gonna leave this here.

6

u/willzyx01 16h ago

This is just a probability. There is zero chance we'll get 5 cuts.

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2

u/Ragepower529 15h ago

Seems like trump is lowering interest rates one way or another

2

u/Shiba4777 15h ago

When unemployment is going to 10%.

2

u/lpr_88 15h ago

Just murder the savers wanting to earn interesting on their cash

2

u/StanTheManBaratheon 14h ago

There's exactly a zero % chance we get five rate cuts in a potentially stagflationary environment.

Hell, it's not clear we'll get two rate cuts in a potentially stagflationary environment.